What ZipRecruiter Sees for the Economy's Eventual Rebound

Sam Blake

Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake

What ZipRecruiter Sees for the Economy's Eventual Rebound

As regions nationwide steel themselves for the oncoming peaks of COVID-19 cases, the U.S. economy continues to stumble. But some emerging patterns suggest certain changes once it stabilizes.

For now, JPMorgan economists forecasted this week a 40% annualized decline in U.S. GDP for the second quarter, and a 20% surge in April's unemployment rate, with 25 million jobs lost. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits in the past three weeks totals 16.8 million.


What could be in store once the economy rebounds?

As a tech-savvy online jobs marketplace, ZipRecruiter has a unique vantage point to monitor and forecast the labor market. Labor economist Julia Pollak spoke with dot.LA about what the latest batch of data signals for the other side of the crisis.

Show Me the Data

"This recession is like no other we've experienced," said Pollak. "People are calling this the Great Cessation."

Some people "will find that during the recovery the economy will have changed beneath their feet."

There is no sugarcoating the gloom. According to figures ZipRecruiter provided to dot.LA, average daily job postings across the internet have been declining for six straight weeks; worse, the rate of decline has been accelerating. In all but four of the 27 industries that ZipRecruiter tracks, job postings have plunged between the weeks ending March 8th through April 5th.

Travel (-51%) and tourism (-31%) have been hit hardest. So have states dependent on these industries, like Hawaii (-25%) and Nevada (-24%). These states and sectors are highly sensitive to nationwide trends, noted Pollak, meaning once things start to rebound, they should see relatively quick recoveries.

Conversely, some job postings are growing fast. These include jobs* in:

  • Transportation: Commercial Flatbed Truck Driver postings are +2,614% over the past four weeks; Truck Driver Trainer +634%
  • Storage: Warehouse Laborer +83%, Warehouse Sorter +62%
  • Finance and Insurance: Claims Adjuster +212%, Financial Sales +93%
  • E-commerce: Distribution Associate +232%, Grocery Shopper +17%
  • Healthcare and Social Assistance: Intensive Care Nurse +188%, Nursing Assistant +184%
*Each with more than 1,000 daily active jobs on average each week.

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The best predictor of future behavior...

As for what these foretell regarding the future economic contours, Pollak suggests also looking at past trends.

"All kinds of slow, gradual transformations that we were seeing in the economy before are now going to happen very quickly," she forecasted.

This includes the decline of certain industries, like manufacturing and retail. "Stores will go into bankruptcy much sooner than they might have," noted Pollak.

Other industries are likely to continue their ascent. "The healthcare sector has added 278,000 jobs each year on average over the past 10 years," said Pollak. Expect more growth, especially given pent-up demand for elective procedures (assuming age demographic trends mostly hold).

Meanwhile, workers and consumers are acclimating to formerly peripheral activities now becoming mainstream.

"Some of the growth that's occurring now in e-commerce, distance learning and telemedicine will be permanent," Pollak predicted.

Throughout the economy, "people are learning new technologies (and) interacting with new goods and services that they hadn't used before. And some are enjoying the experience."

Fitter, Happier, More Productive

Firms, too, are adapting to new ways of doing business, which could mean increased productivity in the long run. "Companies have been forced to invest in all kinds of technology that may have been available and would have resulted in huge cost savings, and didn't (invest) because of inertia, but now that they've become familiar (with these technologies) they'll use them to great benefit," noted Pollak.

Reducing headcount, though often painful (and sometimes unceremonious), may also ultimately make companies healthier.

"People get confused when the stock market goes up despite people losing their jobs," tweeted former Presidential candidate Andrew Yang on Thursday. "The truth is that many companies will be more profitable and efficient with fewer employees."

As working from home becomes commonplace, companies will be able to reduce land costs; and those unit costs will likely be cheaper. Some studies suggest a distributed workforce may increase productivity.

Workers on the low-end of the earnings distribution may become more productive, too.

Pollak has found that the federal aid package, combined with unemployment benefits, has left nearly half of all American workers at least as well paid as they were before the pandemic--albeit temporarily. "This offers an opportunity for many low-wage workers to overcome barriers they had to higher-wage employment in better jobs before," she said. There is no guarantee such workers will seize that opportunity, but many now have the time and financial support to train for skills, certificates and licenses that were previously out of reach.

The big question is the extent to which the damage done to the labor market overmatches the positive trends--and how long it will take to close that gap. The longer the health crisis lasts, the worse the problem will become so long as net jobs continue to decline.

In the meantime, actions like those taken by the Fed and Congress will buy the economy time, in hopes of hastening what ZipRecruiter Chief Executive Officer Ian Siegel called the "great American comeback story to come."

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Big Wins: Dodgers Take the Title ⚾, ChatGPT Levels Up🚀

🔦 Spotlight

Happy Friday, LA! It’s been a week of big wins, on and off the field. 🎉

⚾️ First up, let’s talk Dodgers. With a thrilling 7-6 comeback victory over the Yankees in Game 5, the Dodgers clinched their eighth World Series title, their first since 2020. The city is buzzing, and fans are ready to celebrate! A parade kicks off this morning at 11 a.m., starting at City Hall and winding down to Flower Street, with a ticketed celebration at Dodger Stadium for those wanting to keep the festivities going.

Image Source: Dodgers

💻 Meanwhile, in the tech, OpenAI just rolled out a game-changing update for ChatGPT. Plus and Enterprise users can now access real-time internet search, powered by Microsoft Bing, bringing ChatGPT's responses fully up-to-date. This means users can now ask about the latest news, hotspots, or recent LA startup announcements, and ChatGPT will pull in fresh, relevant answers directly from the web. Previously limited to information up to 2021, ChatGPT’s new browsing capabilities make it a valuable digital assistant for anyone needing real-time insights in fast-paced industries like tech and entertainment.

Image Source: ChatGPT

🔍 The real-time search feature also includes “Browse with Bing,” allowing ChatGPT to source information from multiple sites for detailed answers to complex questions. Whether you’re exploring the latest venture capital trends in LA or curious about the best local spots, ChatGPT’s new browsing power helps you stay ahead with the latest info. This leap forward in AI functionality makes ChatGPT even more versatile and powerful for everyone, from business owners to everyday users.

From the Dodgers’ World Series win to OpenAI’s latest ChatGPT update, there’s a lot to celebrate in LA this week. Here’s to champions, innovation, and a city that’s always pushing boundaries. 🌆✨


🤝 Venture Deals

LA Companies

  • Final Boss Sour, a Los Angeles-based gaming-themed snack company specializing in healthier sour snacks, has raised a $3M Seed funding round led by Science Inc. to expand its product offerings and operational capabilities. - learn more
LA Venture Funds
  • Smash Capital led a $50M Series B round for Read AI, a productivity-focused AI company, bringing its total funding to $81M. The company offers a platform that enhances meeting efficiency through features like note-taking, summarization, and transcription. Additionally, Read AI introduced "Read AI for Gmail," a free Chrome extension that integrates information from various applications, reducing the need to switch between apps. The funds will be used to increase the company's headcount in engineering, data science, and business teams. - learn more
  • Distributed Global participated in a $25M funding round for Nillion, a company that provides decentralized privacy solutions designed to secure sensitive data using advanced technologies like secure multi-party computation. - learn more
  • Act One Ventures participated in a $5M Seed funding round for Latii, a construction materials supply chain startup, to enhance its platform that connects contractors with suppliers, aiming to streamline procurement processes and reduce costs in the construction industry. - learn more
  • SmartGateVC participated in a pre-seed funding round for Ritual Dental, a company revolutionizing dental care by integrating advanced technology and microbiome science to provide personalized, preventive treatments. - learn more

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      Billion-Dollar Milestones and Snapchat’s New Features

      🔦 Spotlight

      Happy Friday Los Angeles!

      This week’s spotlight showcases LA’s thriving tech scene, featuring Snapchat’s latest feature updates and two local startups Liquid Death and Altruist, making TechCrunch’s Unicorn List for 2024.

      Image Source: Snap

      Snapchat’s recent fall updates bring fresh features, including a new iPhone camera shortcut for instant snaps, Halloween-inspired AI-powered Lenses, and Bitmoji costumes inspired by Mean Girls and Yellowstone. Bitmoji stickers now reflect trending Gen-Z expressions like “slay” and heart symbols for added flair in chats. Plus, the “Footsteps” feature on Snap Map allows users to track their past adventures privately, adding a nostalgic touch.

      Image Source: Liquid Death

      ICYMI, two LA startups joined the Unicorn Club—achieving valuations over $1 billion. Liquid Death, based in Santa Monica, is a canned water company with edgy branding and a humorous sustainability focus. Known for viral marketing and brand partnerships, it redefines bottled water as a lifestyle brand and environmental statement. In March, Liquid Death closed $67 million in strategic financing, raising its total funding to over $267 million and valuing it at $1.4 billion.

      Image Source: Altruist

      Altruist, a Culver City-based fintech platform, offers financial advisors streamlined tools to better serve their clients. With a user-friendly investment and account management platform, Altruist has gained strong traction in the finance world. In May, it announced a $169 million Series E funding round, bringing its total funding to over $449 million and earning a valuation of $1.5 billion.

      Together, Liquid Death and Altruist exemplify LA’s capacity for innovation across diverse sectors, from lifestyle branding to fintech. Whether reshaping financial tools or redefining sustainable branding, these companies showcase LA’s unique entrepreneurial spirit. Go LA!

      Check out TechCrunch’s 2024 Unicorn List here. And don’t miss Snapchat’s latest features—perfect for adding some fun, connection and maybe a few selfies this weekend!


      🤝 Venture Deals

      LA Companies

      • Freeform, a company bringing AI to metal 3D printing, raised $14M in funding from NVIDIA’s NVentures and AE Ventures to further develop its AI-powered 3D printing technology for industrial-scale production. - learn more
      LA Venture Funds
      • Anthos Capital participated in a $70M Series D round for Carbon Robotics, which develops AI-powered robotics for precision agriculture, and the funding will be used to accelerate the growth of its autonomous weeding technology. - learn more
      • Anthos Capital participated in a $3.5M seed round for Plasma Network, aimed at expanding access to USDT stablecoins on the Bitcoin network, with the investment supporting the network’s growth and efforts to enhance stablecoin accessibility through the Lightning Network. - learn more

      LA Exits


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          ⚖️FTC’s "Click to Cancel" Rule and Its Ripple Effect on Tech

          🔦 Spotlight

          Happy Friday Los Angeles,

          The FTC’s new “Click to Cancel” rule is shaking up subscription-based tech. Now, instead of navigating a maze of cancellation hurdles, users can cancel subscriptions as easily as they signed up—with a single click. This shift is a wake-up call for SaaS, streaming, and app-based companies, where once-hidden exit options often kept users around simply because canceling was a hassle.

          The rule also requires businesses to send regular renewal reminders, ensuring customers stay informed about upcoming charges. It's more than a cancellation button—it’s about transparency and giving users control over their decisions.

          For startups, the impact goes deeper than UX adjustments. Many have relied on "dark patterns," which subtly discourage cancellations by hiding the exit. Now, companies must shift toward building genuine loyalty by delivering real value, not by complicating exits.

          While this might affect retention rates initially, it could lead to more sustainable business models that rely on satisfaction-driven loyalty. Investors may start prioritizing companies that emphasize transparent, long-term engagement over those that depend on dark patterns to maintain retention metrics.

          The rule opens the door to more ethical UX design and a truly user-centered approach across the tech industry. It may even set a precedent against manipulative design in other areas, such as privacy settings or payment methods.

          Ultimately, the “Click to Cancel” rule presents an opportunity for the tech industry to foster trust and build stronger customer relationships. Startups and established companies that embrace transparency will likely stand out as leaders in a new era of customer-centric tech, where trust—not tricky design—is what retains users.

          As the tech landscape continues to evolve, LA Tech Week 2024 offers a chance to explore these shifts in real-time. Check out the upcoming event lineups to stay informed and make the most of your time:

          For updates or more event information, visit the official Tech Week calendar.


          🤝 Venture Deals

          LA Companies

          • Ghost, a company supporting top brands and retailers with streamlined logistics and fulfillment solutions, raised a $40M Series C funding round led by L Catterton to fuel its continued growth and innovation. - learn more

          LA Venture Funds
          • Assembly Ventures participated in a $27M Series A round for Monogoto, a provider of software-defined connectivity solutions that enable secure, cloud-based IoT and cellular network management on a global scale. - learn more
          • Angeleno Group participated in a $32M Series C round for REsurety, a company that recently launched an innovative clean energy marketplace aimed at providing better financial and operational insights to support renewable energy transactions. - learn more

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