'Even Spaceships Must Return to Earth': Morgan Stanley Warns Investors on Virgin Galactic Stock
Ben Bergman
Ben Bergman is the newsroom's senior reporter, covering venture capital. Previously he was a senior business reporter and host at KPCC, a senior producer at Gimlet Media, a producer at NPR's Morning Edition, and produced two investigative documentaries for KCET. He has been a frequent on-air contributor to business coverage on NPR and Marketplace and has written for The New York Times and Columbia Journalism Review. Ben was a 2017-2018 Knight-Bagehot Fellow in Economic and Business Journalism at Columbia Business School. In his free time, he enjoys skiing, playing poker, and cheering on The Seattle Seahawks. Follow him on Twitter.
Take your pick of metaphors – rocketing, earth shattering, stratospheric - Virgin Galactic stock has been surging this year, up more than 200%. The Mojave-based company now has a market capitalization of $7.2 billion even though it only generated $3 million in revenue last year.
Why all the excitement? No one seems to know, including Morgan Stanley, which issued a research note Thursday expressing bewilderment.
"We do struggle to identify significant thesis changing/accelerating events since the time of our initiation in early December of 2019," wrote analyst Adam Jonas in a note titled "Even Spaceships Must Return to Earth."
Jonas said he was surprised by the volume and volatility of the stock and he urged investors to be cautious. "A modest correction is overdue, and frankly, healthy," he wrote.
Investors did not seem phased by the warning, however, as the stock was nearly flat in Thursday's trading session after the note was published, though it dropped nearly 10% in after-hours trading. The stock closed Thursday at $37.26 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Virgin Galactic became the first publicly traded commercial space tourism company in October, going through a reverse merger.
The company's two competitors, Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, are privately held. Blue Origin, headquartered near Seattle is funded almost entirely by the Amazon CEO while Hawthorne-based SpaceX is VC and debt funded. The company, which is now valued at over $33 billion, got its latest financing from an $800 million Revolver facility from Bank of America in December.
Virgin Galactic will report earnings for only the second time as a public company on Feb. 25
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Eliminating battery waste, developing new hair growth therapy, fixing carbon dioxide. These are among some of the ambitious problems that companies are trying to solve at the First Look SoCal Innovation Showcase beginning Tuesday.
Hosted by nonprofit Alliance for SoCal Innovation, the online event connects early-stage tech and life science companies with investors and serial entrepreneurs.
<p>Founders of the 30 companies selected to participate come from universities and academic institutions across the region. Tech developed by these researchers and scientists is just emerging from labs, said Steven Gilison from the Alliance. This means most take longer to fundraise than typical startups and this opportunity often represents the start of their funding journey. </p><p>It's the third year the Alliance will host <a href="https://www.alliancesocal.org/events/alliance-events/first-look-socal-2020" target="_blank">the showcase</a>, which has been running for over 10 years. The event starts Tuesday with a daylong focus on life science founders and ends with the next day centered on tech. Each day begins with a keynote presentation and ends with a VC investor panel — a feature that last year brought in funding for several startups. </p><p>Here's a snapshot of the founders gearing up to pitch: </p>
BioZen Batteries Aims to Solve Our Energy Storage Issues
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://dot.la/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDI0Nzg5MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNTg3OTYyNn0.y9dSMjovB1GtsQ1SZhKiPTIJY3VW0XOE2YXd-JN1xYU/image.jpg?width=980" id="95064" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c3ad9197ad70005802e6d34d6da3c29d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Left to right: BioZen Batteries' co-founders Zach Rengert, Nate Kirchhofer and Eric Brigham.
<p>Nate Kirchhofer, co-founder and CEO of <a href="https://biozenbatteries.com/" target="_blank">BioZen Batteries</a>, wants to make batteries that will outlive him.</p><p>Santa Barbara-based BioZen creates organic electrolytes, the active material inside a specific type of battery called a "redox flow battery." It's a different type of technology that differs from the lithium batteries often used in mobile applications like cars and phones. Only 5% of those get recycled.</p><p>BioZen's batteries are well suited for green, large-scale energy storage, Kirchhofer said. For example, batteries that help solar panels connect to the grid or provide backup during disasters when the power goes out.</p><p>Kirchhofer, an electrochemist, founded the company in June of 2019 with Zach Rengert, a materials chemist, and Eric Brigham, the company's CFO. Kirchhofer and Rengert met while getting their doctorate at UC Santa Barbara.</p><p>There hasn't yet been a push for sustainable batteries because it isn't economically incentivized, Kirchhofer told dot.LA. He said that his batteries are cheaper than competitors.</p><p>Kirchhofer's product fits into a growing renewable energy market and a social movement in which individuals want to do their part. He's worked for four startups but says this one is poised to make the biggest impact.</p><p>"If it's not our generation that solves climate change, there's not another chance. There's not another Earth." he said. "If we can make these batteries happen, we can truly integrate renewable energy and stop the petroleum-dominated energy paradigm we're part of."</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://dot.la/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDI0ODAzMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NDg3MDg1NX0.mXMFvLaboDfKTq6Eh2KnK-WJMPjG---pcvmC-C8VDwo/image.jpg?width=1500&coordinates=0%2C54%2C0%2C55&height=2000" id="2dbc8" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4ab24b441f2cc7d1a5f6f23fa1171070" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Amplifica's founder Dr. Maksim Plikus
Amplifica Treats Baldness with Mole Molecules
<p>Back in 2013, Amplifica's founder Dr. Maksim Plikus began studying hairy moles. Though some find the growths unsightly, his work showed promise for baldness treatment.</p><p>He, along with colleagues at UC Irvine, discovered that molecules from moles that grow excessive hair can induce follicle growth when administered anywhere on the skin.</p><p>"As long as you can tease it out and replicate it in the form of purified molecules, you can achieve essentially what we think would be a novel, revolutionary solution to baldness," Plikus told dot.LA.</p><p>Plikus said his company is the first to solve hair loss by replicating cells from hairy moles to stimulate hair growth. At the moment, hair follicle research has emerged as a leading experimental model for studying stem cells.</p><p>By 2025, hair-loss products are projected to surpass $12 billion, Plikus said. But only two drugs are FDA approved and require daily treatment in the form of pills, which he said come with long-term side effects.</p><p>Amplifica says it's poised to put a more effective and convenient solution on the market. Pinkus' proposed product is a topical solution requiring less frequent application, like getting Botox injections a few times per year.</p>FixingCO2 Aims to Recycle Fuel from the Air
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://dot.la/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDI0ODM4My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMzA1ODA4MH0.9RqwD9zUN1et1kor8zNPj8WH2kOX6SrysdpRDFT5QMc/image.jpg?width=980" id="daa89" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9851b177139c4b5e06bd9c96fb395083" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />FixingCO2's team. CEO Eldar Akhmetgaliyev is at right.
<p><a href="https://fixingco2.com/" target="_blank">FixingCO2</a> got its start on Mars. Like the name says, the company aims to fix the global carbon problem that's fueling climate change.</p><p>In 2018, co-founder Alma Zhanaidarova's professor and research group at UC San Diego received a grant from NASA to build out a reactor that makes renewable fuels and chemicals from carbon dioxide, often a byproduct of industrial waste. The technology was being developed in anticipation of a one-day human mission to Mars, where 95% of the atmosphere is carbon dioxide.</p><p>Now, the San Diego-based startup is commercializing their product for earthlings.</p><p>"It's a different application but the same core technology," co-founder Eldar Akhmetgaliyev told dot.LA. "Instead of making fuels from oil or any other fossil sources, we can make them essentially from air."</p><p>The team is developing the hardware to capture industrial emissions blamed for much of the Earth's warming. The product has significant application for the aviation industry, where planes are built to burn jet fuel that produces carbon emissions.</p><p>"These kinds of technologies provide them a pathway to decarbonization," he said. "They can use fuels made from CO2 so they're not contributing to climate change."</p><p>As fires burn through California and the Pacific Northwest, Akhmetgaliyev said there's urgency for innovators in the carbon tech market. "We're pretty much turning our planet into Mars," he said.</p><p>He said that by 2050, about 14% of overall carbon reduction will come from carbon capture and utilization (CCUS) technology like his.</p><p>"The market hasn't met its opportunity and with the effects of climate change being seen everyday, there's going to be more drive towards these low carbon technologies."</p>From Your Site Articles
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This Test Prep Service has a Cult Following Among Med Students. Soon it Will Have an Animation Studio
Sep 24 2020
The unnamed king wears a crown and large pink robe as he grasps a tissue to his nose.
No, this isn't some Netflix show on the quarantine lives of the rich and famous; it's actually a method SketchyMedical uses to help students recall complicated concepts.
Such images by Los Angeles-based online education startup SketchyMedical have helped catapult the company to cult status among the med school set, who dress up in their drawings for Halloween. One fan even got a tattoo of SketchyMedical's pencil representing penicillin.
On Thursday, SketchyMedical announced its first outside investment stake, a $30 million shot in the arm from former Hollywood executive Peter Chernin's investment firm TCG to help establish an in-house animation studio that will bring to life those famous sketches and expand its team of 30 employees.
<p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://dot.la/media-library/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDQzNTQ2Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzI1NDcyOH0.9hyHaZlTsEIS2zmyYLbon3tCbPwadBCEw9I9N9wG2XQ/image.png?width=980" id="4c67a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="2f5f0ff6c8902a4e35c2ff0743e618e8" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
</p><p>The funds will also help SketchyMedical bring its symbolic characters and scenes to other health professions, as well as create new ones for students preparing for the MCAT in the short term and new subjects like law over the next few years.<br/></p><p>"We are reintroducing this method in modern education that's really been lost, and the students have noticed, and it works and they're using it," said CEO and cofounder Saud Siddiqui. "We're really looking forward to expanding our reach, making this accessible no matter what they're studying."</p><p>SketchyMedical's success is part of the recent trend toward the consumerization of education — a trend that has been rapidly accelerated by the pandemic.</p><p>Students pay thousands annually for medical entrance and licensing exams, flocking to big name test prep companies and paying thousands more to prepare. As the internet has provided myriad more ways to connect and learn, it's become a buyer's market for students looking to differentiate themselves from their peers and ace those exams. </p><p>The company was founded by medical students for medical students in 2013 after its four co-founders used similar techniques with great efficacy while preparing for their board exams.</p><p>SketchyMedical has been profitable since its early days through its subscription model, which offers tiered pricing — from roughly $230 to $550 for up to two years of programming — that includes video lessons, review cards and quizzes. The company currently has more than 30,000 active subscriptions.<br/></p><p>Sketchy Medical relies on the "memory palace technique," from an era when oral tradition meant memorizing long stories passed on from one generation to the next. Med students are given a simple visual way into the material through characters, storylines and humor. </p><p>For example, in one sketch <em>a naked Mona Lisa sits in a red-colored bathtub by the fire, petting a dalmatian and holding grapes.</em></p><p>She represents the bacteria known as pseudomonas aeruginosa, which thrives in aquatic environments and is classified as a gram-negative bacilli. It produces a fruity grape-like odor when plated and has swarming motility</p><p>In another four-minute coronavirus lesson, the crown represents the "coronaviridae" family of RNA viruses, the robe represents the fact that it is enveloped, while the tissue represents how they cause the common cold. The image shows up in pictures whenever a coronavirus becomes relevant.</p><p>Siddiqui said the company found students had a 30% improvement in recall using its method. Anecdotally, he said even the non-medical artists at the company are getting 100% on the preclinical quizzes from working on the images. </p><p>Cofounder Andrew Berg, speaking in front of a Zoom backdrop featuring the company's pencil (penicillin) drawing, said professors across the country have also integrated the company's sketches into lecture slides. </p><p>And Siddiqui said the company has seen more institutions using SketchyMedical during the COVID-19 pandemic as they've tried to find creative ways to supplement their traditional lectures.</p><p>"We argue that everybody is a visual learner, that our brain has evolved to be really good at visual spatial recall," Siddiqui said. "It's necessary for survival to know where that fruit grew or where that dangerous predator was, or our cave. This is the same for animals. This bird can remember the location of 30,000 seeds across the landscape."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-youtube">
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</p><p>TCG vice president Michaela Venuti said the consumer-focused investment fund has been diving deep into the education space for the last year and a half and seen students take ownership of their education, picking and choosing among a wealth of new products tailored to their interests, area of specialty or aspirations.<br/></p><p>"Consumers can make decisions about what supplemental tools they want to use and build their own education," Venuti said. "A lot of that has been accelerated during the pandemic, and Sketchy fits well in this broader scheme of consumers choosing."</p><p>Venuti said TCG interviewed graduate and med school students as part of its work in the education space and 100% of the students they talked to mentioned Sketchy as a crucial tool to get through med school. That known brand name should help the company as it expands into other types of content and categories of education.</p><p>While it's hard to quantify exactly how large the market is for supplemental spending on education, TCG looked at another early leader in the direct-to-consumer space: Santa Clara, Calif.-based Chegg Inc. is a publicly traded company that began in the textbook rental space and now offers tutoring among other student services. </p><p>Venuti said she could certainly see SketchyMedical going the way that 2005-founded Chegg has, ultimately offering a suite of student services. <a href="https://s21.q4cdn.com/596622263/files/doc_financials/2020/q2/Chegg-Q220-Investor-Deck.pdf" target="_blank">Chegg reported 3.9 million subscribers</a> in 2019 and a current $8.7 billion market cap, but <a href="https://s21.q4cdn.com/596622263/files/doc_financials/2020/q2/Chegg-Q220-Investor-Deck.pdf" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">the company believes the total potential market opportunity for their services is 102 million students</a> in the U.S., Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom. The company has seen a 39% compound annual growth rate over the last five years, and its total revenue of $153 million is up 63% year over year for the second quarter of 2020.</p><p>TCG believes Chegg's outlook on market opportunity is similar to what SketchyMedical could expect, Venuti said. However, she added that SketchyMedical's "secret sauce" is the content the company has built, its method for teaching students and its passionate and engaged user base.</p><p>An internal analysis by TCG estimated a total addressable market of 93,000 medical students and adjacent medical specialties like dentistry and pharmacology, who are already using SketchyMedical's content for studying overlapping topics. TCG also discovered an "ever-increasing amount of global edtech unicorns — such as VIPKid, Coursera, Duoling, ByJu's, Quizlet and more — with consumer-facing supplemental tools valued in the billions.</p><p>The analysis also found that in the medical school market supplemental tools are becoming so important that "<a href="https://www.ama-assn.org/residents-students/medical-school-life/why-some-medical-students-are-cutting-class-get-ahead" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">students are skipping class</a> to instead <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2018/08/14/medical-students-skipping-class/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">study via supplemental learning tools</a>."</p><p>___</p><p><em>Do you have a story that needs to be told? My DMs are open on </em><a href="https://twitter.com/latams" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><em>Twitter @latams</em></a><em> You can also email me at tami(at)dot.la, or ask for my contact on Signal, for more secure and private communications.</em></p>
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