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Prediction: LA's Startup Shakeout Will Continue Into 2023, Setting Survivors Up for Long-Term Success
Spencer Rascoff
Spencer Rascoff serves as executive chairman of dot.LA. He is an entrepreneur and company leader who co-founded Zillow, Hotwire, dot.LA, Pacaso and Supernova, and who served as Zillow's CEO for a decade. During Spencer's time as CEO, Zillow won dozens of "best places to work" awards as it grew to over 4,500 employees, $3 billion in revenue, and $10 billion in market capitalization. Prior to Zillow, Spencer co-founded and was VP Corporate Development of Hotwire, which was sold to Expedia for $685 million in 2003. Through his startup studio and venture capital firm, 75 & Sunny, Spencer is an active angel investor in over 100 companies and is incubating several more.
For years, the VC funding environment in Los Angeles and beyond has defied the laws of gravity. When it came to tech expansion, the unofficial ethos seemed to be: what goes up must stay up. But recent forces have conspired to paint a much different picture than we’re used to seeing, and the effects are being felt at every stage of the startup ecosystem.
My prediction: while the future funding forecast looks bleak and will stay that way for a while, it’s not without its bright spots, especially for those who are in it for the long run.
The Fed Effect
Here’s where it started: In the public equity markets, the tide began to turn as the Fed started raising interest rates in order to tame inflation. This jumpstarted a risk-off mentality, which happens when there’s increased uncertainty, even pessimism, about the economic outlook. Higher discount rates due to higher interest rates lead to growth stocks trading down.
It’s been a dazzling display of volatility. Market-wide, we’ve seen high-growth tech stocks decline significantly in the past six months— many tech stocks are down 50%-plus in the last year. 2022 was rough.
On the extreme end, Carvana shares have dropped 97%. Shopify stock is down 80% in 2022 and even Amazon, which to-date has seemed relatively bulletproof, lost more than 40% of its value since January 1. These are good examples of not only the problem at hand, but also the opportunity.
Crossover investors—those who do both public and private market investing—suddenly see public market opportunities again. They can now buy high-quality liquid assets in public markets at historically low multiples.
That’s the exact opposite of a few years ago when public equities were valued very highly. Then, crossover investors simply couldn’t find great returns in public markets, and chose instead to fish upstream into the private market investing tide pool to find viable prospects. That helped fuel the expansive L.A. (and elsewhere) startup success we’ve known to-date.
Stock-Induced Gridlock
Now that crossover investors have returned more to the public markets (or have stayed on the sidelines), and more traditional growth investors see a more difficult path for their companies to IPO, the local venture landscape has changed. Late-stage funding opportunities and the IPO markets have essentially shut down. Most companies that raised money at high valuations can’t go back because they can’t command such a high price in the public markets.
A year or two ago, it was typical to see a $5 million seed round at a $25 million valuation. Today, that’s an incredibly difficult hurdle to jump. I see numbers closer to $2 to $3 million at $10 to $15 million valuations, and even that feels like a significant success.
This is where the gridlock begins. This scenario forces late-stage private companies into a pretty undesirable corner. They essentially have two options: A) raise a flat or down round or B) cut expenses and extend runway. While neither are ideal, most companies who can are choosing the lesser of two business evils: option B.
This means that the majority of growth-stage companies raising now are only doing so because they’ve run out of cash and will shut down without additional funding. This reinforces the prevalence of down rounds in the market.
And at the end of the line? IPOs, the final step, simply aren't happening right now. It’s gridlock from start to finish.
Ripples, Then Rebound
One of the biggest implications of these market shifts is that not only do companies have less capital, but also less access to future capital. These days, cutting costs is tantamount to survival, and though necessary, it’s having a ripple effect throughout the tech industry. Hiring has slowed. Marketing expenditure has decreased. Expenditures overall are down. On top of these startup trends, consider the major layoffs happening at Meta, Snapchat and other large- and small-scale players, and it’s hard to see anything but a grim outlook ahead.
But my perspective: the long view isn’t all bad. Because companies are taking this chance to focus on unit profitability and sustainable growth, they’re setting themselves up for future success.
The L.A. market is particularly poised to weather this storm, in large part because it’s a hub for sectors that are standing strong mid-downturn.
Clean tech, a catchall name for everything from green energy to sustainable building materials to electric cars, is booming, and L.A. is benefiting. One of the pioneers of the space, Rivian, is based just outside L.A. in Irvine, and companies like Universal Hydrogen, Loop and EVGo are all based in the area.
The defense tech and aerospace industries are also on the uptick, and L.A. is home to some of the most innovative startups in those verticals. Take for instance Apex Space, a Culver City-based startup dedicated to producing better spacecraft at scale, and Relativity Space, which is building the first autonomous rocket factory and launch services for satellites. One of the largest venture rounds of the year was just announced for Anduril, a tech-enabled defense contractor based in Costa Mesa. SpaceX, one of the most highly valued private companies, is based in Hawthorne and continues to thrive. (Disclosure: my venture fund, 75 & Sunny Ventures, is an investor in Apex, Relativity and SpaceX.)
Mega rounds for powerhouse companies like Anduril and SpaceX during this down market have meant that, in contrast to most of the country, late-stage funding in L.A. has actually increased relative to early-stage funding. Still, early-stage startups in L.A. continue to thrive. In terms of deal count, seed and early-stage investments make up 75% of L.A.’s venture rounds, driving the flywheel that has made L.A. tech so dynamic over the past few years.
If you hated the last few months, as I have, remember that this too shall pass. The Fed will slow and eventually halt rate rises, and I’d bet the halt will be followed by rate declines (in late 2023?). My prediction: by late 2023 or 2024, the funding market will improve and the weather will turn. Maybe we won’t get completely back to “75 and Sunny” for a while, but the gruesome second half of 2022, which will continue in 2023, will subside late next year. 2023 will be a lost year, a year in which startups should focus on surviving not thriving. Those that make it to the other side of this downturn, like those which survived the 2008 and 2000 downturns, will become long-term winners and be stronger for having weathered this storm.
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Spencer Rascoff
Spencer Rascoff serves as executive chairman of dot.LA. He is an entrepreneur and company leader who co-founded Zillow, Hotwire, dot.LA, Pacaso and Supernova, and who served as Zillow's CEO for a decade. During Spencer's time as CEO, Zillow won dozens of "best places to work" awards as it grew to over 4,500 employees, $3 billion in revenue, and $10 billion in market capitalization. Prior to Zillow, Spencer co-founded and was VP Corporate Development of Hotwire, which was sold to Expedia for $685 million in 2003. Through his startup studio and venture capital firm, 75 & Sunny, Spencer is an active angel investor in over 100 companies and is incubating several more.
https://twitter.com/spencerrascoff
https://www.linkedin.com/in/spencerrascoff/
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AirMap Will Help The FAA Design Its New Drone Tracking System
04:43 PM | May 06, 2020
Santa Monica-based drone operations company AirMap is among eight companies selected to help the Federal Aviation Administration establish technical requirements for Remote ID, a protocol that drones will be required to follow for broadcasting identification and location data while in flight.
The other companies include Airbus, Amazon, T-Mobile, Intel, OneSky, Skyward and Alphabet's drone subsidiary, Wing.
"The FAA will be able to advance the safe integration of drones into our nation's airspace from these technology companies' knowledge and expertise on remote identification," Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao said today in a news release.
Today's announcement comes months after the FAA put out a set of draft regulations and a request for information relating to Remote ID.
Remote ID would require drone manufacturers to make their products capable of sending out ID codes and location data during operation in national airspace. The rules would apply to all drones heavier than 8.8 ounces, and manufacturers would have to comply two years after the regulations take effect. Drone operators would have three years to phase out non-complying devices.
Drones without the Remote ID system could be flown only within special FAA-designated zones — usually the same sorts of places where hobbyists fly model airplanes.
Remote ID system proposed for drones in U.S. airspacewww.youtube.com
The eight companies named today will advise the FAA on the technical standards and radio frequencies that would support the Remote ID system. Those specifications will be announced when the FAA publishes its final rule on Remote ID. Then the FAA would begin accepting applications for entities to become Remote ID suppliers.
Assuming the process develops as the FAA envisions, Remote ID would become a fact of life for drone operation — and for enforcement of the rules governing drone operation. Nearly 1.5 million drones and 160,000 remote pilots are now registered with the FAA, and analysts say Remote ID could turn into a market generating $1.5 billion a year by 2029.
Seattle-based Amazon and Wing are already well-known for their work on drones designed for package delivery. Airbus has its own delivery-drone program known as Skyways. Intel, meanwhile, has been building drones optimized for remote monitoring. Several FAA-approved pilot projects are testing Intel's drones as well as Intel's Bluetooth-enabled identification system, known as Open Drone ID.
AirMap, OneSky (a business unit of Analytical Graphics Inc.) and Skyward (a Verizon subsidiary) are working on traffic management systems that are optimized to keep track of drone operations.
T-Mobile has been providing the connectivity for at least three pilot projects involving drones, and is looking to expand its involvement in the drone industry with the rise of 5G networks.
Not everyone is happy with the FAA's proposed plan for Remote ID: DJI, one of the world's largest drone manufacturers, sounded off about its objections in a January blog posting.
"DJI wants governments to require Remote ID for drones, but the FAA has proposed a complex, expensive and intrusive system that would make it harder to use drones in America, and that jeopardizes the success of the Remote ID initiative," said Brendan Schulman, DJI's vice president of policy and legal affairs. "Instead, we support a simpler, easier, and free version of Remote ID that doesn't need a cellular connection or a service subscription."
Will the FAA's new technology partners come up with a different plan, or stick with the system as proposed? Stay tuned.
This story first appeared on GeekWire.
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Alan Boyle, GeekWire
GeekWire contributing editor Alan Boyle is an award-winning science writer and veteran space reporter. Formerly of NBCNews.com, he is the author of "The Case for Pluto: How a Little Planet Made a Big Difference." Follow him via CosmicLog.com, on Twitter @b0yle, and on Facebook and MeWe.
Tinder, Starlink, and Apple’s New Studio: This Week in LA
10:27 AM | July 04, 2025
🔦 Spotlight
Happy Independence Day, Los Angeles! 🇺🇸
While you're celebrating freedom, here are some electrifying updates lighting up LA’s tech, satellite, and music scenes:
🔥 Tinder mandates Face Recognition in California
Image Source: Tinder
Tinder is now requiring all new users in California to complete a biometric face check, a brief video selfie processed via FaceTec, to verify profiles are genuine. The video is deleted post-verification, though an encrypted face map remains while the account is active. This West Hollywood based move could redefine trust, safety, and privacy in mainstream consumer apps.
🌐 Starlink clears hurdle to launch in India
Elon Musk’s SpaceX backed Starlink has cleared most regulatory and licensing hurdles with India’s Department of Telecommunications, marking a key step toward launching satellite broadband in one of the world’s fastest growing markets. Final approvals from the national space regulator are pending, and services, expected to deliver high speed connectivity to underserved regions, could launch in the coming months. This is a major milestone for Starlink’s global expansion.
🎧 Apple Music opens Culver City creative hub
Image Source: Apple
Apple Music is celebrating its anniversary by launching a brand new 15,000 square foot, three story studio in Culver City. The facility, featuring a 4,000 square foot soundstage, spatial audio suites, podcast booths, and more, is designed by Eric Owen Moss and slated to open mid August. It solidifies LA’s reputation as a creative powerhouse and reaffirms Apple’s commitment to investing in and nurturing our city's cultural ecosystem.
From dating apps to deep space to sound stages, LA isn’t just watching the future unfold, we’re building it.
Here’s to independence, imagination, and everything this city dares to launch next. Happy Fourth, Los Angeles.
🤝 Venture Deals
LA Companies
- Castelion has raised a $350M Series B round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners alongside Altimeter Capital to scale its hypersonic missile production capabilities. The El Segundo-based defense startup plans to use the funds to expand manufacturing, accelerate testing through its SpaceX-inspired rapid development model, and position itself as a cost-effective supplier of hypersonic weapons to the U.S. military and its allies. - learn more
- Earth Sama, a Calabasas, California–based climate-tech platform that helps rural farming and Indigenous communities generate and manage carbon credits, secured investment from Omtse Ventures. The funding will support the rollout of Earth Sama’s blockchain-powered field app, climate-creator platform, and smart-contract tools to scale community-led carbon credit projects globally under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6.4 framework. - learn more
LA Venture Funds
- Plassa Capital participated in Metafide’s $3.275M funding round. Miami based Metafide, the creator of SURGE, a gamified trading platform that combines AI neural networks and human insight, will use the funds to scale and launch SURGE into the market. - learn more
- BOLD Capital Partners participated as a founding investor in Syntis Bio’s $33M Series A round, with an additional $5M in NIH grants. The Boston-based biotech is developing oral therapies for obesity and rare diseases, and the funding will help advance its SYNT platform, moving its lead obesity treatment, SYNT-101, into Phase 1 trials and supporting development of SYNT-202 for homocystinuria. - learn more
- BAM Ventures participated in Cred’s $15M seed round for its predictive intelligence startup. San Francisco based Cred uses AI to unify company data with real time market signals and deliver actionable insights for sales and operations. The funding, led by defy.vc, will be used to scale Cred’s platform, expand its customer base, and grow team and product capabilities. - learn more
- BOLD Capital Partners participated in Gallant’s $18M Series B round to advance its ready-to-use stem cell therapies for pets. The funding, led by Digitalis Ventures with additional support from NovaQuest Capital, will help Gallant bring its off-the-shelf regenerative treatments to market. - learn more
- Rebel Fund joined the seed round for Rocketable, contributing to the $6.5M raised to build a portfolio of fully automated SaaS companies. San Francisco-based Rocketable, backed by True Ventures and others, uses AI agents to operate acquired software products, and Rebel’s support will help scale both the platform and acquisitions. - learn more
LA Exits
- Leasepath, a cloud-first provider of equipment lease and loan management software, has been acquired by Solifi to enhance its mid-market offerings. The deal allows Solifi to expand Leasepath’s Microsoft Dynamics-based platform into new global markets while keeping Leasepath’s team and leadership in place. - learn more
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