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Why Are Lithium Prices Falling?

David Shultz

David Shultz reports on clean technology and electric vehicles, among other industries, for dot.LA. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, Outside, Nautilus and many other publications.

Why Are Lithium Prices Falling?
Photo by Saif71.com on Unsplash

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A few weeks ago, I wrote about how if the United States wants to electrify its passenger vehicle fleet by 2050, the country will need to mine three times more lithium each year than is currently being mined globally. And that’s just for passenger vehicles. There’s long haul trucking to consider. Planes, trains, grid scale battery storage projects, bikes, scooters, and a million other applications also require the alkali metal.

With all that demand ramping up, you’d expect the price of lithium to be at an all time high. But then, you’d be wrong. In the last five months, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen 52%, from to $4,533 per ton in late November to to just $2,219 per ton today.

The perplexing decline was the subject of an article in the New York Times from earlier this week. You can and should go read it yourself, but the reporting suggests that the downward price trend might be attributable to supply coming online faster than analysts predicted due to readily available financing and government incentives. Combine that explosive supply increase with a slightly cooler-than-anticipated demand for EVs, and suddenly you’ve got a real mismatch.

The big question is, as always, what’s going to happen next?

I’m no psychic. That said, I do think it’s wise to put this price drop in perspective: The journey to battery electric vehicles is on track to take place over the next 27 years; drawing any sort of conclusion about how lithium prices are going to settle based on a five month period at the very beginning of the transition seems extremely premature.

While the free market is often pretty good at sorting out supply/demand mismatches in commodities, the world is facing a looming level of lithium demand that is almost hard to comprehend. As the New York Times article mentions, Biden Administration officials have said that the United States will need to mine 42 times more of the metal by 2050 than we are today to meet demand. Mistaking today’s short-term supply surplus as an indicator of a solved problem, seems myopic to put it lightly.

More likely then, I think, is that we’ll continue to see lags in both supply and demand over the coming years that send lithium prices up or down accordingly. This isn’t exactly my boldest prediction since it’s, you know, how markets work. But one thing is for sure: With metal prices coming back down to Earth, now is a good time to be building and buying electric cars.

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Billion-Dollar Beauty. Billion-Dollar Radios. Only in LA.

Grace Lee
Billion-Dollar Beauty. Billion-Dollar Radios. Only in LA.

🔦 Spotlight

Hello Los Angeles,

This week, LA proved it can scale in silence and shine in the spotlight, sometimes in the same breath.

Let’s start with the quiet powerhouse.

Culver City-based Silvus Technologies is being acquired by Motorola Solutions for $4.4 billion in up-front consideration, with the potential for an additional $600 million in earnout payments, bringing the total deal value to $5 billion. Silvus builds tactical mesh radios, rugged high-bandwidth systems used by militaries, emergency responders, and defense contractors in more than 40 countries. These aren’t just walkie-talkies. They are engineered to deliver secure, uninterrupted communications in places where cell service and Wi-Fi don't stand a chance. Think natural disasters, war zones, and remote terrains. The tech spun out of DARPA-funded research at UCLA, and this deal is a reminder that LA isn’t just cranking out consumer apps and AI models. We’re exporting national security infrastructure too.

But while Silvus was locking down defense contracts, another LA startup was breaking the internet.

e.l.f. Beauty Chairman and CEO Tarang Amin and Rhode Founder Hailey BieberImage Source: e.l.f. Beauty

Rhode, Hailey Bieber’s skincare brand, is being acquired by e.l.f. Beauty in a deal valued at up to $1 billion. The structure includes $600 million in cash, $200 million in stock at closing, and up to $200 million in earnout payments tied to Rhode’s performance over the next three years. Not bad for a brand that launched in June 2022 and built a cult following off just a handful of products and a crystal-clear brand identity.

Yes, it’s celebrity-founded. But Rhode didn’t just ride a name. It built a movement. The brand cut through a saturated beauty market by doing less: launching with a few standout hero products, keeping the aesthetic clean and consistent, and using community-first marketing that turned product drops into cultural events. The results speak for themselves. $100 million in net sales over the past year and a loyal fanbase that treats peptide lip treatments like limited-edition merch.

Bieber wasn’t just the face of the brand. She helped shape the strategy, led product development, and drove creative decisions from day one. Following the acquisition, she’ll continue as Chief Creative Officer and Head of Innovation, while also stepping into a new role as strategic advisor to e.l.f. Beauty. Rhode will continue to operate independently, with its headquarters remaining right here in LA.

This isn’t just a win for Rhode. It’s another clear signal that LA is where culture, commerce, and execution come together and scale fast.

Keep reading for the latest LA venture rounds, acquisitions, and fund moves making headlines this week.

🤝 Venture Deals

LA Companies

  • Bezel, a luxury watch marketplace, recently secured a $670K investment from Hyperspace Ventures as part of a broader $6.8M funding initiative. This investment aims to support Bezel's growth and enhance its platform for authenticated luxury watch trading. - learn more

        LA Venture Funds

        • Sound Ventures participated in the Series A funding round for General Counsel AI, a startup using artificial intelligence to streamline in-house legal work. The platform helps legal teams draft documents faster, stay compliant, and eliminate repetitive tasks by embedding company knowledge directly into its AI workflows. With Sound Ventures' backing, GC AI plans to scale its team and expand the platform’s capabilities to serve more enterprise legal departments. - learn more
        • Kairos Ventures participated in Vivodyne’s $40M Series A funding round, reaffirming its commitment to advancing human-relevant drug development technologies. Vivodyne, a biotech company based in Philadelphia and San Francisco, is pioneering the use of AI and robotics to grow and test thousands of lab-grown human tissues, aiming to replace traditional animal testing in drug development. This approach addresses the high failure rate of clinical trials by providing more predictive human data, potentially accelerating the development of effective therapies. The new funding will support the expansion of Vivodyne's operations, including the opening of a 23,000-square-foot fully robotic laboratory in South San Francisco, to meet the growing demand from pharmaceutical clients. - learn more
        • Fifth Wall co-led Wander’s $50M Series B funding round, joining QED Investors and others to support the company’s mission of redefining luxury vacation rentals through technology and consistency. Wander operates a vertically integrated platform that combines premium vacation homes with hotel-grade service, powered by its proprietary AI system, WanderOS. With over 1,000 properties already live and a Net Promoter Score of 85, Wander aims to scale toward 300,000 homes globally, offering a trusted and seamless experience for travelers and property owners alike. - learn more
        • Clocktower Technology Ventures and Overture VC participated in GridCARE’s $13.5M seed funding round, supporting the company's mission to address the growing power demands of AI infrastructure. GridCARE utilizes advanced AI to identify and unlock underutilized grid capacity, significantly reducing the time required to power data centers from several years to just 6–12 months. By bridging the gap between AI developers and utility providers, GridCARE aims to accelerate the deployment of AI technologies while enhancing energy resilience. - learn more
        • Clocktower Technology Ventures participated in Monarch Money’s $75M Series B funding round, reaffirming its support for the personal finance platform's mission to enhance financial wellness for households. Monarch offers tools for aggregating financial accounts, visualizing net worth, tracking budgets, and collaborating with partners or advisors. The new funding will enable Monarch to expand its team and further develop its platform to better serve its growing user base. - learn more

          LA Exits

          • TinyWins, the LA-based digital creative studio known for blending emotional storytelling with performance-driven content, has been acquired by marketing consultancy The Shipyard.Best known for its work with brands like Disney, Netflix, and Google, TinyWins will continue to operate under its own name and leadership in Los Angeles. The acquisition gives TinyWins access to deeper strategic and media resources, while The Shipyard expands its creative firepower and strengthens its presence on the West Coast. - learn more
          • Churchill Management Group has been acquired by Focus Partners Wealth, marking the firm’s first external acquisition since its January rebrand. The Los Angeles-based investment advisor manages $9.4 billion in assets and will expand Focus’s national footprint in wealth management. - learn more
          • Dolby Theatre, renowned for hosting the Academy Awards, has been acquired by Master Investment Group in partnership with Jebs Hollywood. The new ownership plans to introduce a series of events celebrating Middle Eastern culture, aiming to showcase the region's rich heritage, music, and traditions. This initiative seeks to foster community engagement and promote cultural exchange by bringing diverse artistic expressions from the Middle East to a global audience. - learn more

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                VC Giants Back LA Defense Tech Startup

                Grace Lee
                VC Giants Back LA Defense Tech Startup

                🔦 Spotlight

                Hello Los Angeles, and happy Friday!

                Memorial Day Weekend is finally here, and it seems even PCH got the memo, just in time for those coastal drives to kick off summer, traffic jams included. Speaking of navigation, El Segundo based startup CX2 has charted its own impressive course this week, securing $31 million in a Series A round led by Point72 Ventures, with participation from Andreessen Horowitz, 8VC, and Pax Ventures, to boost its mission in electronic warfare.

                Electronic warfare (EW), for those of us who aren't regulars at the Pentagon, involves the tactical use of electromagnetic energy to control the spectrum, essentially jamming or confusing enemy communications and radar systems. CX2 was founded by a diverse and experienced group: Nathan Mintz, who brings deep expertise in defense technology from previous ventures such as Epirus and Spartan; Mark Trefgarne, a software entrepreneur known for a successful acquisition by Meta; Lee Thompson, an expert RF engineer previously with SpaceX; and Porter Smith, whose practical insights stem from his background as a U.S. Army helicopter pilot and subsequent experience as an investor.

                The new funds will help CX2 scale its team and accelerate the development of advanced tools, including autonomous drones and specialized signals-intelligence systems. These innovations promise precision interference without collateral disruptions, addressing critical defense capability gaps identified by industry experts.

                With tensions escalating globally, there's big demand for next-gen defense solutions, and CX2’s technology positions them as a major player in shaping future electronic battlespaces.

                Dive deeper into the details and check out this week's roundup of LA’s venture deals and acquisitions below.

                Here's to a weekend filled with sunshine, clear roads (fingers crossed), and tech that keeps pushing boundaries!

                🤝 Venture Deals

                LA Companies

                • Axle Health, founded by former Uber execs, raised $10M in Gaa Series A round led by F-Prime Capital to expand its AI-powered logistics platform for home healthcare. The software streamlines scheduling, routing, and patient engagement, and is now used by major health systems and agencies across all 50 states. The company has seen 10x revenue growth over the past year. - learn more
                • Promise, a generative AI studio based in Venice, California, has secured a strategic investment from Google's AI Futures Fund, alongside contributions from The North Road Company, and others. This funding will support Promise's integration of advanced AI technologies into its proprietary production platform, MUSE, and facilitate collaborations with Google's DeepMind researchers to push the boundaries of AI-driven storytelling. The studio plans to commence production on its first feature-length film this year, marking a significant step in its mission to blend human creativity with cutting-edge AI tools in filmmaking. - learn more
                • Final Boss Sour, a Los Angeles-based snack brand blending gaming nostalgia with sour fruit treats, raised $4M in a Seed 2 round. The funds will go toward expanding distribution, product innovation, and creator partnerships. The company also launched a new tropical sampler box featuring real fruit flavors like mango, pineapple, and kiwi. - learn more
                • VUZ, a UAE-based immersive media platform, raised $12M in a pre-Series C round led by the International Finance Corporation with participation from CrossWork.us, among others, to fuel global expansion and enhance its AI-powered streaming experiences. The funding brings its total raised to over $35M and will support growth across the U.S., Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. VUZ, now EBITDA positive, hosts 30,000+ hours of immersive content and has exclusive deals with leagues like LaLiga and Serie A. - learn more

                    LA Venture Funds

                    • B Capital co-led Data Sutram's $9M Series A funding round, supporting the company's expansion of its AI-driven fraud detection platform into sectors like cryptocurrency, gaming, and insurance. The investment will also aid in strengthening Data Sutram's AI capabilities and facilitating its international growth into markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia. - learn more
                    • Upfront Ventures led Clair's $23.2M Series B funding round, reinforcing its commitment to the fintech startup it initially backed during the seed stage. Clair provides embedded earned wage access (EWA) solutions, allowing employees to access their earnings instantly through integrations with payroll and workforce management platforms like Gusto and TriNet. The new funding will support Clair's expansion across more than 29,000 business locations and enhance its partnerships with additional HR and payroll providers. - learn more
                    • Rebel Fund participated in Keep's recent C$108M funding round, supporting the Toronto-based fintech's mission to modernize small business banking in Canada. Keep offers an all-in-one financial platform tailored to Canadian small businesses, addressing challenges like outdated systems and limited access to credit. The funding will help Keep expand its services, which include business credit cards, expense tracking, and multi-currency accounts, to more entrepreneurs across the country. - learn more
                    • MarcyPen Capital Partners participated in SparkCharge's $30.5M funding round, supporting the expansion of its mobile, off-grid EV charging services across North America. This investment will help SparkCharge scale its Charging-as-a-Service model, enabling fleets to adopt electric vehicles without the need for permanent infrastructure. - learn more
                    • Matter Venture Partners participated in Biostate AI's $12M Series A funding round, supporting the Houston-based startup's mission to revolutionize molecular diagnostics through affordable RNA sequencing and generative AI. Biostate AI aims to build a comprehensive RNA sequencing dataset to train AI models capable of predicting disease progression and treatment responses, thereby advancing precision medicine. - learn more
                    • Prototype Capital participated in Sensmore's €6.5M funding round, supporting the German robotics startup's mission to retrofit heavy machinery with AI-driven automation. Sensmore's technology enables real-time automation of complex tasks in industries like construction and mining. The investment will help expand Sensmore's Physical AI platform, enhancing productivity and safety in industrial operations. - learn more

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                          Forget Traffic: Air Taxis Are Coming to LA28

                          Grace Lee
                          Forget Traffic: Air Taxis Are Coming to LA28

                          🔦 Spotlight

                          Hello Los Angeles,

                          The future just got a flight plan, and it includes skipping traffic for the 2028 Olympics.

                          Image Source: Archer

                          This week, Santa Clara-based Archer Aviation made headlines (and history) by being named the official air taxi provider for the LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games and Team USA. Yes, that means electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft will be soaring above the gridlocked freeways, whisking athletes, officials, and perhaps a few lucky spectators through LA’s famously congested skies.

                          This isn’t just a flashy PR stunt (although, let’s be honest, it is peak LA). It’s a strategic move to redefine how we move around the city, especially during one of the largest global events ever to hit Southern California. In partnership with the LA28 Organizing Committee, Archer plans to deploy its Midnight aircraft, an all-electric air taxi that promises ultra-quiet, zero-emission rides from point A to point OMG-I’m-not-in-traffic.

                          While Archer is headquartered in Santa Clara, it has deep ties to the LA tech ecosystem. United Airlines, one of its major partners, has previously announced plans to establish eVTOL routes between downtown and LAX. Pair that with this new Olympic milestone and we’re looking at LA as ground zero for what could become the world’s first large-scale urban air mobility network.

                          Of course, there are still regulatory hurdles, infrastructure needs, and airspace coordination issues to iron out before we can book our sky ride to the Coliseum. But make no mistake, this announcement is a moonshot moment for LA tech, mobility, and the future of Olympic-scale transportation.

                          We’ll be keeping our feet on the ground (for now), but we’ll definitely be watching the skies.

                          Catch you next week ✈️✨

                          🤝 Venture Deals

                          LA Companies

                          • Akido, a Los Angeles-based health tech company, has raised $60M in Series B funding led by Oak HC/FT to expand the reach of its AI-powered clinical tool, ScopeAI. The platform assists physicians by generating clinical questions, documenting patient responses, and drafting care plans in real time. The funding will help Akido scale its technology across its provider network and expand into new markets like New York City. - learn more
                          • Reflect Orbital, a startup developing satellite-based sunlight delivery systems, has raised $20M in a Series A round led by Lux Capital. The company plans to use the funding to expand its team, scale operations, and prepare for its first satellite launch in Spring 2026. Reflect Orbital’s technology aims to reflect sunlight from space to Earth, enabling nighttime illumination for energy, remote operations, and civil infrastructure. - learn more
                          • Rolli, an AI-powered platform designed to support fact-based journalism, has received an investment from the NYU Impact Investment Fund (NIIF). This marks NIIF's first investment in a media company, underscoring its commitment to backing ventures that enhance democratic institutions through innovation. Rolli's platform connects journalists with a diverse range of vetted experts, aiming to streamline news production and promote equitable representation in media. The funding will help Rolli expand its reach and further develop tools that empower journalists to produce accurate and impactful reporting. - learn more

                            LA Venture Funds

                            • CIV and Wonder Ventures participated in The Nuclear Company’s $46.3M Series A round to support its plan to develop large-scale nuclear reactor sites across the U.S. CIV co-founder Patrick Maloney also co-founded the company, which is taking a “design-once, build-many” approach to modernize nuclear construction. The funding will help meet rising energy demands from sectors like AI and data centers. - learn more
                            • WndrCo participated in Cartwheel's recent $10M funding round. Cartwheel is an AI-driven 3D animation startup that enables creators to generate rigged animations from text prompts and videos. The funding will support Cartwheel's efforts to simplify and democratize 3D animation production. - learn more
                            • Crosscut Ventures participated in Solestial's $17M Series A funding round, which aims to scale the company's production of radiation-hardened, self-healing silicon solar panels for space applications. Solestial plans to increase its manufacturing capacity to 1 megawatt per year, matching the combined annual output of all U.S. and EU III-V space solar companies. This investment supports the growing demand for cost-effective, high-performance power systems in the expanding space industry. - learn more
                            • Upfront Ventures participated in Tern's $13M Series A funding round, adding to its earlier $4M seed investment in the travel tech startup. Tern offers an all-in-one platform for travel advisors, streamlining itinerary building, CRM, and commission tracking. The new funding will help Tern enhance its product offerings and expand support for its growing user base. - learn more
                            • Dangerous Ventures participated in Verdi's $6.5M seed funding round, supporting the Vancouver-based agtech startup's mission to modernize farm irrigation systems through AI-powered automation. Verdi's technology retrofits existing infrastructure, enabling precise, row-level control of irrigation, which helps farmers reduce water usage and labor costs. The investment aligns with Dangerous Ventures' focus on climate resilience and sustainable food systems. - learn more
                            • Pinegrove Capital Partners participated in Saildrone's recent $60M funding round, supporting the company's expansion of its autonomous maritime surveillance technology into Europe. The investment will aid in deploying Saildrone's uncrewed surface vehicles for enhanced maritime security and defense applications across European waters. - learn more
                            • Starburst Ventures participated in a €2 million seed funding round for French defense tech startup Alta Ares, which specializes in embedded AI and MLOps solutions for military applications. Alta Ares' technologies, including the Gamma platform for real-time video analysis and the Ulixes platform for managing operational data lifecycles, operate autonomously without the need for internet or cloud connectivity. This funding will support the industrialization of these solutions and expand their deployment across European armed forces and NATO allies. - learn more
                            • Nomad Ventures participated in Stackpack’s recent $6.3M seed funding round, supporting the company's mission to streamline vendor management for modern businesses. Stackpack offers an AI-driven platform that provides finance and IT teams with a centralized system to oversee third-party vendors, manage renewals, and mitigate compliance risks. The investment will enable Stackpack to expand its operations, enhance its platform, and introduce new features like the "Requests & Approvals" tool, aimed at simplifying vendor onboarding and procurement processes. - learn more
                            • Tachyon Ventures participated in Stylus Medicine's $85M Series A funding round, supporting the biotech company's development of in vivo genetic medicines. Stylus aims to simplify gene editing by enabling precise, durable CAR-T therapies delivered directly inside the body, potentially transforming treatment for various diseases. - learn more
                            • Up.Partners led a $28M Series A funding round for WakeCap, a construction tech startup that uses sensor-powered platforms to deliver real-time workforce visibility and site intelligence. WakeCap’s system tracks labor hours, safety, and productivity across large-scale projects, with over 150 million labor hours already monitored. The new funding will help the company expand globally, enhance product features, and grow its engineering and customer success teams. - learn more


                              LA Exits

                              • MediaPlatform, a leading provider of enterprise video solutions, has been acquired by Brandlive, a company renowned for bringing the magic of television to business communications. This strategic acquisition aims to enhance Brandlive's capabilities in delivering high-scale, reliable CEO town halls and global corporate broadcasts. By integrating MediaPlatform's robust infrastructure with Brandlive's creative video tools and production services, the combined entity seeks to offer more engaging and authentic internal content experiences for enterprise clients. - learn more
                              • RHQ Creative, a studio renowned for its competitive Fortnite training maps, has been acquired by JOGO, the game development company founded by popular creator Typical Gamer (Andre Rebelo). This acquisition aims to bolster JOGO's expansion into the competitive gaming arena by integrating RHQ's expertise in skill-building and training map design. RHQ Creative, co-founded by Fortnite pro Quinn Gannon (RichHomieQuinn) and Sean Lugo, has achieved over 20 million map visits and 200 million hours of playtime. The deal includes full ownership of RHQ's map catalog and the addition of its team to JOGO, enhancing the company's capabilities in developing high-quality, competitive gaming experiences. - learn more

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