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Rapid Delivery Apps in Los Angeles Are Facing a Reckoning
Samson Amore
Samson Amore is a reporter for dot.LA. He holds a degree in journalism from Emerson College. Send tips or pitches to samsonamore@dot.la and find him on Twitter @Samsonamore.
After a couple of years where pandemic lockdowns made lightning-fast, app-based delivery essential, the industry is facing a shakeout—and apps that promise delivery under 30 minutes are facing an existential crisis.
The so-called “dark store” model – which forgoes the traditional corner store for a sprawling warehouse that delivers through mobile apps – exploded during the pandemic. But many of those companies are now struggling to become profitable, largely because of rising overhead costs.
The Industry and the Challenges
At stake is a multi-billion industry aiming to deliver everything from groceries to convenience items and hot food, through bikes, cars, drones and even robots. Operating from a number of competing platforms, those companies saw sales more than double during the pandemic. Few experts see the industry disappearing entirely, but the sector is widely expected to shrink. The coming months and years will determine which model wins out.
Celia Van Wickel, senior director of digital commerce for analytics and brand consulting firm Kantar Group, told dot.LA she expects the bubble to burst—and soon, as venture firms become more discerning about their investments.
“Valuations are declining [and] money is not being forthcoming to rapid delivery companies,” Van Wickel said. Even as the economic climate becomes more challenging, some companies do have the chance to rise above the fray and gain market share – and satisfy investors – while others could be destined to go bust.
“[Investors] really want to see a profitable model, kind of akin to what we've seen in the dot-com era, where the bubble burst on ecommerce,” Van Wickel said. A lot of money was thrown into these new companies, they weren’t really profitable and then all of a sudden a lot of them collapsed.”
Some venture capital firms were “just investing to invest,” Van Wickel added, to see how the delivery market fared. She predicts they’ll soon become more judicious about who they fund. Burning cash without turning a profit isn’t going to be acceptable in the long term, she added.
Along with slackening consumer demand and less VC investment in the space, nearly every fast delivery company that relies on fulfillment centers, even Amazon, is going to face steep real estate, upkeep and staffing costs. Rapid delivery firms will need to spend big on real estate to operate fulfillment centers across cities that enable them to get to consumers fast.
Local startups Serve Robotics, URB-E, Kwibot and Duffl are trying to rise above the fray by delivering fast, to specific areas, with scooters or drones, but there’s no guarantee of success.
Image courtesy of Duffl.
Philadelphia-based GoPuff, one of the largest new rapid delivery services to enter in Los Angeles alongside DoorDash, Instacart and Uber (which also offer convenience delivery in addition to food) depends on having quick access to warehouses throughout the region. It bought liquor store chain BevMo in a bid to gain access to lucrative (and hard- to- get) liquor licenses and warehouses. It aims to save money by installing micro-fulfillment centers “within almost every” BevMo store that can service deliveries, its CEO told the L.A.Times. Still, it laid off 10% of its workforce in July after cutting about 3% in March, and shut 76 warehouses. GoPuff originally had plans to go public in mid-2022 at a $15 million valuation, but shelved them.
But GoPuff is not alone. Instacart cut its valuation forecast by 38% in March citing “poor market conditions,” and international rapid delivery startups like Gorillas, Getir and Zapp have also cut staff recently.
The layoffs suggest that rapid growth may no longer be enough.
“The GoPuff CEO basically said, ‘hey, we were getting a lot of investments by just showing top line incremental growth,’ they were growing customers and growing markets and that was okay enough for investors in 2021,” Van Wickel told dot.LA. “But now they're being pressured to really look at how their company is profitable [and] they're being asked to do this very quickly, or their investment will not be forthcoming.”
GoPuff pointed dot.LA to a recent shareholder letter that said it is “already driving 76% [year-over-year] sales growth for the core business.”
“GoPuff is the only company in this space that has proven it can be profitable at a city and regional level,” co-founders Yakir Gola and Rafael Ilishayev wrote. “We are now targeting full company profitability in 2024 while maintaining a strong cash balance throughout.”
An URB-E rider hauls deliveries in Santa Monica.
Image courtesy of URB-E
The Opportunity
Despite the headwinds, the rapid delivery industry “feels like it's here to stay,” said Alex Vasilkin, co-founder and CEO of Cartwheel, a Hollywood-based startup that makes delivery management software and recently raised a $3 million seed round in April.
“There’s all these dark kitchens opening, there are all these different startups popping up with drone delivery, and scooters delivery and hyperlocal, 15-minute delivery so I feel like there’s more options for customers and so far, we've seen it getting bigger and bigger,” Vasilkin said. Cartwheel works mainly with restaurants, but is looking to find “very big partners in mostly the alcohol space,” its co-founder Magdim Metshin told dot.LA.
The need for rapid delivery isn’t likely to disappear so long as people decide they need items fast and can’t make the trip themselves. The question is now “which companies can iron out their paths to profitability before they’re forced to go bankrupt?,” Van Wickel said.
“I think there's a balance between what the consumer wants and what behavior’s going to change,” she added. “To me, it's all about on-demand. So we're changing the model to an on-demand model… it’s changing the trip occasions out there from stocking up to more grab-and-go convenience models.”
Startups that seem poised to weather the storm are the ones that can control every aspect of the business – including supply, warehousing, distribution and, crucially, their apps. Usually, they’re seeking buyouts from larger companies that have existing infrastructure in place for this exact reason.
“I don’t think we have quite a winner yet; I think there’s [companies] that are more set up to win,” Van Wickel said, adding that it’s mostly “the companies that do have some cash on hand today to continue to iterate their business models.”
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Samson Amore
Samson Amore is a reporter for dot.LA. He holds a degree in journalism from Emerson College. Send tips or pitches to samsonamore@dot.la and find him on Twitter @Samsonamore.
https://twitter.com/samsonamore
samsonamore@dot.la
HopSkipDrive, the ridesharing company for kids and one of Los Angeles' most visible startups, laid off staff Tuesday as the pandemic ravaged growth plans.
Co-founder and CEO Joanna McFarland would not say how many of the 100-plus employees she laid off but told dot.LA that after delivering the news to the group affected over Zoom, managers held one-on-one meetings to review benefits and severance pay. Several departments were impacted including operations, branding, sales and customer support.
The latest round of layoffs follow an earlier one in March in which the company cut 10 percent of its staff, according to layoffs.fyi, a website tracking job loss.
"One of HopSkipDrive's core values is 'feel it', meaning empathy," McFarland said. "It was very important to us to show empathy to all employees and to communicate directly with both employees who were impacted and those that were not impacted."
The six-year old company, that's raised roughly $98 million, spent the summer building COVID-safe standards to prepare for an abnormal school year. Then, one after the other, school districts across the country changed plans from in-person or hybrid classes to a completely virtual curriculum.
"Schools closing has a direct and significant impact on our business," McFarland told dot.LA by email.
"These reductions are not in any way reflective of work performance but were unfortunately necessary due to the impact COVID-19 has had on our business, like many others," McFarland wrote on LinkedIn in announcing the decision.
Companies have been careful about letting go of workers remotely after startups like the e-scooter service Bird soured relationships with former employees after a poorly planned layoff round.
McFarland said that demand for this service will surge once schools reopen because it offers socially-distanced, safe transportation for schools looking to limit bus capacity.
"Schools will need to prioritize the students we primarily serve more than ever — students with special needs, students experiencing homelessness and students in the foster care system," she said. "These are the students who are likely to have the biggest learning gaps due to Covid."
LAUSD begins its entirely virtual school year on August 18.
"Schools will come back, and when they do, we are poised to take off. We will be in a position to create more opportunities for kids, for CareDrivers, for families and for our team than ever before."
Until that happens, McFarland says the company will continue operations with its partners in markets that have opened schools. It'll also support seniors with mobility needs and partners looking to use the service to fulfill meal and technology deliveries.
McFarland and two other L.A. working moms founded HopSkipDrive in 2014 to help parents juggling hectic schedules. Unlike rideshare companies that bar underage riders, HopSkipDrive was designed for children as young as six.
In February, HopSkipDrive announced a $22 million funding round to expand its operations in new cities, dot.LA reported. Months before, in November of 2019, the company relocated its office to ROW DTLA and began a sizable hiring push across departments.
The service, now offered in 14 markets across eight states and Washington D.C., is expanding to Midland, Texas this coming school year to support Midland Independent School District.
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Francesca Billington
Francesca Billington is a freelance reporter. Prior to that, she was a general assignment reporter for dot.LA and has also reported for KCRW, the Santa Monica Daily Press and local publications in New Jersey. She graduated from Princeton in 2019 with a degree in anthropology.
https://twitter.com/frosebillington
francesca@dot.la
Watch: Three Experts on How Office Life Will Change After the Pandemic
03:16 PM | June 30, 2020
Offices are likely to get bigger, not smaller. Major cities could hollow out. And more people will work remote.
Those are some of the takeaways from dot.LA's virtual strategy session held Tuesday on the future of commercial real estate with Brendan Wallace, co-founder and managing partner at Fifth Wall; Justin Bedecarre, co-founder and CEO of HelloOffice and Jen Nguyen, founding partner of TEAMWERC.
We've rounded up three major points from the discussion below. Watch the full event below, and sign up for our newsletter to get notified of future events.
Smaller Cities Are Attracting More Knowledge Workers
"Cities are in a fight for knowledge workers, they definitionally are. They want that tax base. They want that revenue base. They will try to appeal probably to younger, more mobile millennial, Gen Z workers and attract them directly and say, 'well once there's a core base in Salt Lake City, or in Wichita, or in Tampa well, that company will have to open an office there.'
It's more of a government to consumer marketing strategy than a government to corporation marketing strategy, and we're in the very early innings of that. And so, that literally would not have been possible. I think if two things hadn't happened, one, the forward progress of cloud-based collaboration tools didn't exist...And the second thing is (if) COVID hadn't happened because COVID was this unplanned forced test of the integrity of those tools and the integrity of a workforce that's working remote."
— Brendan Wallace, Fifth Wall
More Employees Will Work Hybrid
"The vast percentage of employees will be flexible.. And so they'll be close to a workplace. Maybe they'll work five days a week, maybe they'll work in the office one to two days a week, and go to the office to make plans to collaborate with their team to jam on the whiteboard.
"I think, at least you know 70 to 75% of all employees will be adopting the hybrid model."
— Justin Bedecarre, HelloOffice
At the Office, There's More Space
"We've seen the loss of 40% of real estate...because of the six-feet social distance.
"In some cases where we're talking about the knowledge-based tech workers, typically in San Francisco, you're seeing an average of 100 to 250 square foot per person. Now, after layering the social distance guidelines of the minimum six foot — which we don't even know today, if that is enough — you're needing at least 300 to 350 square feet more per person."
— Jen Nguyen
Copy of dot.LA Strategy Session: Office 2021, in Partnership with HelloOfficewww.youtube.com
Jen Nguyen, Founding Partner of TEAMWERC
Jen Nguyen, Founding Partner of TEAMWERC
Jen Nguyen is a founding partner of TEAMWERC, delivering best in class turnkey workplace as a service. She has a back to back track record building hyper growth inclusive award winning workplaces from the ground up. Founding workplace leader at Pinterest, Zynga, Tesla Motors and SAP Successfactors from their infancy through IPOs.
TEAMWERC will create a mindshift in how you approach your workplace bridging the gap between people and places, offering a plug and play expert team embedded into your organization.
Brendan Wallace, co-founder & managing partner at Fifth Wall
Brendan Wallace, Co-Founder & Managing Partner at Fifth Wall
Brendan Wallace is a co-founder and managing partner at Fifth Wall, where he guides the firm's strategic vision.
Prior to starting Fifth Wall, Brendan co-founded Identified, a workforce optimization data and analytics company that raised $33 million of venture funding and was acquired by Workday (NYSE: WKDY) in 2014. He also co-founded Cabify, the largest ridesharing service in Latin America, and has been an active investor, leading more than 60 angel investments including Bonobos, Dollar Shave Club, Lyft, SpaceX, Clutter, and Philz Coffee.
Brendan started his career at Goldman Sachs in the real estate, hospitality, and gaming group before joining The Blackstone Group's real estate private equity practice.
Brendan is from New York City and currently lives in Venice. He graduated from Princeton University, where he received his BA in political science and economics. He received his MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
Justin Bedecarre, Co-Founder & CEO of HelloOffice
Justin is Co-Founder and CEO of HelloOffice. a modern commercial real estate brokerage on a mission to help everyone find a workplace they love. By empowering experienced brokers with innovative technology, HelloOffice turns the painful traditional process of searching for office space into a faster and more collaborative experience.
From headquarters to hybrid workplaces, HelloOffice works with companies like Palantir, Y Combinator, Afterpay, Brex and many others around the world.
Justin started HelloOffice in 2016 in San Francisco, and before that co-founded 42Floors which was acquired by Knotel.
Ben Bergman, Senior Reporter
Ben Bergman, Senior Reporter at dot.LA
Ben Bergman is the newsroom's senior reporter, covering venture capital. Previously he was a senior reporter/host at KPCC, a producer at Gimlet Media and NPR and produced two investigative documentaries for KCET. He has been a frequent on-air contributor to NPR and Marketplace and has written for The New York Times. Bergman was a 2017-2018 Knight-Bagehot Fellow in Economic and Business Journalism at Columbia Business School. He enjoys skiing, playing poker, and cheering on The Seattle Seahawks.
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Annie Burford
Annie Burford is dot.LA's director of events. She's an event marketing pro with over ten years of experience producing innovative corporate events, activations and summits for tech startups to Fortune 500 companies. Annie has produced over 200 programs in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York City working most recently for a China-based investment bank heading the CEC Capital Tech & Media Summit, formally the Siemer Summit.
http://www.linkedin.com/in/annieburford
annie@dot.la
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