The Near Miss Apocalypse: Predictions for Post SVB Collapse

Spencer Rascoff

Spencer Rascoff serves as executive chairman of dot.LA. He is an entrepreneur and company leader who co-founded Zillow, Hotwire, dot.LA, Pacaso and Supernova, and who served as Zillow's CEO for a decade. During Spencer's time as CEO, Zillow won dozens of "best places to work" awards as it grew to over 4,500 employees, $3 billion in revenue, and $10 billion in market capitalization. Prior to Zillow, Spencer co-founded and was VP Corporate Development of Hotwire, which was sold to Expedia for $685 million in 2003. Through his startup studio and venture capital firm, 75 & Sunny, Spencer is an active angel investor in over 100 companies and is incubating several more.

The Near Miss Apocalypse: Predictions for Post SVB Collapse
Evan Xie

The historic Silicon Valley Bank collapse dominated headlines recently, and the tech and financial communities have only just started processing the aftermath. The 48-hour breakdown was both historic and a few inches away from economically catastrophic, and thanks to the swift moves of the FDIC, complete disaster was avoided.

But it’s still been disruptive. SVB was the banking partner for nearly half of U.S. venture-backed technology and healthcare companies that listed on stock markets in 2022, making it one of the biggest lenders for early-stage startups. The aftershocks of SVB’s breakdown spread just as far and fast as the main event: the close of Signature Bank just two days later, major market volatility, other banking crises at Credit Suisse, tech industry troubles, and much more.

In the days since, things have settled slightly, and the world’s fingers are crossed that depositors are comforted enough and confident enough to avoid another bank run. It’s good news, but we aren’t out of the woods yet. Now that we know the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history could be looming around any corner, how does that change the ways startups do business?

Level, Set, Go

Before we get into what could happen, it’s smart to level-set about how we got here. (And for an introductory primer, this short podcast can help.)

  • The government 100% did the right thing by assuring depositors that they will be made whole. The FDIC swooped in, steadied the ship, and made sure people had the money they needed when they needed it.
  • Some have called this a ‘bailout', but it’s not for two reasons. 1) SVB shareholders and creditors will be wiped out and 2) taxpayer money is not being used to do any bailing.
  • Remember: depositors are not creditors. When companies and people put money into their accounts at SVB, they had every reason to expect that it would be there when they needed to withdraw it. They weren’t loaning the money to SVB (as a creditor would), they were depositing money into their own account at SVB for safekeeping.
  • People who say “depositors took a risk by having more than the FDIC insured $250K limit” are, ahem, a bit misguided. (I’m being polite). The truth is that $250K is not that much money for a company, especially of the size and scale of some of SVB's major customers.

Here’s where I think we should go from here.

The Short Term

While SVB’s failure didn’t launch us over the precipice, many people are rightfully feeling very nervous being this close to the edge.

Looking out to the next few weeks, I predict we’ll see venture funding slow way down. It’s been chilly out there recently, but it’s going to be ice cold, piggybacking on the already struggling tech landscape. Writing new checks will take a backseat to checking in on existing investments. VCs will need to assess where their cash is and where their portfolio companies stand, and likewise startups are going to have to start thinking hard about what it means to be lean and extend runway. Hopefully this only lasts a few weeks and the wheels of the machine start turning again before summer.

If there is a positive take on the SVB wreckage, it’s that the Fed will likely slow down the rate of increases. I’d predict a 25, maybe even 0, basis-point increase next week, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a rate cut later this year.

Whither venture debt?

Prior to SVB’s failure, it was very common for a startup to have enough cash at SVB for one year of runway, plus a venture debt line for an additional another year. SVB profited from this by charging interest plus warrants and requiring banking exclusivity. It was part and parcel of how they did business, and since they’ve transitioned from success story to cautionary tale, expect to see new regulations prohibiting banks from requiring customer exclusivity in exchange for additional services.

In the immediate term, companies who had venture debt lines with SVB are trying to decide whether to put their cash back in SVB in order to access that venture debt. The whole situation is surreal, since just a few days ago these same companies were scrambling to pull their money out of SVB, and now they are considering returning. There are conflicting reports, but it appears that SVB is allowing these companies to keep a second banking relationship with another bank (so no more exclusivity), but at least half of their cash must be with SVB.

For startups choosing not to access that venture debt line, now trying to figure out how to operate without venture debt (aka less hiring, less spending, less growth), they’re in for challenging times ahead. To fill that funding gap, maybe we’ll see more private lenders step in and provide venture debt as a product. If that is the case, I suspect terms will be tougher and many VCs will recommend against it for their companies.

Another prediction: audit committees of boards will come into play much earlier than they often do now. Given the ever larger seed and Series A/B rounds, it wasn’t uncommon to see startups that had raised $100M+ and had 200+ employees before an audit committee was formed. I suspect these will now be formed upfront and have a much bigger role to play in early stages.

Silver Lining

The good news: the world isn’t ending and won’t in the near future (at least, not because of this). Yes, things will be different and it will take some time to settle into a post-SVB startup environment, but with change comes adaptation. And with adaptation comes innovation, which is what startups are all about.

https://twitter.com/spencerrascoff
https://www.linkedin.com/in/spencerrascoff/
admin@dot.la
Standing Together Through the Flames

🔦 Spotlight

To our Los Angeles family,

This week’s wildfires have brought immense pain and hardship to our beloved city. Many of our friends, neighbors, and colleagues have faced evacuations, power outages, and the devastating loss of homes and livelihoods. Our hearts go out to everyone affected by this tragedy.

At dot.LA, we want to express our deepest sympathy to those suffering in this moment. We see your resilience and stand with you during this challenging time. This community has always been defined by its strength and compassion, and now is the time to come together in support.

If You or Someone You Know Has Been Impacted, Resources Are Available:

Evacuation Shelters:

  • Calvary Community Church: 5495 Via Rocas, Westlake Village, CA 91362
  • Ritchie Valens Recreation Center: 10736 Laurel Canyon Blvd., Pacoima, CA 91331
  • Pan Pacific Recreational Center: 7600 Beverly Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90036
  • Westwood Recreation Center: 1350 Sepulveda Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90025
  • Pasadena Civic Auditorium: 300 East Green Street, Pasadena, CA 91101
  • Pomona Fairplex: 1101 W McKinley Ave, Pomona, CA 91768
  • Stoner Recreation Center: 1835 Stoner Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90025

Animal Shelters:

Small Animals:

  • Agoura Animal Care Center: 29525 Agoura Rd, Agoura Hills, CA 91301
  • Baldwin Park Animal Care Center: 4275 Elton St, Baldwin Park, CA 91706
  • Carson Animal Care Center: 216 W Victoria St, Gardena, CA 90248
  • Downey Animal Care Center: 11258 Garfield Ave, Downey, CA 90242
  • Lancaster Animal Care Center: 5210 W Ave I, Lancaster, CA 93536
  • Palmdale Animal Care Center: 38550 Sierra Hwy, Palmdale, CA 93550

Large Animals:

  • Pomona Fairplex: 1101 W McKinley Ave, Pomona
  • Industry Hills Expo: 16200 Temple Ave, City of Industry, CA 91744
  • Antelope Valley Fair: 2551 W Avenue H, Lancaster, CA 93536
  • Los Angeles Equestrian Center: 480 W Riverside Dr, Burbank, CA 91506
  • Pierce College Equestrian Center: 7100 El Rancho Dr, Woodland Hills, CA 91371

Disaster Relief Information:

  • LA County Assessor: Information for property owners and FAQs about disaster relief.

Mental Health Support:

  • Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health: Crisis counseling and support for those affected. Access services through their website or call their hotline at (800) 854-7771.

Temporary Housing Support:

  • Airbnb: In partnership with 211 LA, offering free temporary housing for displaced residents. Spaces are limited; complete the form to be notified of availability.

Transportation Support:

  • Uber: Use promo code WILDFIRE25 for 2 free rides up to $40 each to/from active shelters.
  • Lyft: Code CAFIRERELIEF25 offers 2 rides up to $25 each for up to 500 riders, valid until 1/15.
  • Metro: Fare collection is suspended systemwide.

Staying Informed:

  • Watch Duty App: Provides real-time wildfire tracking, evacuation warnings, and updates.
  • Los Angeles Fire Department Alerts: Visit their website for the latest information on fire status and safety guidelines.

Safety Precautions:

  • Ready, Set, Go!: Personal Wildfire Action Plan by the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

To those in our community who are volunteering, donating, or offering aid in any form—thank you. Your efforts embody the spirit of LA: strong, compassionate, and unstoppable.

At dot.LA, we’re committed to amplifying stories of resilience and support. If you’ve seen inspiring acts of kindness or have resources to share, please let us know. Together, we can shine a light on the incredible ways this community is stepping up during these trying times.

In the days ahead, let’s hold tight to the bonds that unite us and remember that we are stronger together. The fires may scar the land, but they cannot dim the collective spirit of Los Angeles.

We’re here for you, and we’re with you.

    Download the dot.LA App

    A Strong Finish to 2024 for LA Tech: Crosscut Ventures Leads the Way

    🔦 Spotlight

    Happy Friday LA!

    As we close the book on 2024, Los Angeles has had a remarkable year in tech and venture capital. From groundbreaking funding rounds to industry-defining innovations, the city’s tech ecosystem has showcased its ability to adapt and thrive. Among the year’s final highlights was the announcement that Crosscut Ventures, one of LA’s premier early-stage venture capital firms, has added Jon Ylvisaker as its newest Partner.

    Crosscut Ventures’ Bold New Direction

    Announced in late December, Jon Ylvisaker’s appointment reflects Crosscut Ventures’ commitment to advancing its focus on the energy transition. Ylvisaker brings decades of experience in driving investments in energy technologies and digital infrastructure. As the founding partner and managing director of Yield Capital Partners, he led investments in startups and established companies shaping the future of sustainability. At Wolfacre Global Management, a Tiger Management hedge fund, he further honed his expertise in supporting impactful climate-focused solutions.

    Brian Garrett, Managing Director and Co-Founder of Crosscut Ventures, said, “Jon's extensive experience in climate and digital infrastructure investments, coupled with his impressive track record of bringing groundbreaking technologies to market, makes him the ideal partner to help lead our focus.”

    Since its founding in 2008, Crosscut has played a key role in shaping LA’s tech landscape. Ylvisaker’s addition reinforces the firm’s commitment to addressing global challenges like energy transition and sustainability, further solidifying its leadership in venture capital innovation.

    What’s Next for LA Tech in 2025

    The momentum from 2024 has set the stage for an even bigger year ahead. Entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators in LA are poised to take on new challenges and create meaningful change across industries.

    As we step into 2025, we want to thank everyone who helped make 2024 such a standout year. Here’s to another year of progress, innovation, and success. From all of us at dot.LA, Happy New Year!

    🤝 Venture Deals

    LA Companies

    • First Resonance, a company specializing in digital manufacturing software through its ION Factory OS, has raised a $20M funding round led by Third Prime with participation from Blue Bear Capital and others. This brings its total funding to $36M and will be used to accelerate product development, grow its customer base, and enhance support for advanced manufacturing sectors like aerospace, robotics, and clean energy. - learn more
    LA Venture Funds
    • Finality Capital Partners led a $17M Seed funding round for ChainOpera AI, a California-based company developing blockchain networks for AI-powered agents and applications, to accelerate product development, expand its team and enhance its blockchain and AI integration capabilities. - learn more

    LA Exits

    • Thirteen Lune, an inclusive beauty e-commerce platform, has been acquired by SNR Capital, marking a significant milestone in the platform's mission to amplify underrepresented beauty brands while fueling its next stage of growth. - learn more
    • Ergobaby, a leading brand in juvenile products known for its high-quality baby carriers, has been acquired by Highlander Partners. The acquisition aims to bolster Ergobaby’s growth, expand its product offerings, and strengthen its position in the parenting solutions market. - learn more

    Download the dot.LA App

    Salt AI’s $3M Bet, Snapchat’s Creator Cash, Rivian’s EV Tech, and ŌURA’s $200M Win

    🔦 Spotlight

    Happy Friday, LA - let’s dive right in to this week’s highlights:

    Salt AI, a forward-thinking AI startup based in Los Angeles, has secured a $3 million seed funding round led by Morpheus Ventures with participation from Struck Capital, among others, to tackle the complexity of managing workflows.Salt AI's blog details how its platform centralizes tools like CRM systems, project management software, and data trackers into one interface, eliminating inefficiencies and freeing up teams to focus on meaningful work. With new funding in hand, Salt plans to scale its platform and expand its reach, a move that underscores how AI can solve everyday business challenges.

    Image Source: Salt AI - Aber Whitcomb

    While Salt AI focuses on the workplace, Snapchat is doubling down on creators, with its latest updates introducing revenue-sharing opportunities and direct monetization features. The company’snewsroom update outlines how enhanced analytics will help creators better understand their audiences and sustain their work. The platform's latest updates introduce revenue-sharing opportunities and direct monetization features, along with analytics that give creators deeper insights into their audience. By making it easier for creators to grow and sustain their work, Snapchat positions itself as a key player in the creator economy, offering features that rival platforms like YouTube and TikTok.

    Image Source: Snap

    On the roads, Rivian is redefining what it means to drive an electric vehicle. The company’s latest software update includes advanced route planning, energy management tools, and customization options that make every trip more intuitive and efficient. Additionally, Rivian has introduced new entertainment features, including Google Cast, YouTube, and SiriusXM, as featured in Rivian’ssoftware spotlight, enhancing the in-cabin experience for drivers and passengers alike. This isn’t just about convenience; Rivian is showing how thoughtful software design can elevate the entire EV experience, blending practicality with sophistication.

    Image Source: Rivian

    ŌURA is making headlines with a fresh $200 million Series D funding round, with participation from Fidelity Management & Research Company and Dexcom, which now values the company at $2.55 billion. This investment, as reported byBusiness Wire, highlights the growing demand for wearable health technology and positions ŌURA as a leader in the space. With its sleek design and emphasis on actionable health insights, the funding will enable ŌURA to expand its reach and further integrate wearables into daily health management, strengthening its position in the competitive health tech market. With this funding, ŌURA aims to reach more users and expand its capabilities, further embedding wearables into daily health management.

    Image Source: ŌURA

    Stay tuned as Salt AI, Snapchat, Rivian, and ŌURA continue to evolve, offering us new ways to work, connect, and live better.

    🤝 Venture Deals

      LA Venture Funds
        • Undeterred Capital participated in a $7M Seed funding round for Portal, a Watertown, Mass.-based biotech company specializing in advanced intracellular delivery technology to drive innovations in biological research and cellular therapeutics. - learn more
        • Vamos Ventures participated in a $7.9M Series A funding round for Culina Health, a Hoboken, NJ-based company that provides personalized, science-based virtual nutrition care by connecting patients with registered dietitians, with plans to use the funds to expand its offerings for dietitians and patients, implement AI-driven tools to enhance care efficiency, and strengthen its leadership team through key hires. - learn more
        • Humans Ventures participated in a $3.8M Seed funding round for Hamming.ai, a San Francisco-based company specializing in automated tools for testing and optimizing voice agents, with plans to expand its platform, enhance reliability and perform, and accelerate product development. - learn more
        • Fifth Wall led, with participation from Starshot Capital and others, in a $9.5M Series A funding round for Mojave, a Sunnyvale, CA-based company developing energy-efficient commercial air conditioning technology. The funds will be used to accelerate the adoption of its innovative systems and reduce energy consumption in the cooling industry. - learn more
        • ReMY Investors participated in a $17M Series B funding round for Scripta Insights, a company that leverages data analytics to help employers and healthy plans reduce prescription drug costs, with the funds aimed at expanding its platform and scaling operations. - learn more
        • Mantis VC participated in a $16.5M funding round for Nuon, a company specializing in Bring Your Own Cloud (BYOC) solutions that streamline AI, data, and infrastructure software deployment. The funds will support product development, readiness for general availability in 2025, and efforts to expand customer acquisition. - learn more
        • B Capital participated in a $102M Series C funding round for Precision, a company developing minimally invasive brain-computer interfaces to treat neurological disorders, with plans to use the funds to expand its team, advance clinical research, and refine its AI-powered brain implant for helping users with severe paralysis operate digital devices using their thoughts. - learn more
        • The Games Fund led a $3M Seed funding round for Dark Passenger, a Poland-based game studio founded by veterans of The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077, to create an unannounced, innovative, first-person multiplayer PvPvE stealth-action game set in a distinctive universe inspired by feudal Japan and martial arts cinema. - learn more

            LA Exits

            • Calliope Networks, a generative AI company providing licensed media content like movies, TV shows, and news, has been acquired by Protege to strengthen its platform’s capabilities in advancing AI development. - learn more

                Download the dot.LA App

                RELATEDEDITOR'S PICKS
                Trending