TrueCar Could be Acquired in the Next Month, Says Analyst
Ben Bergman is the newsroom's senior reporter, covering venture capital. Previously he was a senior business reporter and host at KPCC, a senior producer at Gimlet Media, a producer at NPR's Morning Edition, and produced two investigative documentaries for KCET. He has been a frequent on-air contributor to business coverage on NPR and Marketplace and has written for The New York Times and Columbia Journalism Review. Ben was a 2017-2018 Knight-Bagehot Fellow in Economic and Business Journalism at Columbia Business School. In his free time, he enjoys skiing, playing poker, and cheering on The Seattle Seahawks. Follow him on Twitter.
The struggling Santa Monica-based TrueCar, which operates the nation's fourth largest online automotive marketplace, is ripe for an acquisition as soon as the end of next month, according to a new research note from the global financial services firm BTIG.
"Based on our inbound call volume, we believe many investors are wondering if TRUE is now an acquisition target," wrote analyst Marvin Fong.
BTIG says the answer is a strong maybe, given that TrueCar has several attributes of an appealing takeover target, including an empty CEO seat, a small group of big shareholders who own a considerable number of shares, and an attractive set of data on shoppers that would be useful to bigger companies.
BTIG thinks a takeover could happen in the next few weeks because TrueCar's board has said it expects to name a permanent CEO by March 31, which the bank believes would be seen as a sign the company is not for sale. Even if a deal does not happen soon, BTIG puts the odds at better than 50/50 that TrueCar is not a standalone company within the next 36-48 months.
"We see the merits of this idea as the overall listings space is stagnant and cost synergies could be meaningful, making consolidation a potentially value accretive route," Fong wrote.
TrueCar has been on a wild ride since serial entrepreneur Scott Painter founded the company in 2004.
It quickly became one of L.A.'s hottest startups after it appeared to be able to disrupt the half-century-plus relationship between consumers and auto dealerships. But dealerships were not about to go quietly, and in 2012, thousands of dealers exited the TrueCar network amidst complaints about bidding wars that meant they were losing money on transactions.
Still, the company went public two years later and shares have gone from a high of $25.00 to under $3 a share this week.
Michael Darrow has served as TrueCar's interim President and CEO since Chip Perry stepped down in June. Perry had been in the post since the end of 2015, when Painter departed.
In 2018, changes to Google's search algorithm caused a steep decline in TrueCar's website traffic. Just as the company was recovering from that and improving its SEO, USAA recently announced it would end its lucrative partnership, which brought in 29% of TrueCar's unit sales, in October.
USAA remains TrueCar's fourth-largest shareholder with about 9 million shares, which represents 8.5% of the stock.
- TrueCar lays off 40 percent of staf - dot.LA ›
- George Floyd Protests: L.A.'s Tech Community Reacts - dot.LA ›
Subscribe to our newsletter to catch every headline.
Every year has defining moments, but no one could have predicted the world changing and paradigm shifting developments that have taken place over the course of the past year. They include combatting COVID-19, working from home, waves of social unrest, emerging technologies and more.
Join us Wednesday, December 16th at 11:00 a.m. PT for the closing dot.LA Strategy Session of the year as we reflect on L.A.'s emerging tech trends, challenges and predictions for 2021.
Upfront Managing Partner Mark Suster and dot.LA Senior Finance Reporter Ben Bergman will kick off the event with a one on one conversation. More speakers to be announced.
Register here - space is limited!
Mark Suster, Managing Partner at Upfront
Mark Suster, Managing Partner at Upfront
<p><br>Mark Suster has been a managing partner at Upfront since 2007, where has led notable investments in companies including Bird, Invoca, Density, Nanit, and Maker Studios (acquired by Disney). He previously was the founder & CEO of two successful enterprise software companies, the most recent of which was sold to Salesforce.com, where Mark became VP of products. Prior to being a founder, Mark was a software developer at Accenture while living and worked in Europe, Japan and the U.S. Mark is a graduate of UCSD and has an MBA from the University of Chicago.</p>Ben Bergman, dot.LA Senior Reporter
Ben Bergman, dot.LA Senior Reporter
<p>Ben Bergman is the newsroom's senior finance reporter. Previously he was a senior reporter/host at KPCC, a producer at Gimlet Media and NPR and produced two investigative documentaries for KCET. He has been a frequent on-air contributor to NPR and Marketplace and has written for The New York Times. Bergman was a 2017-2018 Knight-Bagehot Fellow in Economic and Business Journalism at Columbia Business School. He enjoys skiing, playing poker and cheering on The Seattle Seahawks.</p>- Investing in Uncertain Times: How VCs and COVID-19 - dot.LA ›
- Mark Suster of Upfront Ventures on VC's Primary Job - dot.LA ›
- Why NYC and SF Tech Workers are Moving to LA - dot.LA ›
- Los Angeles' Tech and Startup Scene is Growing. - dot.LA ›
How Influencers Became Key to Big Brands During the Pandemic — and Why They'll Continue to Grow
- Influencer marketing has surged during the pandemic as more consumers have moved online and brands have been forced to adapt to new challenges.
- The rise of ecommerce and social media continues to usher in a wave of less formal and potentially cheaper marketing from online icons directly connected to audiences that brands can target.
- Marketers expect the trend to continue, which could lead to more unexpected brand partnerships, like a KFC line of Crocs or Forever 21's Cheetos apparel.
Mix together a cup of cold brew, three pumps of caramel syrup, a splash of whole milk and a generous portion of TikTok and you've got yourself "The Charli" – Dunkin' Donuts' new menu item promoted in partnership with Charli D'Amelio, a superstar social media influencer and the drink's namesake.
Influencer marketing campaigns are not new, but the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated their appeal as companies have been forced to ramp up their online presence. Marketers expect that to continue, due to a combination of changing consumer behavior, a growing sophistication of data and analytics, and tighter ad budgets.
As these forces take shape, subscription streaming services expand and cable's decline continues, could it spell the end of TV commercials?
Influence in the Wake of Ecommerce
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="07f23e0bad020e13c4a64c5c6a12cd87"><iframe lazy-loadable="true" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VY-vJMb-Dr0?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>The pandemic has also caused ecommerce to <a href="https://www.smartinsights.com/digital-marketing-strategy/online-retail-sales-growth/" target="_blank">skyrocket</a> and led people to <a href="https://www.emarketer.com/content/how-coronavirus-changing-us-social-media-usage" target="_blank">spend more time on social media</a>, both of which have increased the supply of potential customers for brands to target with influencers.</p><p>"Consumers crave real-life stories and authenticity, and influencers are able to highlight brands in a way that feels real and accessible. We are seeing that during the pandemic, this need is further heightened as more consumers are spending more time on social platforms," Grubhub's director of content and social Mandy Cudahy told dot.LA.</p><p>The growing sophistication of data and analytics on the effectiveness of influencer marketing has also helped companies create more targeted ad campaigns likely to reach spenders. For example, tools are improving to help brands find the right influencer, track their ability to drive purchases, and even <a href="https://dot.la/social-native-2647873306.html" target="_self">predict how well an influencer campaign will do</a>.</p><p>"There's been a much bigger push around nailing down the attribution and ROI," said Kevin Gould, co-founder of three L.A.-based ecommerce brands that rely heavily on influencer marketing and collectively earn over $60 million in annual revenue.</p><p>That push, in turn, is helping to nudge brands that have historically shied away from influencer marketing. Part of what has held them back is the fact that the data from traditional channels like television and radio advertising is far more robust than what's available in the influencer space, if only because it is relatively new.</p><p>"You're going up against hard sets of data since like the birth of Macy's, so it didn't become a priority," said Jennifer Piña, MagicLinks' director of brand partnerships. "Now it's being forced to become a priority."</p><p>As a result, bigger, more traditional brands are moving into what has until now been a channel primarily used by smaller, direct-to-consumer brands. Tito's Vodka, for instance, ran its first influencer campaign in August with Brooklyn-based <a href="https://www.firsttubemedia.com/" target="_blank">First Tube Media</a>. Prior to the campaign, "Tito's had never spent a dollar in influencer marketing," First Tube CEO Andrew Beranbom told dot.LA. <a href="https://www.superdry.com/us/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Superdry</a>, a publicly-traded British clothing company founded in 1985, is partnering with MagicLinks to launch its first large influencer campaign in advance of the holiday season.</p>How Influencers Change What We Buy, and What They Make
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEucmJsLm1zL2ltYWdlP3U9JTJGaXMlMkZpbWFnZSUyRkNyb2NzJTJGMDIxMTIwLUtGQy1BbmdsZWQzJTNGJTI0bWt0LWpwZy05MCUyNCZobz1odHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRmltYWdlcy5jcm9jcy5jb20mcz0xMDE4Jmg9YzYzNDVmZTk1OTk3ZjI0NDNkNDAzMzg1YTVhY2VlNGVjOWU1ZTUwMWNlOThhNzg4MjcxMTIxYjJmODBhOWY0YiZzaXplPTk4MHgmYz0yOTMxOTEwMjQ3IiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxODk3OTA5OH0.gx73p3jbM6G95Y4iFZyHzIHpJiuUWfJAr1-reUHd1V8/img.jpg" id="67c4c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e5d31832c6a8ebce26e0222146f673e6" alt="KFC crocs" />KFC Crocs, an unholy creation of influencer marketing.
<p>Influencer marketing has also given rise to new partnerships between brands that arguably have nothing to do with each other, with influencers as the linchpin linking them together. Examples include <a href="https://www.crocs.com/KFC.html" target="_blank">a KFC line of Crocs</a>, e.l.f. Cosmetics' Chipotle <a href="https://nrf.com/blog/chipotle-inspires-new-makeup-kit-elf-cosmetics" target="_blank">burrito-inspired handbag and makeup kit</a>, and Forever 21's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/forever-21-cheetos-clothing-collaboration-2019-6" target="_blank">Cheetos apparel line</a>.</p><p>"It's this idea of like, a brand is a brand," said Piña. "What they actually sell or what people purchase from them is oftentimes irrelevant. It's more about the packaging and the moment and the feel and that's what social media does: it creates excitement for something that is not necessarily exciting. Like Crocs: Crocs is like your dad's brand. But it can immediately become cool, at the drop of a pin, once you get the right influencers involved."</p><p>Even as data attribution improves and consumers spend more time online in the land of influencers, one key downside to influencer marketing remains: limited control. A company can manage every element of a commercial shoot or Facebook ad, but using an unscripted TikTok or Instagram influencer requires letting go.</p><p>"Brands in some categories historically have been super fearful of letting influencers tell their story because it is so important to the sanctity of the brand to keep the messaging really succinct and in line with the brand guidelines," Piña said.</p><p>Yet that informality is part of the appeal of influencer marketing.</p><p>"Brands get stuck on needing to be perfect or scripted, whereas influencers talk to you like they're your next-door neighbor," said Brian Meert, chief executive of L.A.-based <a href="https://www.advertisemint.com/" target="_blank">AdvertiseMint</a>, a digital advertising agency. "It's very organic; it doesn't feel like a pushy ask. I think those kinds of elements have enabled us to grow sales for our clients using more of these influencer- and consumer-generated type videos."</p><p>Piña noted that while Ralph Lauren, a premium fashion retailer, has been wary of using influencers because of "brand safety," the company recently approached MagicLinks to build out a year-long TikTok strategy. Even as the social video giant's fight with the White House <a href="https://dot.la/celebrity-economy-2647441974.html" target="_self">threatened to upend the living of its influencers</a>, TikTok's hold on the traditionally elusive younger demographic – along with other user-generated video platforms like Instagram, YouTube, Twitch <a href="https://dot.la/snap-spotlight-2649022645.html" target="_blank">and Snap</a> – has become increasingly hard for companies to ignore.</p><p>"Any brand that wants to connect with Gen Z, and sell whatever product or service they have, has to engage (with these platforms)," said Glenn Ginsburg, SVP of global partnerships at influencer marketing agency <a href="https://www.qyoumedia.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The QYOU</a>. "Moving forward I think we'll see brands start to build deeper relationships with influencers."</p><p>Not every brand is poised to get the same value from an influencer campaign, however. An influencer is unlikely to save the day for a travel and tourism company ravaged by the pandemic, for instance. And it remains a challenge to reliably execute an influencer campaign, notwithstanding the emergence of new tools to do so.</p><p>"A lot still depends on relationships, conversations and trial and error," said Darren Litt, chairman and co-founder of L.A.-based talent marketplace <a href="http://www.marketerhire.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">MarketerHire</a>. "A successful influencer campaign requires a detailed understanding of an influencer's brand, and that's hard to do with tech and AI alone."</p><p>Achieving the cost-efficiency of a well-targeted campaign also remains most viable for companies that are best positioned to drive online purchases. Using Kim Kardashian to sell clothing that flatters one's figure, for example, is more likely to drive trackable sales than, say, pushing Pepsi.</p><p>"For mass-market products looking to reach a broad audience, TV advertising remains effective because you get the upside of wide reach with the downside of limited targeting," said Litt. That's especially true for products that people don't typically purchase online.</p><p>But much like a song that goes viral on TikTok can <a href="https://musically.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Report-429-4692555.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drive a listening bump on streaming platforms</a> like Spotify, so, too, it appears, can an influencer campaign drive offline purchases.</p><p>After all, Dunkin' Donuts <a href="https://www.tmz.com/2020/09/23/charli-damelio-dunkin-donuts-drink-cold-brew-sales-boost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">saw sales surge</a> following its D'Amelio partnership, even though the girl with over 100 million TikTok followers <a href="https://www.elitedaily.com/p/the-reason-charli-damelio-hasnt-ordered-her-dunkin-drink-makes-sense-38410234" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has reportedly never ordered "The Charli" herself</a>.</p><p>--- </p><p><em>Sam Blake primarily covers media and entertainment for dot.LA. Find him on Twitter @hisamblake and email him at samblake@dot.LA.</em><br></p>- 'The Interchange' Launches to Connect L.A. Startups to Potential ... ›
- TikTok, Influencer Panic and the Celebrity Economy - dot.LA ›
