
Get in the KNOW
on LA Startups & Tech
XCan Netflix Keep Growing?
Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake

With more than 200 million subscribers and intense competition from the likes of Disney and HBO Max, can Netflix keep its big lead in the streaming wars?
Financially, Netflix has never been better off. It has forecast its cash flow to break even in 2021. If it does, that would eliminate, for the first time, the company's need to raise external financing for its day-to-day operations.
That's in part because the company raised its subscription price last year, by $1 for the standard option and $2 for premium, and still added a record 37 million new subscribers. But as the pandemic winds down and competition heats up, it's unclear whether it will be able to sustain the pace.
According to analytics firm JustWatch, Netflix's market share in the U.S. is already on the decline.
And the debt that has financed much of their enormous content library looms. In its most recent earnings report, the company's balance sheet showed nearly $8 billion due within one year, and an additional $20 billion further down the road. Flush with cash, however, it recently pledged to cut its debt load to a sustained level of $10 billion to $15 billion.
The question now is how Netflix can wind down that debt while simultaneously growing its revenues. Having already expanded to over 190 countries, there are few new markets to tap. Can Netflix squeeze more subscribers out of its current markets? Or might it continue looking to squeeze more out of existing subscribers' wallets?
At its earnings call on Tuesday, Netflix may offer some answers on how it plans to keep ahead of the pack. Analysts see the streamer, whose shares are trading near record-high levels, at a pivotal moment. Here is what some of them are expecting ahead of the first-quarter earnings call:
Shrinking Profitability in the Short-Term…
One reason why Netflix's financials were so strong last year is that the pandemic forced it to reduce spending on content production. Subscribers piled in anyway, and the company was able to make up for some of the shortfall by leaning into animation. But in the near-term, that slowdown may have consequences.
"We believe that the leaner content pipeline going into 2021 could very well influence subscriber growth," wrote Moody's analyst Neil Begley in his most recent note.
...But Long-Term Growth
Although Netflix is likely to increase the billions of dollars it already spends on making and buying shows and films, analysts still believe it's poised for profitability by next year.
"We know that the company has launched in every market, and that original content investment reached a tipping point in 2020," wrote Justin Patterson and Sergio Segura, analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets, in their most recent Netflix note. "Even with healthy reinvestment in content, we believe this positions the company toward sustainable [free cash flow] generation beginning in 2022."
Moody's analysts also expect Netflix to continue adding subscribers over a longer period, projecting the streamer to hit 250 million subscribers globally by late 2022.
Higher Quality Programming
Most analysts think Netflix is likely to increase the quality of its programming.
Michael Pachter and Alicia Reese, analysts at Wedbush Securities, pointed to Netflix's recent licensing deal with Sony, which will give the streamer exclusive rights to Sony's films after their theatrical and home entertainment runs for five years, starting in 2022. Netflix will also get first-look rights on Sony's direct-to-streaming content, some of which it has pledged to produce.
"While the financial terms were not disclosed, it has been widely reported that Netflix will pay over $1 billion for the deal," they wrote in their most recent Netflix note. "This is meaningful for Netflix as many of its earlier exclusive licensing deals have expired, the content pulled back by studios such as Disney to shore up their competing streaming services."
Improving the quality of its content should allow Netflix to increase prices, KeyBanc analysts wrote. This past year's hikes didn't seem to repel customers, suggesting they may yet be willing to pay more, despite the many alternatives consumers now have.
But Maybe a Future Market Sell-Off?
Despite Netflix's strong 2020, Wedbush analysts called it overvalued and issued a price target of $340, nearly 40% below its current level.
"We have been consistently wrong about Netflix, but optimism about the company's potential to generate free cash flow growth of more than $1 billion per year [which, they note, is what the company's current valuation implies] seems to us to be misplaced," the note said.
- Netflix Sees YouTube, Not Disney, As Its Bigger Threat - dot.LA ›
- Will Netflix, Hulu or Disney Plus Buy LA's Cinerama Dome? - dot.LA ›
- Disney Plus Subscribers Are Growing Faster Than Expected - dot.LA ›
- Netflix Earnings Beat Expectations - dot.LA ›
- Netflix Sees YouTube as Its Biggest Threat - dot.LA ›
- Netflix Opens an Online Shop, Taking a Page from Disney - dot.LA ›
- Analysts Say Gaming and Shopping Won't Save Netflix - dot.LA ›
- Netflix Growth Stalls in the U.S. and Canada - dot.LA ›
- The Latest Signs of Netflix’s Loosening Grip - dot.LA ›
- 'Squid Game' Helps Netflix Add 4.4 Million Subscribers in Q3 - dot.LA ›
- Netflix Testing Extra Charge For Users Who Share Passwords - dot.LA ›
- Netflix Employees Could Face More Layoffs as Stock Falls - dot.LA ›
Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake
Subscribe to our newsletter to catch every headline.
Plus Capital Partner Amanda Groves on Celebrity Equity Investments
On this episode of the L.A. Venture podcast, Amanda Groves talks about how PLUS Capital advises celebrity investors and why more high-profile individuals are choosing to invest instead of endorse.
As a partner at PLUS, Groves works with over 70 artists and athletes, helping to guide their investment strategies. PLUS advises their talent roster to combine their financial capital with their social capital and focus on five investment areas: the future of work, future of education, health and wellness, the conscious consumer and sustainability.
“The idea is if we can leverage these people who have incredible audiences—and influence over that audience—in the world of venture capital, you'd be able to help make those businesses move forward faster,” Groves said.
PLUS works to create celebrity partnerships by identifying each client’s passions and finding companies that align with them, Groves said. From there, the venture firm can reach out to prospective partners from its many contacts and can help evaluate businesses that approach its clients. Recently, PLUS paired actress Nina Dobrev with the candy company SmartSweets after she had told them about her love for its snacks.
Celebrity entrepreneurship has shifted quite a bit in recent years, Groves said. While celebrities are paid for endorsements, Groves said investing allows them to gain equity from the growth of companies that benefit from their work.
“Like in movies, for example, where they're earning a residual along the way, they thought, ‘You know, if we're going to partner with these brands and create a tremendous amount of enterprise value, we should be able to capture some of the upside that we're generating, too’,” she said.
Partnering in this way also allows her clients to work with a wider range of brands, including small brands that often can’t afford to spend millions on endorsements. Investing allows high-profile individuals to represent brands they care about, Groves said.
“The last piece of the puzzle was a drive towards authenticity,” Groves said. “A lot of these high-profile artists and athletes are not interested, once they've achieved some sort of level of success, in partnering with brands that they don't personally align with.”
Hear the full episode by clicking on the playhead above, and listen to LA Venture on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
dot.LA Editorial Intern Kristin Snyder contributed to this post.
Rivian Stock Roller Coaster Continues as Amazon Van Delivery Faces Delays
David Shultz is a freelance writer who lives in Santa Barbara, California. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, Outside and Nautilus, among other publications.
Rivian’s stock lost 7% yesterday on the back of news that the company could face delays in fulfilling Amazon’s order for a fleet of electric delivery vans due to legal issues with a supplier. The electric vehicle maker is suing Commercial Vehicle Group (CVG) over a pricing dispute related to the seats that the supplier promised, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The legal issue could mean that Amazon may not receive their electric vans on time. The dispute hinges on whether or not Commercial Vehicle Group is allowed to raise the prices of its seats after Rivian made engineering and design changes to the original version. Rivian says the price hike from CVG violates the supply contract. CVG denies the claim.
Regardless, the dispute could hamper Rivian’s ability to deliver electric vans to Amazon on time. The ecommerce/streaming/cloud computing/AI megacorporation controls an 18% stake in Rivian as one of the company’s largest early investors. Amazon has previously said it hopes to buy 100,000 delivery vehicles from Rivian by 2030.
The stock plunge marked another wild turn for the EV manufacturer. Last week, Rivian shares dropped 21% on Monday after Ford, another early investor, announced its intent to sell 8 million shares. The next few days saw even further declines as virtually the entire market saw massive losses, but then Rivian rallied partially on the back of their earnings report on Wednesday, gaining 28% back by Friday. Then came yesterday’s 7% slide. Today the stock is up another 10%.
Hold on tight, who knows where we’re going next.
David Shultz is a freelance writer who lives in Santa Barbara, California. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, Outside and Nautilus, among other publications.
Snapchat’s Attempt to Protect Young Users From Third-Party Apps Falls Short
Kristin Snyder is an editorial intern for dot.la. She previously interned with Tiger Oak Media and led the arts section for UCLA's Daily Bruin.
Some Snap Kit platform developers have skirted guidelines meant to make the app safer for children.
A new report from TechCrunch released Tuesday found that some third-party apps that connect to users’ Snap accounts have not been updated according to new guidelines announced in March. The restrictions, which target anonymous messaging and friend-finding apps, are meant to increase child safety. However, the investigation found a number of apps either ignore the new regulations or falsely claim to be integrated with Snapchat.
The Santa Monica-based social media company announced the changes after facing two separate lawsuits related to teen suicide allegedly caused by the app. Over 1,500 developers integrate Snap features like the camera and Bitmojis. Snap originally claimed the update would not affect many apps.
Developers had 30 days to revise their software, but the investigation found that some apps, such as the anonymous Q&A app Sendit, were granted an extension. Others blatantly avoided the changes—the anonymous messaging app HMU, which is now meant for adult users, is still available to users "9+" in the App Store. Certain apps that have been banned from Snap, like Intext, still advertise Snapchat integration.
“First and foremost, we put the privacy and safety of our community first and expect the products built by our developer community to adhere to that standard in addition to bringing fun and positive experiences to people,” Director of Platform Partnerships Alston Cheek told TechCrunch.
The news is a blow to Snap’s recent efforts to cast itself as a responsible social media platform The company recently announced Colleen DeCourcy would take over as the company’s new chief creative officer and CEO Evan Spiegel to recently made a a generous personal donation to graduates of Otis College of Art and Design. The social media company currently faces a lawsuit from a teenager who claims it has not done enough to protect minors from sexual exploitation. In April, 44 attorney generals sent a letter to Snap and TikTok urging the companies to strengthen parental controls.
Lawmakers are considering new policies that would hold social media companies accountable for the content on their platforms. One such bill would require social media companies to share data with independent researchers.
Snapchat recently rolled out augmented reality shopping features and influencer-led original content to grow its younger base of users.
Snap Inc., Snapchat's parent company, is an investor in dot.LA.
Kristin Snyder is an editorial intern for dot.la. She previously interned with Tiger Oak Media and led the arts section for UCLA's Daily Bruin.