Streaming Trends to Watch in 2021: Consolidation, Ads vs. Subs and Mobile Content Wars

Sam Blake

Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake

Streaming Trends to Watch in 2021: Consolidation, Ads vs. Subs and Mobile Content Wars

Everyone expected the streaming wars to heat up, but no one could have predicted that a global pandemic would upend the theatrical release window and reshuffle the entertainment landscape so dramatically moving into 2021.

While Netflix has retained its dominance, Disney Plus is catching up. WarnerMedia-owned HBO, once the king of cable, has struggled to lure subscribers to HBO Max, but made headlines by throwing the long-entrenched precedent of films debuting on the big screen out the window.

NBCUniversal joined the fray with Peacock while the much-anticipated Quibi quickly burnt out. It remains to be seen whether the vast array of niche services can survive. Meanwhile, cash-rich Amazon and Apple loom with fat balance sheets, setting them up to make big moves if they wish.

With 2020 receding into the rearview, here are three trends to watch in 2021.


Will Streaming Platforms Consolidate Through Mergers and Acquisitions?

The proliferation of direct-to-consumer streaming platforms has precipitated a content arms race. Streamers need to keep filling their pipes if they want to compete and they are looking to old favorites like "The Office," zeitgeist-capturing breakout hits like "The Queen's Gambit" and reliable franchises like "Star Wars" and "Marvel" that can spin off seemingly endless films and shows.

Meanwhile, the pandemic has brought the future of theatrical releases and even theater chains into question after Warner Bros. allocated their entire slate of 2021 films to a streaming release the same day the flicks debut on the big screen. If box office dollars shrivel and sales of the films released directly to streaming are strong, streamers will continue to look to this model as a viable option even after the pandemic subsides. This could add challenges for companies with strong libraries and production chops but lacking a premier streaming platform.

"How do you greenlight a $100 million movie if you don't know what it's going to look like when the lights turn on?" said Adam Goodman, former president of Paramount Pictures.

Related: The Economics of How and Where Movies Are Released

Those companies may be better off paired with one of streaming's established players. The Wall Street Journal recently reported MGM, which owns James Bond among other assets, is looking to sell. Who might be buying?

Apple and Amazon could pay cash for virtually any studio in town and still have money left over. Their interests in streaming are tied to selling other products and services, though, so their acquisition appetites will depend on how badly they think they need to make a move in order to retain and grow their respective competitive advantages. 2021 may reveal the size and scope of their ambitions.

Another area to watch is how the ongoing decline of cable TV may nudge WarnerMedia and NBCUniversal toward spinoffs from their corporate parents, AT&T and Comcast respectively. Some activist investors have been calling for this, in order to free up the cable companies to focus on their super high-margin internet service businesses. One intriguing possibility is a two-step shakeup, in which WarnerMedia spins off from AT&T and NBCUniversal spins off from Comcast, and then their two streaming platforms (HBO Max and Peacock) merge to take on the behemoths of Netflix and Disney Plus.

Then there are the niche services. Sony recently acquired Crunchyroll for $1.2 billion. Might we see more roll-ups into broader-serving platforms?

Can an Advertising-Based Service Compete with a Subscription-Based Model in Streaming's Upper Echelon?

With the exception of Hulu, which has lost some of its luster as Disney has assumed full control and prioritized Disney Plus, the big players in streaming have primarily been subscription-based.

NBCU's Peacock, however, went against the grain by offering both a free, ad-based tier and a premium subscription. Providing free service can help to attract younger audiences strapped for cash, but it remains unclear whether the model can generate enough revenue for Peacock to afford enough content to compete with Netflix and Disney.

To track how NBCUniversal is thinking this through in 2021, keep an eye on the extent to which Peacock invests in content and marketing for its free tier. A significant push in those areas could indicate that its ad business is doing well. Specifically, it'll suggest that Peacock can target ads with relatively high precision, and charge advertisers a premium.

Might Someone Pick Up Where Quibi Left Off, with a Twist?

Although Quibi flamed out spectacularly, it's possible that Jeffrey Katzenberg was onto something: there's arguably an underserved gap between premium content on streaming platforms and user-generated content (UGC) on mobile apps like TikTok, Snapchat and Instagram. Quibi tried to bridge that gap by combining mobile with premium, shelling out for big-name stars and charging users a subscription fee. The pandemic may have exacerbated Quibi's demise, but so did the bevy of alternative short-form video platforms that are free and just a thumb-tap away.

The question, then, is whether the gap that Quibi identified can be filled in another way. As to what that might look like, media analyst Laura Martin told dot.LA that the lesson of Quibi's downfall is that UGC models appear to be "more resilient" when it comes to mobile content.

Rather than turning mobile video into studio-quality content, 2021 could see a premium take on free-to-access UGC content. For example, influencers with big followings may start creating more series with narrative arcs and content with higher production values. It's a model that's been tried to an extent before, unsuccessfully, with Disney's failed acquisition of Maker Studios and the lackluster results of YouTube Red. But with the pandemic increasing consumption of social media and time spent on mobile devices, the environment has changed. Plus, as the influencer economy and ecommerce evolves, new business models and funding sources are emerging, which could open up a new realm of creativity in 2021.


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Sam Blake primarily covers media and entertainment for dot.LA. Find him on Twitter @hisamblake and email him at samblake@dot.LA

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This Torrance Startup Just Raised $1B to Mass-Produce Hypersonic Missiles

🔦 Spotlight

Happy Friday, Los Angeles.

Castelion has spent the past four years trying to prove that hypersonic missiles do not need to take decades to develop or cost so much that the military can only afford a limited supply.

Now comes the harder part: producing them at scale.

The Torrance-based defense startup raised a $1B Series C at a $13B valuation. The financing includes $800M in equity and a $250M revolving credit facility, making it one of the largest recent raises for an LA defense technology company.

JPMorganChase’s Strategic Investment Group, Andreessen Horowitz and Carlyle co-led the round. Lightspeed Venture Partners, Lavrock Ventures, Altimeter, General Catalyst, T. Rowe Price and LA-based Interlagos Capital also participated.

Castelion will use the capital to ramp production of Blackbeard, its low-cost hypersonic strike missile, while developing a longer-range precision weapon and new defensive systems. Hundreds of millions of dollars will go toward expanding manufacturing at Project Ranger, the company’s 1,000-acre production campus in New Mexico.

Image Source: Castelion

Blackbeard was designed in California, will be built in New Mexico and is expected to enter service in 2027. Castelion says it has already secured more than $500M in U.S. military contracts over the past 18 months and moved the missile from a clean-sheet concept to an official program in fewer than four years.

That timeline is central to Castelion’s pitch. Traditional defense programs are often associated with long development cycles, limited production runs and eye-watering costs. Castelion is applying the rapid testing and vertically integrated manufacturing approach popularized by commercial space companies to weapons production.

But a $13B valuation changes the standard. Castelion is no longer being judged as a promising startup with an impressive prototype. It is being funded like a company expected to become a major part of the American defense industrial base.

The question is no longer whether a startup can build a hypersonic missile. It is whether one can manufacture thousands of them without losing the speed, discipline and cost advantages that made it disruptive in the first place.

For LA’s defense ecosystem, that shift matters. The region has become home to a growing number of companies promising to modernize how America builds critical hardware. Castelion now has the capital, contracts and facilities to show what happens when that promise reaches the factory floor.

The next test will not be in a pitch deck. It will be in production.

More from this week’s LA startup and venture scene below.

🤝 Venture Deals

    LA Companies

    • Long Beach based Ampaire raised a $19M Series B led by DiamondStream Partners, with strategic participation from Alaska Star Ventures and IAGi Ventures, bringing its total funding to $68M. The hybrid-electric aviation company will use the capital to expand flight operations, produce additional Eco Caravan aircraft, advance regulatory certification and scale its manufacturing capabilities. - learn more

    LA Venture Funds
    • SUM Ventures participated in AssistMe’s €6.5M funding round, which was led by CRB Health Tech and Vorwerk Ventures and included several returning investors. The German care technology company will use the capital to expand across Europe, prepare for a U.S. launch and further develop alea, its digital platform for supporting caregivers and improving nursing-home operations. - learn more
    • CIV led Hypercubic’s $5.3M seed round, with participation from Y Combinator, Afore Capital, Pioneer Fund, Multimodal Ventures and several angel investors. The San Francisco startup will use the capital to develop AI agents that can analyze, document and rewrite decades-old COBOL systems, helping enterprises modernize critical mainframe software faster and with less risk. - learn more
    • Plus Capital participated in Wispr Flow’s $280M Series B, led by Menlo Ventures and joined by existing and new investors, valuing the AI voice company at $2B. The funding brings Wispr’s total capital raised to $361M and will support its expansion beyond dictation into meeting tools and proprietary speech technology, including its new Canto model. - learn more
    • Alexandria Venture Investments participated in Leal Therapeutics’ $30M Series A extension alongside new investor Eli Lilly and returning backers including OrbiMed, Newpath Partners and SV Health Investors’ Dementia Discovery Fund. The biotech company will use the funding to advance clinical trials of LTX-001 for schizophrenia and LTX-002 for ALS, with initial schizophrenia trial data expected by year-end. - learn more
    • BroadLight Capital participated in Higgsfield’s $400M Series B, led by DST Global and joined by investors including Goldman Sachs Alternatives, Smash Capital, Fifth Wall and Intel Capital. The AI video and image platform, now valued at $5.4B with $700M in annualized revenue, will use the funding for R&D, global infrastructure, AI hiring and international expansion. - learn more

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      Why Samsonite Just Paid $178.5M for BÉIS

      🔦 Spotlight

      Hello, Hello.

      This week, one of LA’s most recognizable consumer brands packed its biggest bag yet.

      Samsonite Group has agreed to acquire an 85% stake in BÉIS for $178.5M, valuing the Los Angeles-based travel and lifestyle brand at approximately $210M. The deal is expected to close in Q4, pending regulatory approval.

      Founded by actress and entrepreneur Shay Mitchell and incubated by LA-based Beach House Group in 2018, BÉIS has grown from a digitally native luggage startup into a profitable business that generated approximately $210M in sales last year. Along the way, it built the kind of fiercely loyal online following that legacy brands spend years and considerable marketing budgets trying to manufacture.

      Image Source: BÉIS

      That may be the most interesting part of this deal. Samsonite is not simply acquiring another luggage line. It is buying access to a younger, predominantly female customer base, a sophisticated direct-to-consumer operation and a brand that knows how to turn social media attention into actual sales. The suitcases are useful; the cultural relevance is the real carry-on.

      BÉIS will continue operating as a standalone brand under CEO Adeela Hussain Johnson and its existing management team. Mitchell will retain a 15% ownership stake and continue guiding the company’s creative and product vision, while Samsonite brings the global distribution, sourcing and logistics infrastructure needed to take the brand further.

      For LA’s startup community, the acquisition is another reminder that valuable technology companies do not always look like software companies. BÉIS built its advantage through digital distribution, community and an unusually sharp understanding of its customer. Now, one of the world’s largest luggage companies wants what it created.

      Sometimes the strongest exit starts with knowing exactly what people want to pack.

      More from this week’s LA startup and venture scene below.

      🤝 Venture Deals

        LA Companies

        • Heaviside Industries raised a $60M Series B to accelerate the development and production of its autonomous precision munitions for U.S. and allied forces. The company also announced a strategic partnership with defense manufacturer Nammo, combining Heaviside’s autonomous weapons technology with Nammo’s expertise in propulsion, warheads and large-scale munitions production. - learn more
        • Alex Cooper and Matt Kaplan’s media company Unwell received its first outside investment from WTSL, giving the profitable business a $500M pre-money valuation. Unwell, which reaches a reported 70M women each month through podcasts, film and television, live events, consumer products and a creative agency, will use the capital to pursue acquisitions, make investments and expand into new business lines. - learn more
        • Neros raised a $250M Series C at a $2.5B valuation, with participation from LA-based Interlagos, MANTIS Venture Capital and Thiel Capital. The El Segundo defense startup will use the funding to scale its autonomous strike and interceptor drone programs, expand production and strengthen its domestic supply chain as demand grows from the U.S. military and allied forces. - learn more
        • FriskAI raised $3.6M from MaC Venture Capital to expand its observability and security platform for AI agents. The startup helps companies monitor what autonomous agents do in real time, giving teams greater visibility into agent behavior and helping them identify errors, risks and unexpected actions. - learn more
        • Diald raised $1M in follow-on funding led by Feedback Ventures, bringing its total funding to $4.75M. The company also launched a rebuilt conversational AI platform that lets commercial real estate investors create pro formas and evaluate zoning, permits, neighborhood sentiment and other property risks through plain-language prompts. - learn more

        LA Venture Funds
        • Alexandria Venture Investments participated in Khartis Therapeutics’ $50M Series B, led by Forge Life Science Partners, bringing the San Diego biotech’s total funding to $95M. Khartis will use the capital to advance its lead oral treatment for thyroid eye disease and expand its pipeline of small-molecule immunology drugs. - learn more
        • Finality Capital Partners co-led Entravel Group’s $7.5M funding round alongside Ethereal Ventures, with participation from GSR, Varrock, G1 Ventures, Seier Capital, Veris Ventures, Funfair Ventures and WTG Ventures. The traveltech company will use the capital to expand its white-label hotel-booking infrastructure beyond crypto platforms and develop a stablecoin-powered system for settlement, treasury and working-capital financing. - learn more
        • Regeneration.VC participated in Clarity Systems’ $4.4M seed round, led by LMnT Ventures and joined by Humba Ventures and Massive Technology Ventures. Clarity uses X-ray imaging, computer vision and AI to detect counterfeits, product swaps and other forms of returns fraud in seconds without opening the package. - learn more
        • CIV participated in AGent Energy’s $11M Series Seed round alongside existing investor Zero Infinity Partners, with Spero Ventures and MassMutual Ventures co-leading and Intrepid Investment Management also joining. The Houston startup uses AI-powered hardware and software to turn largely idle backup generators into on-demand grid capacity during emergencies, and the new funding brings its total raised to $17M. - learn more
        • Smash Capital co-led CodeRabbit’s $143M Series C alongside Atomico, valuing the AI code-review company at $1.5B. CodeRabbit will use the funding to expand internationally and develop its new Agentic Change Management platform, which helps companies review, govern and monitor software created by both humans and AI agents. - learn more
        • Multiball Capital backed Soctera’s $4M seed round alongside Anorak Ventures, with additional participation from 9Yards Capital, Mana Ventures and Red Bear Ventures. The Cornell spinout will use the funding to develop heat-efficient power amplifiers designed to improve the range, signal quality and reliability of radar, electronic warfare, satellite and telecommunications systems. - learn more
        • WndrCo participated in Genera’s $10M seed round, which was led by First Round Capital and also included BoxGroup, Carpenter Capital and Success Venture Partners. Genera will use the funding to scale its AI platform, which automates the often labor-intensive process of deploying enterprise software, including customer discovery, data migration and system configuration. - learn more
        • M13 co-led Baselayer’s $20M Series A alongside Koro Capital, bringing the fintech startup’s total funding to approximately $47M. Baselayer will use the capital to enhance its AI-powered platform, which helps banks, fintech companies and government agencies automate business verification, risk assessment and fraud monitoring. - learn more

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          Two LA Startups Raised $2.37B to Build What AI Needs

          🔦 Spotlight

          Happy Friday, LA.

          The largest checks in tech are increasingly going toward companies trying to build their way out of America’s biggest physical constraints.

          This week, two Los Angeles startups raised a combined $2.37 billion in equity to tackle two particularly urgent ones: how the country manufactures critical hardware and where it will find enough electricity to power the AI era.

          Torrance-based Hadrian is building highly automated factories for defense and aerospace. El Segundo’s Valar Atomics wants to manufacture nuclear reactors at scale. Different industries, same underlying bet: the next generation of technology will depend on our ability to produce physical infrastructure much faster than we do today.

          Hadrian raised $1.37 billion in Series D funding, bringing its valuation to $7.87 billion. The company plans to use the capital to open new factories, expand research and development, and increase its capacity to produce critical defense, aerospace and industrial systems.

          Hadrian’s pitch is straightforward, if wildly ambitious: America needs to relearn how to build things and build them quickly.

          Its factories combine skilled workers with AI, robotics and proprietary software to manufacture precision components and, increasingly, complete mission-critical systems. Its customers include defense giants such as Lockheed Martin and RTX, along with newer players like Anduril.

          The company has come a long way from simply making aerospace parts. Hadrian is positioning itself as a piece of America’s industrial infrastructure, offering manufacturers a way to rapidly scale domestic production at a time when wars abroad, strained supply chains and growing defense demands have made the country’s manufacturing gaps increasingly difficult to ignore.

          Investors are clearly buying the argument. The new round comes just over a year after Hadrian raised $260 million, suggesting that “reindustrialization” has officially graduated from venture capital buzzword to billion-dollar investment thesis.

          Meanwhile, roughly 15 miles away in El Segundo, Valar Atomics is moving even faster than its enormous ambitions suggested.

          When we last wrote about Valar, the company was reportedly raising $450 million at a $2 billion valuation and racing to prove that nuclear energy could move on AI’s timetable. Now, it has closed a $1 billion Series B led by Sequoia Capital, secured an additional $200 million credit facility and reportedly reached a $6 billion valuation.

          Valar is developing standardized, factory-built nuclear power plants designed to avoid the enormous costs and decades-long construction timelines associated with traditional nuclear projects. Its goal is not merely to build a working reactor, but to eventually manufacture fleets of them.

          That ambition also sounds considerably less theoretical than it did when we first covered the company. In June, Valar’s Ward 250 reactor achieved a self-sustaining nuclear reaction. Just one week later, the company demonstrated the reactor generating electricity to power an Nvidia Blackwell system. Valar now says the new funding will help it move from proving its technology works to producing reactors at scale.

          The timing is no coincidence. AI’s enormous appetite for electricity is forcing the tech industry to confront a basic reality: the cloud still has to plug into something. Training models and operating massive data centers will require far more reliable power, and nuclear energy is rapidly becoming one of Silicon Valley’s favorite answers.

          Hadrian and Valar may be solving different problems, but their unusually large rounds point to the same shift. AI can design, predict and automate, but it cannot manufacture a missile component or generate a megawatt of electricity on its own. That requires factories, energy systems, supply chains and a great deal of capital.

          For years, venture-backed companies competed to build the software layer. Now, some of the biggest bets are being placed on the infrastructure underneath it.

          The future may run on AI. But first, someone has to build what keeps it running.

          More from this week’s LA startup and venture scene below.

          🤝 Venture Deals

            LA Companies

            • Endeavor Optical Networks emerged from stealth with $10.75M in seed funding from General Catalyst and Andreessen Horowitz to develop a satellite network that uses lasers to move data between continents. The startup plans to use the capital to build an optics lab, hire engineers and conduct ground testing ahead of a demonstration satellite launch targeted for late 2027. - learn more
            • Actualyze AI emerged from stealth with a $7M seed round backed by Storm Ventures, Canaan Partners, Morado Ventures and AME Cloud Ventures. Its platform gives enterprises a central control layer for managing AI usage across teams and applications, helping them enforce security policies, track spending, route requests between models and maintain audit trails. - learn more
            • Blaze.tech raised $8.5M in pre-seed funding led by Friale, a healthcare-focused venture firm founded by the family behind HCA Healthcare. The company helps digital health startups, providers and payers turn AI-generated prototypes into HIPAA-compliant software for uses including e-prescribing, EHR integrations, telehealth and auditing. - learn more

            LA Venture Funds
            • Canon Capital participated in Oligo Security’s $60M funding round alongside Ballistic Ventures, Greenfield Partners, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Red Dot Capital Partners, TLV Partners and other investors, bringing the cybersecurity company’s total funding to $140M. Oligo will use the capital to accelerate product development and expand its global go-to-market operations as it helps organizations detect and block software exploits in real time. - learn more
            • Matter Venture Partners participated in Volta’s seed and Series A financing alongside Azora, Andreessen Horowitz, Altimeter, NVIDIA and Michael Dell’s family office, valuing the AI infrastructure startup at $2.4B. Emerging from stealth, Volta plans to use the backing to develop and operate large-scale AI data centers, supported by a $5B infrastructure financing program with Azora and a $10B European compute partnership. - learn more
            • Cedars-Sinai participated in Cirrus Therapeutics’ expanded seed financing through its Intellectual Property Company, bringing the ocular immunology biotech’s total funding to $14.7M. Cirrus will use the backing to advance its gene and cell therapy pipeline, including a lead treatment for geographic atrophy, while a new collaboration with Singapore Eye Research Institute and Duke-NUS will support research, clinical development and expansion across Asia-Pacific. - learn more
            • Strong Ventures made a follow-on investment in Ready Robust Machine’s ₩13.4B Series B, which was led by Quantum Ventures Korea and brought the heavy-equipment technology company’s total funding to ₩22.9B. The company develops energy-recovery systems for hydraulic machinery and will use the capital to build out mass production, expand its data services and enter the Japanese market. - learn more

            LA Exits

            • Artium has been acquired by global consulting firm AlixPartners, bringing its expertise in building enterprise-grade AI agents for clients including BNY Mellon, Mayo Clinic and eBay to a broader global platform. The company will continue operating as a distinct team under the name Artium by AlixPartners, retaining its founders, employees, methodology and research relationships. - learn more

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