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XDespite Better Unemployment Numbers, Job Sites See 'an Early Tsunami Warning' in Hiring Data
Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake

- Although Friday's U.S. jobs data show continued declines in unemployment, many economists, such as from ZipRecruiter and LinkedIn, are concerned at the data they're seeing.
- One of them called the decline in employers' job postings on ZipRecruiter "an early tsunami warning" and a "pull-the-ripcord emergency moment."
- Several factors suggest pessimism from businesses about the near future, including the recent dry-up of government stimulus alongside ongoing operating constraints due to the pandemic.
Friday's jobs report showed the U.S. unemployment figures continuing their decline to 8.4% in August, from a high of 14.7% in April.
Despite that welcome news, more recent data from L.A.-based ZipRecruiter contains unsettling signs for the future. After 10 weeks of rising activity from employers, job postings have reverted to a downward trend since mid-August.
"This is an early tsunami warning," ZipRecruiter labor economist Julia Pollak told dot.LA. "It could be the start of exactly the sort of systemic breakdown the government was trying to avoid in the beginning [of the pandemic]."
U.S. data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local data provided by the California Employment Development Department and includes seasonally adjusted final data except for July, for which finalized data was not yet available. No local data was yet available for August.
Unemployment rates don't tell a full story about where the economy is headed, Pollak said. It's a reminder that she wants people in power to heed.
"I think Congress should see this as an emergency sign," she said, noting that job postings on ZipRecruiter tend to be an early indicator of job growth – or decline.
The job picture in California and Los Angeles is similar to that of the country at large, according to ZipRecruiter's data. Los Angeles has one of the highest rates of unemployment among large metro areas.
LinkedIn, another job board, found hiring was 16.2% lower this August than last year.
It's not surprising to Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist at the UCLA Anderson School of Management. He worries it will exacerbate inequality in Los Angeles, as industries being hit hardest tend to skew toward lower-income sectors, like logistics and tourism.
Nickelsburg said the federal unemployment data paints it a murky picture. The regulatory changes in recent months that led to a number of re-openings "mask what's going on underneath" at the economic level, he said. "We have less visibility than we normally have," Nickelsburg added. Assuming a continuation of the start-and-stop pace of opening up and the regulatory response, he foresees a "soft labor market in spite of the strong jobs report," noting that the job growth in today's data is fueled in part by temporary positions associated with the U.S. Census.
LinkedIn's principal economist Guy Berger also reported this week that hiring observed on LinkedIn (measured by the share of members adding a new employer to their profiles) fell from July to August. "Our takeaway is that this month's data shows that the virus has created a 'ceiling' on just how much the economy can return to normal," he said. "Given how much higher COVID transmission is here in the U.S. vs. aboard, the ceiling might be lower here."
"My real fear is what will happen in September," Pollak said. "I look at a downturn in job postings as a break-the-glass, pull-the-ripcord emergency moment."
Pollak said her alarm follows weeks of optimism. More companies had been signing up for ZipRecruiter's services. Every single industry and every single state had seen job postings increase in July and August, she said. But now, those trends have stopped, and a number of factors appear to be turning that summer of hope into a fall reckoning:
Ongoing Uncertainty: Without clarity on the pandemic and the government's policy to stop it, businesses remain inclined to do what they usually do in the face of uncertainty: sit and wait. Berger, the LinkedIn economist, said this is due at least in part to a "less centralized U.S. response" to the pandemic and that the uncertainty is holding businesses back from long-term investing and hiring.
Reduced Economic Activity: Anticipated closures of spectator sports, performing arts, colleges and ski resorts will hurt not just the businesses in those industries, but also adjacent ones like bars and restaurants. This expected dampening follows a quiet summer, which is normally the banner season for many such businesses. "Summer profit margins weren't large enough to sustain many businesses," Pollak said. Facing a future with fewer customers, "many will have to close in the fall."
Government Stimulus Is Drying Up: The $350 billion payment protection program loans designed to help employers pay their workers during the shutdowns ceased on August 8th. $600 weekly unemployment checks expired in July, causing a $60 billion reduction in unemployment payouts in August. "That is almost certainly reducing consumer spending right now," Pollak said, pointing to a survey ZipRecruiter conducted this summer that found over 40% of respondents would be unable to pay their rent if unemployment payments shrunk. Congressional talks on renewing a stimulus program have been gridlocked.
Schools Aren't Opening: Berger called virtual classes and delayed school re-openings "a severe challenge for households where all parents work." That's behind his topline takeaway that, in addition to a vaccine, his data point to a "need to get money back in the hands of Americans who need it and a childcare solution for the interim."
Consumer Confidence Is Down: Conference Board, a think tank, released data this week that consumer confidence has fallen two months in a row. "If confidence goes down, we can expect spending to go down," Pollak said – both among those who have no choice and those on the fence about, say, buying a house or a new car.
Pollak added that since neither the stock market nor housing values have crashed, her data point to widespread "concern about COVID, the future course of policy, and the ability for businesses to reopen and be sustainable given reduced sales and rules limiting their capacity."
Over the coming months she and others will be closely watching for the speed at which jobs are able to return to their pre-COVID baseline, and other indicators of a dynamic labor market. These include participation rates among prime-age workers and women, wage growth and long-term unemployment. But as long as the pandemic lingers, those indicators may be tepid.
"We can't fully bounce back until there is more certainty around the virus," Berger said.
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Sam primarily covers entertainment and media for dot.LA. Previously he was Marjorie Deane Fellow at The Economist, where he wrote for the business and finance sections of the print edition. He has also worked at the XPRIZE Foundation, U.S. Government Accountability Office, KCRW, and MLB Advanced Media (now Disney Streaming Services). He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson, an MPP from UCLA Luskin and a BA in History from University of Michigan. Email him at samblake@dot.LA and find him on Twitter @hisamblake
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TikTok’s Latest Ad Strategy: Let Brands Crowdsource Creators
Kristin Snyder is an editorial intern for dot.la. She previously interned with Tiger Oak Media and led the arts section for UCLA's Daily Bruin.
TikTok’s newest advertising program will allow brands to crowdsource content from creators.
Branded Mission, which the Culver City-based video-sharing app announced Wednesday, is currently being beta-tested. The program lets brands release briefs containing specific creative directions—such as incorporating a specific hashtag, visual effect or audio—with the goal of procuring videos that will become promoted ads. Creators with at least 1,000 followers will be compensated with cash payments if the content performs well.
Creators participating in the “authentic branded content” program, as TikTok described it, can choose which brand initiatives they wish to participate in—with each Branded Mission “page” highlighting details like how much money a creator could potentially receive for participating. TikTok told Business Insider that it’s testing various payment models, including a first-come, first-serve model as well as “boosted traffic” compensation.
“Creators are at the center of creativity, culture and entertainment on TikTok,” the social media firm said in a statement. “With Branded Mission, we're excited to bring even more creators into the branded content ecosystem and explore ways to reward emerging and established creators.”
TikTok’s previous advertising strategies have relied on creators with large followings, with the recently announced TikTok Pulse targeting users with at least 100,000 followers. Branded Mission, on the other hand, gives creators with smaller platforms a chance to make more revenue beyond programs like TikTok’s Creator Fund.
Kristin Snyder is an editorial intern for dot.la. She previously interned with Tiger Oak Media and led the arts section for UCLA's Daily Bruin.
Greater Good Health Raises $10 Million To Fix America’s Doctor Shortage
Keerthi Vedantam is a bioscience reporter at dot.LA. She cut her teeth covering everything from cloud computing to 5G in San Francisco and Seattle. Before she covered tech, Keerthi reported on tribal lands and congressional policy in Washington, D.C. Connect with her on Twitter, Clubhouse (@keerthivedantam) or Signal at 408-470-0776.
The pandemic highlighted what’s been a growing trend for years: Medical students are prioritizing high-paying specialty fields over primary care, leading to a shortage of primary care doctors who take care of a patient’s day-to-day health concerns. These physicians are a cornerstone of preventative health care, which when addressed can lower health care costs for patients, insurers and the government. But there’s a massive shortage of doctors all over the country, and the pipeline for primary care physicians is even weaker.
One local startup is offering a possible answer to this supply squeeze: nurse practitioners.
On Wednesday, Manhattan Beach-based Greater Good Health unveiled $10 million in new funding led by LRVHealth, adding to $3 million in seed funding raised by the startup last year. The company employs nurse practitioners and pairs them with doctor’s offices and medical clinics; this allows nurse practitioners to take on patients who would otherwise have to wait weeks, or even months, to see a doctor.
“This access and equity issue is just going to become more pervasive if we don't do things to help people gain more access,” Greater Good founder and CEO Sylvia Hastanan told dot.LA. “We need more providers to offer more patients appointments and access to their time to take care of their needs. And in order to do that, we really need to think about the workforce.”
There has been a growing movement in the medical industry to use nurse practitioners in place of increasingly scarce primary care physicians. California passed a law in 2020 that will widen the scope of nurse practitioners and allow them to operate without a supervising physician by 2023. Amid a shortage of doctors, there’s also the question of what will become of the largest and longest-living elderly population in recent history, Baby Boomers. Public health officials are already scrambling for ways to take care of this aging demographic’s myriad health needs while also addressing the general population.
“By the time you and I get old enough where we need primary care providers to help us with our ailments and chronic conditions, there aren't [going to be] enough of them,” Hastanan said. “And/or there just isn't going to be enough support for those nurse practitioners to really thrive in that way. And I worry about what our system will look like.”
Nurse practitioners function much like doctors do—they can monitor vitals, diagnose patients, and, in some cases, prescribe medication (though usually under the supervision of a doctor). Nurse practitioners need to get either a master’s degree or higher in nursing and complete thousands of hours of work in a clinical setting. All told, it usually takes six-to-eight years to become a nurse practitioner, compared to 10-to-15 years to become a practicing physician.
Greater Good Health’s platform puts nurse practitioners in often years-long care settings where they manage patients—most of whom are chronically ill, high-risk patients that need to be seen regularly and thoroughly. This allows them to follow up more carefully on patients they have managed for years, instead of catching up on a new patient’s history and treating them in the moment. Patients, meanwhile, don’t have to see a rotating door of clinicians and can talk to a provider they already have an established rapport with.
The one-year-old startup will use the funding to provide learning and development opportunities for its nurse practitioners and also connect them with each other through virtual support groups. Burnout has been an issue across health care during the pandemic, spurring an exodus of nursing and support staff and leaving health care facilities woefully understaffed. Greater Good hopes that keeping nurse practitioners in more stable, years-long care situations and offering them career development opportunities will help retain them and keep them in the workforce longer.
“We want them to be well-rounded and balanced both in work and life, and we see that returns us healthier, more engaged and ready nurse practitioners,” Hastanan said.
Keerthi Vedantam is a bioscience reporter at dot.LA. She cut her teeth covering everything from cloud computing to 5G in San Francisco and Seattle. Before she covered tech, Keerthi reported on tribal lands and congressional policy in Washington, D.C. Connect with her on Twitter, Clubhouse (@keerthivedantam) or Signal at 408-470-0776.
Plus Capital Partner Amanda Groves on Celebrity Equity Investments
On this episode of the L.A. Venture podcast, Amanda Groves talks about how PLUS Capital advises celebrity investors and why more high-profile individuals are choosing to invest instead of endorse.
As a partner at PLUS, Groves works with over 70 artists and athletes, helping to guide their investment strategies. PLUS advises their talent roster to combine their financial capital with their social capital and focus on five investment areas: the future of work, future of education, health and wellness, the conscious consumer and sustainability.
“The idea is if we can leverage these people who have incredible audiences—and influence over that audience—in the world of venture capital, you'd be able to help make those businesses move forward faster,” Groves said.
PLUS works to create celebrity partnerships by identifying each client’s passions and finding companies that align with them, Groves said. From there, the venture firm can reach out to prospective partners from its many contacts and can help evaluate businesses that approach its clients. Recently, PLUS paired actress Nina Dobrev with the candy company SmartSweets after she had told them about her love for its snacks.
Celebrity entrepreneurship has shifted quite a bit in recent years, Groves said. While celebrities are paid for endorsements, Groves said investing allows them to gain equity from the growth of companies that benefit from their work.
“Like in movies, for example, where they're earning a residual along the way, they thought, ‘You know, if we're going to partner with these brands and create a tremendous amount of enterprise value, we should be able to capture some of the upside that we're generating, too’,” she said.
Partnering in this way also allows her clients to work with a wider range of brands, including small brands that often can’t afford to spend millions on endorsements. Investing allows high-profile individuals to represent brands they care about, Groves said.
“The last piece of the puzzle was a drive towards authenticity,” Groves said. “A lot of these high-profile artists and athletes are not interested, once they've achieved some sort of level of success, in partnering with brands that they don't personally align with.”
Hear the full episode by clicking on the playhead above, and listen to LA Venture on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
dot.LA Editorial Intern Kristin Snyder contributed to this post.