As Labor Market Sputters, Patterns Form for Eventual Economic Rebound

Sam Blake

Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake

As Labor Market Sputters, Patterns Form for Eventual Economic Rebound

As regions nationwide steel themselves for the oncoming peaks of COVID-19 cases, the U.S. economy continues to stumble. But some emerging patterns suggest certain changes once it stabilizes.

For now, JPMorgan economists forecasted this week a 40% annualized decline in U.S. GDP for the second quarter, and a 20% surge in April's unemployment rate, with 25 million jobs lost. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits in the past three weeks totals 16.8 million.


What could be in store once the economy rebounds?

As a tech-savvy online jobs marketplace, ZipRecruiter has a unique vantage point to monitor and forecast the labor market. Labor economist Julia Pollak spoke with dot.LA about what the latest batch of data signals for the other side of the crisis.

Show Me the Data

"This recession is like no other we've experienced," said Pollak. "People are calling this the Great Cessation."

Some people "will find that during the recovery the economy will have changed beneath their feet."

There is no sugarcoating the gloom. According to figures ZipRecruiter provided to dot.LA, average daily job postings across the internet have been declining for six straight weeks; worse, the rate of decline has been accelerating. In all but four of the 27 industries that ZipRecruiter tracks, job postings have plunged between the weeks ending March 8th through April 5th.

Travel (-51%) and tourism (-31%) have been hit hardest. So have states dependent on these industries, like Hawaii (-25%) and Nevada (-24%). These states and sectors are highly sensitive to nationwide trends, noted Pollak, meaning once things start to rebound, they should see relatively quick recoveries.

Conversely, some job postings are growing fast. These include jobs* in:

  • Transportation: Commercial Flatbed Truck Driver postings are +2,614% over the past four weeks; Truck Driver Trainer +634%
  • Storage: Warehouse Laborer +83%, Warehouse Sorter +62%
  • Finance and Insurance: Claims Adjuster +212%, Financial Sales +93%
  • E-commerce: Distribution Associate +232%, Grocery Shopper +17%
  • Healthcare and Social Assistance: Intensive Care Nurse +188%, Nursing Assistant +184%
*Each with more than 1,000 daily active jobs on average each week.

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The best predictor of future behavior...

As for what these foretell regarding the future economic contours, Pollak suggests also looking at past trends.

"All kinds of slow, gradual transformations that we were seeing in the economy before are now going to happen very quickly," she forecasted.

This includes the decline of certain industries, like manufacturing and retail. "Stores will go into bankruptcy much sooner than they might have," noted Pollak.

Other industries are likely to continue their ascent. "The healthcare sector has added 278,000 jobs each year on average over the past 10 years," said Pollak. Expect more growth, especially given pent-up demand for elective procedures (assuming age demographic trends mostly hold).

Meanwhile, workers and consumers are acclimating to formerly peripheral activities now becoming mainstream.

"Some of the growth that's occurring now in e-commerce, distance learning and telemedicine will be permanent," Pollak predicted.

Throughout the economy, "people are learning new technologies (and) interacting with new goods and services that they hadn't used before. And some are enjoying the experience."

Fitter, Happier, More Productive

Firms, too, are adapting to new ways of doing business, which could mean increased productivity in the long run. "Companies have been forced to invest in all kinds of technology that may have been available and would have resulted in huge cost savings, and didn't (invest) because of inertia, but now that they've become familiar (with these technologies) they'll use them to great benefit," noted Pollak.

Reducing headcount, though often painful (and sometimes unceremonious), may also ultimately make companies healthier.

"People get confused when the stock market goes up despite people losing their jobs," tweeted former Presidential candidate Andrew Yang on Thursday. "The truth is that many companies will be more profitable and efficient with fewer employees."

As working from home becomes commonplace, companies will be able to reduce land costs; and those unit costs will likely be cheaper. Some studies suggest a distributed workforce may increase productivity.

Workers on the low-end of the earnings distribution may become more productive, too.

Pollak has found that the federal aid package, combined with unemployment benefits, has left nearly half of all American workers at least as well paid as they were before the pandemic--albeit temporarily. "This offers an opportunity for many low-wage workers to overcome barriers they had to higher-wage employment in better jobs before," she said. There is no guarantee such workers will seize that opportunity, but many now have the time and financial support to train for skills, certificates and licenses that were previously out of reach.

The big question is the extent to which the damage done to the labor market overmatches the positive trends--and how long it will take to close that gap. The longer the health crisis lasts, the worse the problem will become so long as net jobs continue to decline.

In the meantime, actions like those taken by the Fed and Congress will buy the economy time, in hopes of hastening what ZipRecruiter Chief Executive Officer Ian Siegel called the "great American comeback story to come."

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samblake@dot.la
The New Face of Live Shopping: Whatnot’s $5B Journey

🔦 Spotlight

Hello Los Angeles,

This week has been a challenging one for many in our city as we continue to face the aftermath of the recent wildfires. Recovery efforts are in full swing, and as always, the strength and resilience of our community shine through.

If you or someone you know has been impacted, there are resources available to help navigate this difficult time:

  • Pacific Palisades Fire Damage Maps: View here

These tools can provide support, whether you’re looking for financial assistance, housing resources, or updates on affected areas.

While our community focuses on recovery, we’re also reminded of what makes LA unique: its unrelenting drive to build, create, and innovate. A great example this week comes from Whatnot, the live shopping platform co-founded in 2019 by Grant LaFontaine and Logan Head, which has just achieved a major milestone.

Whatnot announced it raised $265 million in Series E funding, valuing the company at an impressive $5 billion.

For those unfamiliar, Whatnot combines shopping and entertainment through live-streamed auctions. Think of it as a vibrant, interactive marketplace where sellers showcase everything from trading cards and collectibles to fashion items, all in real time. Buyers can bid during the stream, creating a sense of excitement and connection that feels more personal than traditional online shopping.

The company’s new funding—co-led by Greycroft, DST Global, and Avra Capital—will drive expansion into markets like Australia and bring improvements to seller tools, from inventory management to advanced analytics. But what stands out most is Whatnot’s focus on its people. CEO Grant LaFontaine announced plans to buy back $72 million in shares for long-term employees, a move that underscores the company’s dedication to sharing its success.

As we move forward, let’s celebrate stories like these that show how innovation thrives in LA—even amid challenges. Whether it’s supporting wildfire recovery, building the next great startup, or simply connecting with others, we each play a role in shaping the spirit of our city.


🤝 Venture Deals

LA Companies

  • Phase Four, a leader in advanced in-space propulsion systems, announced the first close of its Series C funding round, securing nearly 60% of the target raise, led by Artemis Group Capital, to ramp up production of its Valkyrie Hall Effect Thrusters to at least 250 units annually and develop cutting-edge propulsion technologies for defense and national security needs. - learn more
  • Proper, a next-generation supplement brand launched by fitness entrepreneur Amanda Kloots, secured investment from Ben Bennett's Beauty Accelerator, The Center, to redefine the supplement industry with innovative, nutrient-focused wellness solutions tailored for modern lifestyles. - learn more
LA Venture Funds
  • Sound Ventures participated in a $17M funding round for Reshop, a platform simplifying the returns process for consumers and merchants, with plans to use the funds to enhance their technology and expand their services. - learn more
  • LFX Venture Partners participated in a $30M strategic funding round for Shippeo, a Paris-based company specializing in real-time multimodal supply chain transportation visibility; the funds will support Shippeo's global expansion, particularly across North America and the Asia-Pacific region. - learn more
  • Amboy Street Ventures participated in a $15M Series A+ funding round for Granata Bio, a biotechnology company focused on developing advanced gene therapies; the proceeds will be used to accelerate the development of their pipeline and expand their research capabilities. - learn more
  • BAM Ventures participated in a $700,000 seed funding round for MX Locker, an online marketplace for buying and selling motocross gear and parts; the company plans to use the proceeds to enhance its platform and expand its user base. - learn more
  • Crosscut Ventures participated in a $7.15M seed funding round for SoloPulse, an Atlanta-based company developing advanced radar technology; the funds will be used to enhance their product development and expand market reach. - learn more
  • Starburst Ventures participated in Loft Orbital’s $170M Series C funding round, bringing the San Francisco-based satellite infrastructure provider’s total capital raised to $280 million, with the funds aimed at accelerating their "condosat" missions to simplify and expand access to space. - learn more
  • Overture VC participated in a $100M Series B funding round for Harbinger, a Southern California-based electric vehicle company specializing in medium-duty EVs; the funds will be used to accelerate the production of their electric vehicle platforms. - learn more
  • Muse Capital and Time BioVentures participated in an $18M Series A funding round for Conceivable Life Sciences, a New York-based biotech company developing the world's first AI-powered automated IVF lab; the funds will support their ongoing commercial pilot program in Mexico City and preparations for a U.S. launch targeted for early 2026. - learn more
  • B Capital Group participated in a $25M Series B funding round for Labviva, a Boston-based AI-driven procurement platform for life sciences; the funds will be used to accelerate product development, enhance marketing and customer support, and expand internationally. - learn more
  • Focalpoint Partners participated in a seed funding round for Kerna Labs, a San Francisco-based AI biotechnology company focused on advancing mRNA payload design for new therapies, with the funds supporting operational expansion and development efforts. - learn more

LA Exits

  • Intracom Systems, a pioneer in software-based communication solutions, has been acquired by IPC, a global leader in trading communications technology, to enhance IPC's SaaS communications offerings for the financial services industry. - learn more
  • Adexa, a provider of advanced supply chain planning solutions, has been acquired by Eyelit Technologies to enhance its Manufacturing Operations Management (MOM) and Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) offerings and expand its market presence. - learn more
  • Caramel, a platform specializing in simplifying online vehicle transactions, has been acquired by eBay to enhance its offerings for secure and streamlined automotive buying and selling experiences. - learn more
  • ImaginAb, a biotechnology company specializing in antibody-based imaging and therapeutic solutions, has been acquired by Telix Pharmaceuticals to expand its next-generation therapeutic assets and biologics technology platform. - learn more
  • Sleepypod, a global leader in crash-test-certified safety harnesses and carriers for pets, has been acquired by Paw Prosper to enhance its commitment to pet well-being and expand its portfolio of innovative pet safety solutions. - learn more

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Standing Together Through the Flames

🔦 Spotlight

To our Los Angeles family,

This week’s wildfires have brought immense pain and hardship to our beloved city. Many of our friends, neighbors, and colleagues have faced evacuations, power outages, and the devastating loss of homes and livelihoods. Our hearts go out to everyone affected by this tragedy.

At dot.LA, we want to express our deepest sympathy to those suffering in this moment. We see your resilience and stand with you during this challenging time. This community has always been defined by its strength and compassion, and now is the time to come together in support.

If You or Someone You Know Has Been Impacted, Resources Are Available:

Evacuation Shelters:

  • Calvary Community Church: 5495 Via Rocas, Westlake Village, CA 91362
  • Ritchie Valens Recreation Center: 10736 Laurel Canyon Blvd., Pacoima, CA 91331
  • Pan Pacific Recreational Center: 7600 Beverly Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90036
  • Westwood Recreation Center: 1350 Sepulveda Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90025
  • Pasadena Civic Auditorium: 300 East Green Street, Pasadena, CA 91101
  • Pomona Fairplex: 1101 W McKinley Ave, Pomona, CA 91768
  • Stoner Recreation Center: 1835 Stoner Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90025

Animal Shelters:

Small Animals:

  • Agoura Animal Care Center: 29525 Agoura Rd, Agoura Hills, CA 91301
  • Baldwin Park Animal Care Center: 4275 Elton St, Baldwin Park, CA 91706
  • Carson Animal Care Center: 216 W Victoria St, Gardena, CA 90248
  • Downey Animal Care Center: 11258 Garfield Ave, Downey, CA 90242
  • Lancaster Animal Care Center: 5210 W Ave I, Lancaster, CA 93536
  • Palmdale Animal Care Center: 38550 Sierra Hwy, Palmdale, CA 93550

Large Animals:

  • Pomona Fairplex: 1101 W McKinley Ave, Pomona
  • Industry Hills Expo: 16200 Temple Ave, City of Industry, CA 91744
  • Antelope Valley Fair: 2551 W Avenue H, Lancaster, CA 93536
  • Los Angeles Equestrian Center: 480 W Riverside Dr, Burbank, CA 91506
  • Pierce College Equestrian Center: 7100 El Rancho Dr, Woodland Hills, CA 91371

Disaster Relief Information:

  • LA County Assessor: Information for property owners and FAQs about disaster relief.

Mental Health Support:

  • Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health: Crisis counseling and support for those affected. Access services through their website or call their hotline at (800) 854-7771.

Temporary Housing Support:

  • Airbnb: In partnership with 211 LA, offering free temporary housing for displaced residents. Spaces are limited; complete the form to be notified of availability.

Transportation Support:

  • Uber: Use promo code WILDFIRE25 for 2 free rides up to $40 each to/from active shelters.
  • Lyft: Code CAFIRERELIEF25 offers 2 rides up to $25 each for up to 500 riders, valid until 1/15.
  • Metro: Fare collection is suspended systemwide.

Staying Informed:

  • Watch Duty App: Provides real-time wildfire tracking, evacuation warnings, and updates.
  • Los Angeles Fire Department Alerts: Visit their website for the latest information on fire status and safety guidelines.

Safety Precautions:

  • Ready, Set, Go!: Personal Wildfire Action Plan by the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

To those in our community who are volunteering, donating, or offering aid in any form—thank you. Your efforts embody the spirit of LA: strong, compassionate, and unstoppable.

At dot.LA, we’re committed to amplifying stories of resilience and support. If you’ve seen inspiring acts of kindness or have resources to share, please let us know. Together, we can shine a light on the incredible ways this community is stepping up during these trying times.

In the days ahead, let’s hold tight to the bonds that unite us and remember that we are stronger together. The fires may scar the land, but they cannot dim the collective spirit of Los Angeles.

We’re here for you, and we’re with you.

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    A Strong Finish to 2024 for LA Tech: Crosscut Ventures Leads the Way

    🔦 Spotlight

    Happy Friday LA!

    As we close the book on 2024, Los Angeles has had a remarkable year in tech and venture capital. From groundbreaking funding rounds to industry-defining innovations, the city’s tech ecosystem has showcased its ability to adapt and thrive. Among the year’s final highlights was the announcement that Crosscut Ventures, one of LA’s premier early-stage venture capital firms, has added Jon Ylvisaker as its newest Partner.

    Crosscut Ventures’ Bold New Direction

    Announced in late December, Jon Ylvisaker’s appointment reflects Crosscut Ventures’ commitment to advancing its focus on the energy transition. Ylvisaker brings decades of experience in driving investments in energy technologies and digital infrastructure. As the founding partner and managing director of Yield Capital Partners, he led investments in startups and established companies shaping the future of sustainability. At Wolfacre Global Management, a Tiger Management hedge fund, he further honed his expertise in supporting impactful climate-focused solutions.

    Brian Garrett, Managing Director and Co-Founder of Crosscut Ventures, said, “Jon's extensive experience in climate and digital infrastructure investments, coupled with his impressive track record of bringing groundbreaking technologies to market, makes him the ideal partner to help lead our focus.”

    Since its founding in 2008, Crosscut has played a key role in shaping LA’s tech landscape. Ylvisaker’s addition reinforces the firm’s commitment to addressing global challenges like energy transition and sustainability, further solidifying its leadership in venture capital innovation.

    What’s Next for LA Tech in 2025

    The momentum from 2024 has set the stage for an even bigger year ahead. Entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators in LA are poised to take on new challenges and create meaningful change across industries.

    As we step into 2025, we want to thank everyone who helped make 2024 such a standout year. Here’s to another year of progress, innovation, and success. From all of us at dot.LA, Happy New Year!

    🤝 Venture Deals

    LA Companies

    • First Resonance, a company specializing in digital manufacturing software through its ION Factory OS, has raised a $20M funding round led by Third Prime with participation from Blue Bear Capital and others. This brings its total funding to $36M and will be used to accelerate product development, grow its customer base, and enhance support for advanced manufacturing sectors like aerospace, robotics, and clean energy. - learn more
    LA Venture Funds
    • Finality Capital Partners led a $17M Seed funding round for ChainOpera AI, a California-based company developing blockchain networks for AI-powered agents and applications, to accelerate product development, expand its team and enhance its blockchain and AI integration capabilities. - learn more

    LA Exits

    • Thirteen Lune, an inclusive beauty e-commerce platform, has been acquired by SNR Capital, marking a significant milestone in the platform's mission to amplify underrepresented beauty brands while fueling its next stage of growth. - learn more
    • Ergobaby, a leading brand in juvenile products known for its high-quality baby carriers, has been acquired by Highlander Partners. The acquisition aims to bolster Ergobaby’s growth, expand its product offerings, and strengthen its position in the parenting solutions market. - learn more

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