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Rapid Delivery Apps in Los Angeles Are Facing a Reckoning
Samson Amore
Samson Amore is a reporter for dot.LA. He holds a degree in journalism from Emerson College. Send tips or pitches to samsonamore@dot.la and find him on Twitter @Samsonamore.
After a couple of years where pandemic lockdowns made lightning-fast, app-based delivery essential, the industry is facing a shakeout—and apps that promise delivery under 30 minutes are facing an existential crisis.
The so-called “dark store” model – which forgoes the traditional corner store for a sprawling warehouse that delivers through mobile apps – exploded during the pandemic. But many of those companies are now struggling to become profitable, largely because of rising overhead costs.
The Industry and the Challenges
At stake is a multi-billion industry aiming to deliver everything from groceries to convenience items and hot food, through bikes, cars, drones and even robots. Operating from a number of competing platforms, those companies saw sales more than double during the pandemic. Few experts see the industry disappearing entirely, but the sector is widely expected to shrink. The coming months and years will determine which model wins out.
Celia Van Wickel, senior director of digital commerce for analytics and brand consulting firm Kantar Group, told dot.LA she expects the bubble to burst—and soon, as venture firms become more discerning about their investments.
“Valuations are declining [and] money is not being forthcoming to rapid delivery companies,” Van Wickel said. Even as the economic climate becomes more challenging, some companies do have the chance to rise above the fray and gain market share – and satisfy investors – while others could be destined to go bust.
“[Investors] really want to see a profitable model, kind of akin to what we've seen in the dot-com era, where the bubble burst on ecommerce,” Van Wickel said. A lot of money was thrown into these new companies, they weren’t really profitable and then all of a sudden a lot of them collapsed.”
Some venture capital firms were “just investing to invest,” Van Wickel added, to see how the delivery market fared. She predicts they’ll soon become more judicious about who they fund. Burning cash without turning a profit isn’t going to be acceptable in the long term, she added.
Along with slackening consumer demand and less VC investment in the space, nearly every fast delivery company that relies on fulfillment centers, even Amazon, is going to face steep real estate, upkeep and staffing costs. Rapid delivery firms will need to spend big on real estate to operate fulfillment centers across cities that enable them to get to consumers fast.
Local startups Serve Robotics, URB-E, Kwibot and Duffl are trying to rise above the fray by delivering fast, to specific areas, with scooters or drones, but there’s no guarantee of success.
Image courtesy of Duffl.
Philadelphia-based GoPuff, one of the largest new rapid delivery services to enter in Los Angeles alongside DoorDash, Instacart and Uber (which also offer convenience delivery in addition to food) depends on having quick access to warehouses throughout the region. It bought liquor store chain BevMo in a bid to gain access to lucrative (and hard- to- get) liquor licenses and warehouses. It aims to save money by installing micro-fulfillment centers “within almost every” BevMo store that can service deliveries, its CEO told the L.A.Times. Still, it laid off 10% of its workforce in July after cutting about 3% in March, and shut 76 warehouses. GoPuff originally had plans to go public in mid-2022 at a $15 million valuation, but shelved them.
But GoPuff is not alone. Instacart cut its valuation forecast by 38% in March citing “poor market conditions,” and international rapid delivery startups like Gorillas, Getir and Zapp have also cut staff recently.
The layoffs suggest that rapid growth may no longer be enough.
“The GoPuff CEO basically said, ‘hey, we were getting a lot of investments by just showing top line incremental growth,’ they were growing customers and growing markets and that was okay enough for investors in 2021,” Van Wickel told dot.LA. “But now they're being pressured to really look at how their company is profitable [and] they're being asked to do this very quickly, or their investment will not be forthcoming.”
GoPuff pointed dot.LA to a recent shareholder letter that said it is “already driving 76% [year-over-year] sales growth for the core business.”
“GoPuff is the only company in this space that has proven it can be profitable at a city and regional level,” co-founders Yakir Gola and Rafael Ilishayev wrote. “We are now targeting full company profitability in 2024 while maintaining a strong cash balance throughout.”
An URB-E rider hauls deliveries in Santa Monica. Image courtesy of URB-E
The Opportunity
Despite the headwinds, the rapid delivery industry “feels like it's here to stay,” said Alex Vasilkin, co-founder and CEO of Cartwheel, a Hollywood-based startup that makes delivery management software and recently raised a $3 million seed round in April.
“There’s all these dark kitchens opening, there are all these different startups popping up with drone delivery, and scooters delivery and hyperlocal, 15-minute delivery so I feel like there’s more options for customers and so far, we've seen it getting bigger and bigger,” Vasilkin said. Cartwheel works mainly with restaurants, but is looking to find “very big partners in mostly the alcohol space,” its co-founder Magdim Metshin told dot.LA.
The need for rapid delivery isn’t likely to disappear so long as people decide they need items fast and can’t make the trip themselves. The question is now “which companies can iron out their paths to profitability before they’re forced to go bankrupt?,” Van Wickel said.
“I think there's a balance between what the consumer wants and what behavior’s going to change,” she added. “To me, it's all about on-demand. So we're changing the model to an on-demand model… it’s changing the trip occasions out there from stocking up to more grab-and-go convenience models.”
Startups that seem poised to weather the storm are the ones that can control every aspect of the business – including supply, warehousing, distribution and, crucially, their apps. Usually, they’re seeking buyouts from larger companies that have existing infrastructure in place for this exact reason.
“I don’t think we have quite a winner yet; I think there’s [companies] that are more set up to win,” Van Wickel said, adding that it’s mostly “the companies that do have some cash on hand today to continue to iterate their business models.”
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Samson Amore
Samson Amore is a reporter for dot.LA. He holds a degree in journalism from Emerson College. Send tips or pitches to samsonamore@dot.la and find him on Twitter @Samsonamore.
https://twitter.com/samsonamore
samsonamore@dot.la
People Who Bought the LA Times NFT Claim the Newspaper Scammed Them
04:00 AM | January 31, 2023
Last year, on the day of the 2022 Super Bowl, the Los Angeles Times announced they would be selling limited-edition collectible NFTs. At the time, a local newspaper getting into the NFT game seemed like an unlikely twist. But given that other publishing brands – including TIME Magazine and the New York Times – jumped headfirst into the hype a year prior, it wasn’t so surprising.
But since the announcement, buyers in the official Discord server set up by the Times alleged the entire project was a scam. “You and your team have no credibility,” one person said of the LA Times last June. “Just admit that we were scammed and our NFT's are worthless.”
The Times sold most of the NFTs for around $30. But the most expensive, a digital copy of the LA Times’ front page from Feb. 13 commemorating the Ram’s win, received bids as high as $4,000.
The problems with the Times’ NFT drop, however, began early. On the day the project went live, some users chimed in to the Discord to question GuardianLink, the Indian blockchain company tapped to set up the infrastructure for selling the NFTs. GuardianLink also operates the exchange BeyondLife.club, where the NFTs were traded.
Within a day of the launch, buyers also expressed concerns about their ability to resell the NFTs, since they were being traded on a foreign exchange where the NFL’s brand carries less heft.
Some read the project’s fine print, which stated that “you shall have the limited ability to sell or transfer your LA Times NFT,” and one user in the Discord noted that the sale would be voided and the owner of the NFT could lose their license if they tried to sell it on another platform. Many users expressed the desire to trade on OpenSea, a popular North American NFT exchange, instead.
In response to these concerns, one moderator from GuardianLink promised users on Feb. 14, 2022 that they would “soon” be able to trade their NFTs on other marketplaces, a promise that the buyers on Discord claim never came to fruition.
As one potential buyer pointed out in the Discord, “this isn't how NFTs work, or any merch/collectives actually. Since when [does] the company you buy something from keep the rights to control what you do with it.”
In the months after the announcement, skepticism morphed into concern, then outright anger as mods stopped responding to inquiries last September. “Bunch of crooks,” one buyer wrote in the Discord following the radio silence. “None of them give a s—.”
That same month, another Discord user said, “mods are not even online on this server. No communication… Just dead. We have been royally rugged!!”
One buyer claimed their only recourse was to take “legal action.” Though to date, no one has filed suit against the Times with regard to this situation.
It’s unclear how much total money was lost on the Times’ NFT sale. Vishal Master, a buyer from India, told dot.LA he lost $150, adding that he bought several NFTs ranging from $30- $50. Another buyer in the Discord said last June they lost $100.
According to LA Times spokesperson Hillary Manning, the blame resides with the crypto market. “While the offering was well-received, the overall NFT market declined – and later crashed – after we concluded the auction,” Manning said. “We understand the disappointment the NFT holders have experienced and have worked with our partner in good faith to address the feedback they received from holders, specifically by providing other items of value.”
Those items, according to Manning, included free digital subscriptions to the LA Times and discounts to its online store and were granted as a way to provide “other items of value” to disgruntled buyers.
Master, however, said he’d never heard from the Times about any of this. “Many tried but gave up” getting refunds, he added. “That NFT flopped and it surely was to dupe people [out of] money.”
In addition, the Times also offered buyers an additional free NFT. Master said he never received the free NFT either. Adding that even if he had, he and other buyers wouldn’t be able to sell those NFTs since they were still offered on GuardianLink’s BeyondLife platform. Which he added had meager demand, because the exchange is based in Asia, where fewer people have heard of the LA Times.
Ultimately, the ordeal caused some people in the Discord to question whether or not the trusted newspaper brand was even affiliated with the project. That said, the site where the NFTs were sold remains live and the Times appears to still be selling them.Read moreShow less
Samson Amore
Samson Amore is a reporter for dot.LA. He holds a degree in journalism from Emerson College. Send tips or pitches to samsonamore@dot.la and find him on Twitter @Samsonamore.
https://twitter.com/samsonamore
samsonamore@dot.la
Why This Monk-Turned-Entrepreneur Is Betting His NFT Lounge Can Survive the FTX Fallout
05:00 AM | February 15, 2023
Photo: Rafi Lounge
Set in the foothills of Eastern Malibu across the street from Robert de Niro’s Nobu, the Rafi Lounge, a NFT-powered wellness center and coworking space, somehow looks like both a beachfront country club and a swank monastery. On a clear day, you can see Catalina Island across the ocean. The sign above the entrance says, “Welcome, please allow us to reintroduce you to yourself.”
Pushing through the braided rope entryway and passing a tranquil stone Buddha head waterfall, I arrived just after a yoga class former playboy model-turned “Dancing With the Stars” host Brooke Burke finished. The central open space that usually houses yoga mats or stationary bikes has been cleared off, and the giant projection screen behind the small stage is playing a tranquil plant video – an hour earlier, a larger-than-life Burke was on it helping clients “booty burn.”
The building – which used to belong to a venture capital firm – has been totally transformed to look like nature’s reclaimed it, dotted with lemon trees and cloaked in ornamental faux grass carpeting. Buddha statues are in every corner, some larger than five feet. On the way to one yoga room, there’s a small shop selling pricey essential oils, Rafi Lounge merch, and CBD gummies. On the wall of the shop hang three breathtakingly detailed portraits of indigenous peoples made by the founder with charcoal. There’s some construction ongoing, as they’re converting former corner offices into hot yoga saunas and a spa.
On the day of my visit, the place is bustling with staff who are lugging boxes of Himalayan salt panels to install in the hot yoga room. Israeli-born Kung-Fu master and former monk Rafi Anteby, the founder of the eponymously named space, tells me that after our chat he plans to paint them all black to match the walls. No detail is too small to notice, something evident in his Mandala work.
Rafi Lounge founder, Rafi Anteby, pictured here with his Mandala and sand collections. Photo: Rafi Lounge
The Rafi Lounge opened last year on November 10—the day before crypto exchange FTX went bankrupt. “Everyone said Rafi, go into a shutdown, don’t do it,” Anteby said. “I said I can't, because I pre-sold to members and I promised them [the launch is] what will happen.”
Still, Anteby felt he couldn’t renege on his promise to open the lounge to those who did buy in, so he forged ahead. So, what do NFTs have to do with a wellness center?
Each, according to Anteby, corresponds to a level of access. The least expensive, Unity, is the lowest tier and gives holders access to virtual classes. The second tier, Mindful, encompasses physical and virtual access to the Lounge. And the highest tier selling for $5,500, Awakened, are the ones Rafi is selling individually that act as an all-access pass to the Lounge and its benefits and events (including, Anteby said, “spiritual yacht parties”). Both Mindful and Awakened NFTs are lifetime memberships to Rafi Lounge, and include free access to annual retreats it hosts.
But facing the changing seasons of the crypto market and unwilling to sacrifice his brand by letting the Rafi Lounge tokens be resold to oblivion on public markets, Anteby took the drastic step to control his NFT inventory – buying up the remainder a mere day after the minting.
Anteby admitted he “lost a quarter of a million dollars” between creating and buying the NFTs back. But he said it was worth it: “I'm going to take each because I want to control who's coming to my lounge. I want to know that they will be my advocates as well.”
A view of the Rafi Lounge in the afternoon, before a yoga class. Photo: Rafi Lounge
Currently, there are 100 members, 55 of which are lifetime NFT holders. The 6,000 square-foot rooftop lounge is also open to the public. Which is to say, anyone can buy a 10-day pass for $250, pay the $40 fee for individual classes or come to public events. One of those people is Amie Yaniak who was diagnosed with stage four cancer last May that has since metastasized into her bones.
“I’ve never been anywhere like this. This was the first class I’ve done since the cancer, and it was just so cleansing,” Yaniak says. While she’s not a member, Yaniak told me she was interested in returning for more classes.
In addition to people like Yaniak, Anteby is also curating a more select crowd of well-to-do celebrities that can act as brand ambassadors for the lounge. He said he wants it to be a sort of more laid-back SoHo house, where top minds converge on the Pacific Ocean to make deals and network. Some of the names dropped during my tour of the property included Jamie Foxx (who Anteby calls a good friend), Chris Noth, Gladys Knight, and Equinox co-founder Lavinia Errico, whom I actually briefly met, since she’s a member of the Lounge’s advisory board.
The lounge's entryway and check-in. Photo: Samson Amore
As Tame Impala wafts from the lounge’s speakers, Anteby tells me stories of getting Taoist monks drunk at karaoke bars and studying medical qigong and tai chi in China. Anteby hung the intricate mandalas on the walls of a yoga room and he says they take around two years to complete as he carefully places individual grains of sand and uses tree sap to preserve their form. The mandalas are meant to be a contemplation of man’s relationship with nature, which is partly why Anteby designed the NFT versions of them to resemble a sort of elemental fusion that combines water, fire and earth.
Owning an NFT also corresponds to owning a fraction of the Malibu Mandala Rafi made that hangs in the lounge.
Anteby, right, speaks with a partner at his lounge in Malibu.Photo: Samson Amore
While Anteby admits the launch hasn’t netted him any profits yet and said he’s out around $1 million launching the place, he’s determined to turn the Rafi Lounge into a franchise and has plans to open future locations in other cities big into tech and wellness like Miami, Scottsdale, Ariz., Newport Beach, and Austin.
Besides the obvious cases like Yaniak’s, Anteby said he thinks the larger tech community needs a breather. “They all have digital burnout,” he said. “It's more than just me helping you to breathe. You need to take care of yourself, and here people do that all the time.”
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Samson Amore
Samson Amore is a reporter for dot.LA. He holds a degree in journalism from Emerson College. Send tips or pitches to samsonamore@dot.la and find him on Twitter @Samsonamore.
https://twitter.com/samsonamore
samsonamore@dot.la
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