Orby TV Carves Out Its Place in the Attention Wars With a New Twist on an Old Model

Sam Blake

Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake

Orby TV Carves Out Its Place in the Attention Wars With a New Twist on an Old Model

One way to think about the entertainment industry is as a massive war for attention. Within that war rumbles the battle for at-home video dominance (often itself called a streaming war, which feels a bit like calling the Pacific theater of World War II the Pacific War).

At that battlefront, giants like Netflix and Disney spend boggling amounts of money and rack up mind-numbing debts. On the periphery, several smaller battalions like Tubi and Vudu wield their ad-funded service weapons. And scattered about it all, minor militias scurry in search of a patch to claim their own.

Orby TV thinks it's found one -- starting at about $40 a month compared to more high-priced competitors.


"We're looking at what we feel is an underserved segment," said Michael Thornton, Orby TV founder and chief executive. Previously chief revenue officer of Starz after stints at Disney and DirecTV, Thornton launched Orby TV in early 2019 out of Studio City for "people that are fed up with high prices and want a lean-back experience" where you "hit power, and then it's on."

For an installation fee and a monthly payment of less than half of what most cable or satellite services charge, Orby TV customers get dozens of cable channels via satellite dish, plus dozens more over-the-air (OTA) broadcast channels via digital antenna, all beamed through one coaxial cable into a TV that turns on with the click of a remote, complete with a program guide.

Orby TV's program guide integrates its broadcast and satellite channels

TV for a Toll

One reason Orby TV is relatively affordable is that it doesn't carry sports channels. Foregoing national and regional sports networks means saving on licensing costs, which the company can pass on to customers. Sports coverage from broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox) and Turner stations (TNT, TBS) remains available.

Orby TV also eschews channels that can only be had as parts of a bundle, many of which are owned and operated by the networks. Those bundles tend to be an all-or-nothing proposition.

"The industry has been and always will be very paranoid in terms of how it sets itself up," Thornton told dot.LA. "They have most favored nations clauses out the ying-yang (so there's) very little ability to cherry pick services."

The upshot is that Orby TV viewers can lean back and watch Fox (via broadcast), but not its cable channels like Fox News or Fox Sports; NBC, but not Bravo, MSNBC or Telemundo; ABC, but not ESPN, Disney Channel, or National Geographic.

Nevertheless, with a stable that still includes TNT, A&E, CNN, AMC and others, Orby TV's basic package includes 46 satellite cable channels, per its website, with upgrades available for an additional charge.

The digital antenna, meanwhile, picks up not just the major network broadcasts but also the OTA "digital subchannels" that flow alongside these transmissions in the government regulated broadcast spectrum. (Think stations like ABC-2, ABC-3, NBC-7, etc.) Reception quantity varies by location but the company noted that 150 OTA channels are available in Hermosa Beach, and 88 just outside of Denver. These all fit on the broadcast spectrum thanks to decades of digital compression advances, noted an Orby TV representative.

Throw in the technological infrastructure afforded by the cloud, remote communication tools, and data management systems, and Orby TV's innovation is simply taking advantage of a set of "tried and true" technologies and combining it with a prepaid business model to enable a simple, flexible, low-cost service.

Customers can cancel their monthly subscription anytime and return at leisure, and meanwhile keep the broadcast channels coming in from the antenna – which remain on the program guide. Add it all up, and media analyst Dan Rayburn calls Orby TV a "niche service that works well for what it does." Affordability and flexibility, notes Thornton, could be "particularly relevant right now given what people are going through" with the coronavirus crisis.

Who's it for?

Thornton cited the growing pool of the Pay TV-world's net losses–six million in the past year–as a potential source of subscribers, who could be looking for cheaper options.

Michael Thornton, CEO of Orby TV and UCLA Anderson Alum

"The downward trend in traditional (cable) that we've seen for the better part of a decade has been accelerating as consumers look for less expensive and more flexible options," noted Ian Olgeirson, senior analyst at SNL Kagan.

Rayburn sees a smaller addressable market for Orby TV: those who live in rural areas with poor access to broadband. Such technological deprivation often forecloses internet-delivered alternatives like YouTube TV, Hulu TV, or Sling TV

Leichtman generally concurs. Orby TV, he says, is primarily for "rural, non-sports fans."

One plus side of that, added Rayburn, is that "it's much easier for them to have lower customer acquisition costs because they can target specific people in a zip code or zone."

Thornton, though, is more aspirational. He sees an addressable market that includes not just those lacking broadband and Pay TV's net losses, but anyone currently with an OTA-only setup (difficult to precisely quantify) and even the 40 million-plus who "have a prepaid cell phone service and are familiar with the model," he said.

But even modest numbers might be enough.

"They don't need a lot of subscribers to be profitable," said Rayburn.

Thornton pegs it at around 80,000. Already claiming "tens of thousands of subscribers and growing," across all 48 states, with Best Buy as its biggest retailer, the plan is to break even by no later than early next year.

"We're essentially on schedule," he reported.

Orby TV's lead investor, a pension fund that requests anonymity, will presumably be pleased.

"We've always told our investor that we're open to exit strategies," Thornton said. "(But) it was always about providing a self-sustaining service."

"There's value in being a small company that's profitable," said Rayburn. "Everybody is trying to build such a big company. What's wrong with being a small company that grows every year and makes a profit?"

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As TikTok Faces a Ban, Competitors Prepare to Woo Its User Base

Kristin Snyder

Kristin Snyder is dot.LA's 2022/23 Editorial Fellow. She previously interned with Tiger Oak Media and led the arts section for UCLA's Daily Bruin.

As TikTok Faces a Ban, Competitors Prepare to Woo Its User Base
Evan Xie

This is the web version of dot.LA’s daily newsletter. Sign up to get the latest news on Southern California’s tech, startup and venture capital scene.

Another day, another update in the unending saga that is the potential TikTok ban.

The latest: separate from the various bills proposing a ban, the Biden administration has been in talks with TikTok since September to try and find a solution. Now, having thrown its support behind Senator MarkWarner’s bill, the White House is demanding TikTok’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, sell its stakes in the company to avoid a ban. This would be a major blow to the business, as TikTok alone is worth between $40 billion and $50 billion—a significant portion of ByteDance’s $220 billion value.

Clearly, TikTok faces an uphill battle as its CEO Shou Zi Chew prepares to testify before the House Energy and Commerce Committee next week. But other social media companies are likely looking forward to seeing their primary competitor go—and are positioning themselves as the best replacement for migrating users.

Meta

Last year, The Washington Post reported that Meta paid a consulting firm to plant negative stories about TikTok. Now, Meta is reaping the benefits of TikTok’s downfall, with its shares rising 3% after the White House told TikTok to leave ByteDance. But this initial boost means nothing if the company can’t entice creators and viewers to Instagram and Facebook. And it doesn’t look promising in that regard.

Having waffled between pushing its short-form videos, called Reels, and de-prioritizing them in the algorithm, Instagram announced last week that it would no longer offer monetary bonuses to creators making Reels. This might be because of TikTok’s imminent ban. After all, the program was initially meant to convince TikTok creators to use Instagram—an issue that won’t be as pressing if TikTok users have no choice but to find another platform.

Snap

Alternatively, Snap is doing the opposite and luring creators with an ad revenue-sharing program. First launched in 2022, creators are now actively boasting about big earnings from the program, which provides 50% of ad revenue from videos. Snapchat is clearly still trying to win over users with new tech like its OpenAI chatbot, which it launched last month. But it's best bet to woo the TikTok crowd is through its new Sounds features, which suggest audio for different lenses and will match montage videos to a song’s rhythm. Audio clips are crucial to TikTok’s platform, so focusing on integrating songs into content will likely appeal to users looking to recreate that experience.

YouTube

With its short-form ad revenue-sharing program, YouTube Shorts has already lured over TikTok creators. It's even gotten major stars like Miley Cyrus and Taylor Swift to promote music on Shorts. This is likely where YouTube has the best bet of taking TikTok’s audience. Since TikTok has become deeply intertwined with the music industry, Shorts might be primed to take its spot. And with its new feature that creates compiles all the videos using a specific song, Shorts is likely hoping to capture musicians looking to promote their work.

Triller

The most blatant attempt at seducing TikTok users, however, comes from Triller, which launched a portal for people to move their videos from TikTok to its platform. It’s simple, but likely the most effective tactic—and one that other short-form video platforms should try to replicate. With TikTok users worried about losing their backlog of content, this not only lets users archive but also bolsters Triller’s content offerings. The problem, of course, is that Triller isn’t nearly as well known as the other platforms also trying to capture TikTok users. Still, those who are in the know will likely find this option easier than manually re-uploading content to other sites.

It's likely that many of these platforms will see a momentary boost if the TikTok ban goes through. But all of these companies need to ensure that users coming from TikTok actually stay on their platforms. Considering that they have already been upended by one newcomer when TikTok took over, there’s good reason to believe that a new app could come in and swoop up TikTok’s user base. As of right now, it's unclear who will come out on top. But the true loser is the user who has to adhere to the everyday whims of each of these platforms.

https://twitter.com/ksnyder_db

We Asked Our Readers How They’re Using AI in a Professional Setting. Here's What They Said

Decerry Donato

Decerry Donato is a reporter at dot.LA. Prior to that, she was an editorial fellow at the company. Decerry received her bachelor's degree in literary journalism from the University of California, Irvine. She continues to write stories to inform the community about issues or events that take place in the L.A. area. On the weekends, she can be found hiking in the Angeles National forest or sifting through racks at your local thrift store.

We Asked Our Readers How They’re Using AI in a Professional Setting. Here's What They Said
Evan Xie

According to Pew Research data, 27% of Americans interact with AI on a daily basis. With the launch of Open AI’s latest language model GPT-4, we asked our readers how they use AI in a professional capacity. Here’s what they told us:

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The Near Miss Apocalypse: Predictions for Post SVB Collapse

Spencer Rascoff

Spencer Rascoff serves as executive chairman of dot.LA. He is an entrepreneur and company leader who co-founded Zillow, Hotwire, dot.LA, Pacaso and Supernova, and who served as Zillow's CEO for a decade. During Spencer's time as CEO, Zillow won dozens of "best places to work" awards as it grew to over 4,500 employees, $3 billion in revenue, and $10 billion in market capitalization. Prior to Zillow, Spencer co-founded and was VP Corporate Development of Hotwire, which was sold to Expedia for $685 million in 2003. Through his startup studio and venture capital firm, 75 & Sunny, Spencer is an active angel investor in over 100 companies and is incubating several more.

The Near Miss Apocalypse: Predictions for Post SVB Collapse
Evan Xie

The historic Silicon Valley Bank collapse dominated headlines recently, and the tech and financial communities have only just started processing the aftermath. The 48-hour breakdown was both historic and a few inches away from economically catastrophic, and thanks to the swift moves of the FDIC, complete disaster was avoided.

But it’s still been disruptive. SVB was the banking partner for nearly half of U.S. venture-backed technology and healthcare companies that listed on stock markets in 2022, making it one of the biggest lenders for early-stage startups. The aftershocks of SVB’s breakdown spread just as far and fast as the main event: the close of Signature Bank just two days later, major market volatility, other banking crises at Credit Suisse, tech industry troubles, and much more.

In the days since, things have settled slightly, and the world’s fingers are crossed that depositors are comforted enough and confident enough to avoid another bank run. It’s good news, but we aren’t out of the woods yet. Now that we know the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history could be looming around any corner, how does that change the ways startups do business?

Level, Set, Go

Before we get into what could happen, it’s smart to level-set about how we got here. (And for an introductory primer, this short podcast can help.)

  • The government 100% did the right thing by assuring depositors that they will be made whole. The FDIC swooped in, steadied the ship, and made sure people had the money they needed when they needed it.
  • Some have called this a ‘bailout', but it’s not for two reasons. 1) SVB shareholders and creditors will be wiped out and 2) taxpayer money is not being used to do any bailing.
  • Remember: depositors are not creditors. When companies and people put money into their accounts at SVB, they had every reason to expect that it would be there when they needed to withdraw it. They weren’t loaning the money to SVB (as a creditor would), they were depositing money into their own account at SVB for safekeeping.
  • People who say “depositors took a risk by having more than the FDIC insured $250K limit” are, ahem, a bit misguided. (I’m being polite). The truth is that $250K is not that much money for a company, especially of the size and scale of some of SVB's major customers.

Here’s where I think we should go from here.

The Short Term

While SVB’s failure didn’t launch us over the precipice, many people are rightfully feeling very nervous being this close to the edge.

Looking out to the next few weeks, I predict we’ll see venture funding slow way down. It’s been chilly out there recently, but it’s going to be ice cold, piggybacking on the already struggling tech landscape. Writing new checks will take a backseat to checking in on existing investments. VCs will need to assess where their cash is and where their portfolio companies stand, and likewise startups are going to have to start thinking hard about what it means to be lean and extend runway. Hopefully this only lasts a few weeks and the wheels of the machine start turning again before summer.

If there is a positive take on the SVB wreckage, it’s that the Fed will likely slow down the rate of increases. I’d predict a 25, maybe even 0, basis-point increase next week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a rate cut later this year.

Whither venture debt?

Prior to SVB’s failure, it was very common for a startup to have enough cash at SVB for one year of runway, plus a venture debt line for an additional another year. SVB profited from this by charging interest plus warrants and requiring banking exclusivity. It was part and parcel of how they did business, and since they’ve transitioned from success story to cautionary tale, expect to see new regulations prohibiting banks from requiring customer exclusivity in exchange for additional services.

In the immediate term, companies who had venture debt lines with SVB are trying to decide whether to put their cash back in SVB in order to access that venture debt. The whole situation is surreal, since just a few days ago these same companies were scrambling to pull their money out of SVB, and now they are considering returning. There are conflicting reports, but it appears that SVB is allowing these companies to keep a second banking relationship with another bank (so no more exclusivity), but at least half of their cash must be with SVB.

For startups choosing not to access that venture debt line, now trying to figure out how to operate without venture debt (aka less hiring, less spending, less growth), they’re in for challenging times ahead. To fill that funding gap, maybe we’ll see more private lenders step in and provide venture debt as a product. If that is the case, I suspect terms will be tougher and many VCs will recommend against it for their companies.

Another prediction: audit committees of boards will come into play much earlier than they often do now. Given the ever larger seed and Series A/B rounds, it wasn’t uncommon to see startups that had raised $100M+ and had 200+ employees before an audit committee was formed. I suspect these will now be formed upfront and have a much bigger role to play in early stages.

Silver Lining

The good news: the world isn’t ending and won’t in the near future (at least, not because of this). Yes, things will be different and it will take some time to settle into a post-SVB startup environment, but with change comes adaptation. And with adaptation comes innovation, which is what startups are all about.

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