⛈ Sensible: The White Knight of Weather

Wil Chockley
WIl Chockley is a partner at 75 & Sunny, where he evaluates potential investment opportunities across sectors and works with founders to build their strategy and execute on their vision.
⛈ Sensible: The White Knight of Weather
https://www.sensibleweather.com/

Picture this: you’ve saved up for months for your dream beach vacation. You’ve cut out restaurant dinners, morning coffees, and those concert tickets you really wanted. You bought your flights and made your hotel reservation. You finally step off the plane in your tropical paradise, only to see that the weather forecast has changed while you were in flight. It’s now supposed to rain for the next 3 days straight…

Source: Peter Cade, The Times of London

Every year, this happens to thousands if not millions of travelers, and, until recently, there was nothing you could do except grit your teeth and “enjoy” sitting in your hotel room reading your mystery novel while your hard earned money evaporates.

Nick Cavanaugh has made it his life’s mission to change that. His company, Sensible, offers the world’s first “Weather Guarantee.” Unfortunately, Sensible can’t literally guarantee the weather will be perfect for your next vacation, but they can insure your trip, such that you get paid a refund if the weather ruins your getaway. Very soon, if it rains on your beach vacation, you can breathe easy because the money you worked so hard to save will go right back into your bank account, and you get a free or discounted vacation to boot.

⛈️ Pre-Sensible

The Sensible story starts in one of the most notoriously rainy places in America: Seattle. Nick Cavanaugh was an outdoorsy kid who loved to ski. Fortunately for him, the Pacific Northwest is full of beautiful ski mountains, but unfortunately for him, the temperatures at many of these mountains hover right around freezing, so rainy skiing was just a fact of life for Nick. Year after year, Nick’s ski trips got rained out, or he skied and got rained on.

Eventually Nick moved out of Seattle to attend the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, where he studied Engineering, with a minor in Environmental Science. While a student at Penn, he came back to the west coast to intern at the world-renowned UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography where he found the perfect marriage of his passions for math and the outdoors. He was hooked.

After graduation in 2010, Nick returned to the Scripps Institute and four years later completed his masters and PhD in Atmospheric Dynamics and Physics. Nick then spent another two years as a postdoctoral fellow at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (named for Ernest Lawrence, inventor of the cyclotron and J. Robert Oppenheimer’s frenemy in the movie). After 10 years in academia with a hyper-specialized degree and set of skills, Nick had a couple options - he could remain in academia and research, he could work in catastrophe insurance, or he could explore an emerging niche segment of Wall Street, weather-focused hedge funds.

Given Nick hadn’t really made money in his adult life, the hedge fund angle seemed pretty interesting, and he moved to New York to join a fund called Cumulus. At Cumulus, he was focused on predicting weather patterns and inferring their effect on energy and commodity prices. During Nick’s time at Cumulus, the scrappy little fund was acquired by mega-fund Citadel, and Nick looked for the exits.

After leaving Citadel, Nick moved to Los Angeles to get back to the sunny weather, surfing, and outdoorsy culture of Southern California while he thought of what to do next. As he was brainstorming, his mind kept coming back to those rainy childhood ski trips. He was one of probably 25 people in the world with deep experience in both advanced weather prediction and complex financial products, so he decided that he just might be the right person to solve his childhood problem.

☀️ Sensible

To make this happen, Nick needed some initial funding. In 2021, he connected with local LA VCs Dustin Rosen from Wonder Ventures and Josh Diamond from Walkabout Ventures who came together to lead Sensible’s Seed Round and get the business off the ground.

Since then, Nick and team have been building the fastest and most accurate local weather prediction engine in the world. Today, Sensible is constantly ingesting hundreds of terabytes of weather data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The craziest aspect of Sensible’s product is not that they are able to ingest the data, but rather that they are able to generate quotes based on a completely personalized, local prediction in less than half a second. Not only can they spit out an individual quote in half a second, but they can spit out more than 60,000 quotes per second across their platform.

So how do you get one of these Sensible Weather Guarantees?

Sensible’s go-to-market strategy thus far has been B2B2C, where the team partners with end merchants (e.g., ski resort Mt. Baldy) as well as infrastructure providers (e.g., ticketing provider Catalate). As a consumer, you find Sensible in the checkout flow of your booking experience, similar to how you find travel insurance in your airline ticket checkout.

For example, when I went to book through Sensible partner Aquarius Boat Rentals, I was shown this screen:

As you can see, adding Sensible’s Weather Guarantee is pretty darn simple - just click yes in the dropdown, and it’s automatically added to your purchase price. Pricing of the policy is algorithmically determined based on the likelihood of rain and a multitude of other complicated factors. Depending on the policy you pay for, you can get a full or partial refund paid out by Sensible’s reinsurance partner (importantly, not the merchant or channel partner).

According to Nick, merchants can benefit from Sensible in two ways: 1. Buyers are more likely to buy if they have peace of mind knowing they will be reimbursed for inclement weather 2. Merchants can mark up the cost of the guarantee and actually make additional revenue from selling the policies.

This all seems like the legendary Michael Scott win-win-win.

Standing Together Through the Flames

🔦 Spotlight

To our Los Angeles family,

This week’s wildfires have brought immense pain and hardship to our beloved city. Many of our friends, neighbors, and colleagues have faced evacuations, power outages, and the devastating loss of homes and livelihoods. Our hearts go out to everyone affected by this tragedy.

At dot.LA, we want to express our deepest sympathy to those suffering in this moment. We see your resilience and stand with you during this challenging time. This community has always been defined by its strength and compassion, and now is the time to come together in support.

If You or Someone You Know Has Been Impacted, Resources Are Available:

Evacuation Shelters:

  • Calvary Community Church: 5495 Via Rocas, Westlake Village, CA 91362
  • Ritchie Valens Recreation Center: 10736 Laurel Canyon Blvd., Pacoima, CA 91331
  • Pan Pacific Recreational Center: 7600 Beverly Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90036
  • Westwood Recreation Center: 1350 Sepulveda Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90025
  • Pasadena Civic Auditorium: 300 East Green Street, Pasadena, CA 91101
  • Pomona Fairplex: 1101 W McKinley Ave, Pomona, CA 91768
  • Stoner Recreation Center: 1835 Stoner Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90025

Animal Shelters:

Small Animals:

  • Agoura Animal Care Center: 29525 Agoura Rd, Agoura Hills, CA 91301
  • Baldwin Park Animal Care Center: 4275 Elton St, Baldwin Park, CA 91706
  • Carson Animal Care Center: 216 W Victoria St, Gardena, CA 90248
  • Downey Animal Care Center: 11258 Garfield Ave, Downey, CA 90242
  • Lancaster Animal Care Center: 5210 W Ave I, Lancaster, CA 93536
  • Palmdale Animal Care Center: 38550 Sierra Hwy, Palmdale, CA 93550

Large Animals:

  • Pomona Fairplex: 1101 W McKinley Ave, Pomona
  • Industry Hills Expo: 16200 Temple Ave, City of Industry, CA 91744
  • Antelope Valley Fair: 2551 W Avenue H, Lancaster, CA 93536
  • Los Angeles Equestrian Center: 480 W Riverside Dr, Burbank, CA 91506
  • Pierce College Equestrian Center: 7100 El Rancho Dr, Woodland Hills, CA 91371

Disaster Relief Information:

  • LA County Assessor: Information for property owners and FAQs about disaster relief.

Mental Health Support:

  • Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health: Crisis counseling and support for those affected. Access services through their website or call their hotline at (800) 854-7771.

Temporary Housing Support:

  • Airbnb: In partnership with 211 LA, offering free temporary housing for displaced residents. Spaces are limited; complete the form to be notified of availability.

Transportation Support:

  • Uber: Use promo code WILDFIRE25 for 2 free rides up to $40 each to/from active shelters.
  • Lyft: Code CAFIRERELIEF25 offers 2 rides up to $25 each for up to 500 riders, valid until 1/15.
  • Metro: Fare collection is suspended systemwide.

Staying Informed:

  • Watch Duty App: Provides real-time wildfire tracking, evacuation warnings, and updates.
  • Los Angeles Fire Department Alerts: Visit their website for the latest information on fire status and safety guidelines.

Safety Precautions:

  • Ready, Set, Go!: Personal Wildfire Action Plan by the Los Angeles County Fire Department.

To those in our community who are volunteering, donating, or offering aid in any form—thank you. Your efforts embody the spirit of LA: strong, compassionate, and unstoppable.

At dot.LA, we’re committed to amplifying stories of resilience and support. If you’ve seen inspiring acts of kindness or have resources to share, please let us know. Together, we can shine a light on the incredible ways this community is stepping up during these trying times.

In the days ahead, let’s hold tight to the bonds that unite us and remember that we are stronger together. The fires may scar the land, but they cannot dim the collective spirit of Los Angeles.

We’re here for you, and we’re with you.

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    A Strong Finish to 2024 for LA Tech: Crosscut Ventures Leads the Way

    🔦 Spotlight

    Happy Friday LA!

    As we close the book on 2024, Los Angeles has had a remarkable year in tech and venture capital. From groundbreaking funding rounds to industry-defining innovations, the city’s tech ecosystem has showcased its ability to adapt and thrive. Among the year’s final highlights was the announcement that Crosscut Ventures, one of LA’s premier early-stage venture capital firms, has added Jon Ylvisaker as its newest Partner.

    Crosscut Ventures’ Bold New Direction

    Announced in late December, Jon Ylvisaker’s appointment reflects Crosscut Ventures’ commitment to advancing its focus on the energy transition. Ylvisaker brings decades of experience in driving investments in energy technologies and digital infrastructure. As the founding partner and managing director of Yield Capital Partners, he led investments in startups and established companies shaping the future of sustainability. At Wolfacre Global Management, a Tiger Management hedge fund, he further honed his expertise in supporting impactful climate-focused solutions.

    Brian Garrett, Managing Director and Co-Founder of Crosscut Ventures, said, “Jon's extensive experience in climate and digital infrastructure investments, coupled with his impressive track record of bringing groundbreaking technologies to market, makes him the ideal partner to help lead our focus.”

    Since its founding in 2008, Crosscut has played a key role in shaping LA’s tech landscape. Ylvisaker’s addition reinforces the firm’s commitment to addressing global challenges like energy transition and sustainability, further solidifying its leadership in venture capital innovation.

    What’s Next for LA Tech in 2025

    The momentum from 2024 has set the stage for an even bigger year ahead. Entrepreneurs, investors, and innovators in LA are poised to take on new challenges and create meaningful change across industries.

    As we step into 2025, we want to thank everyone who helped make 2024 such a standout year. Here’s to another year of progress, innovation, and success. From all of us at dot.LA, Happy New Year!

    🤝 Venture Deals

    LA Companies

    • First Resonance, a company specializing in digital manufacturing software through its ION Factory OS, has raised a $20M funding round led by Third Prime with participation from Blue Bear Capital and others. This brings its total funding to $36M and will be used to accelerate product development, grow its customer base, and enhance support for advanced manufacturing sectors like aerospace, robotics, and clean energy. - learn more
    LA Venture Funds
    • Finality Capital Partners led a $17M Seed funding round for ChainOpera AI, a California-based company developing blockchain networks for AI-powered agents and applications, to accelerate product development, expand its team and enhance its blockchain and AI integration capabilities. - learn more

    LA Exits

    • Thirteen Lune, an inclusive beauty e-commerce platform, has been acquired by SNR Capital, marking a significant milestone in the platform's mission to amplify underrepresented beauty brands while fueling its next stage of growth. - learn more
    • Ergobaby, a leading brand in juvenile products known for its high-quality baby carriers, has been acquired by Highlander Partners. The acquisition aims to bolster Ergobaby’s growth, expand its product offerings, and strengthen its position in the parenting solutions market. - learn more

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    Salt AI’s $3M Bet, Snapchat’s Creator Cash, Rivian’s EV Tech, and ŌURA’s $200M Win

    🔦 Spotlight

    Happy Friday, LA - let’s dive right in to this week’s highlights:

    Salt AI, a forward-thinking AI startup based in Los Angeles, has secured a $3 million seed funding round led by Morpheus Ventures with participation from Struck Capital, among others, to tackle the complexity of managing workflows.Salt AI's blog details how its platform centralizes tools like CRM systems, project management software, and data trackers into one interface, eliminating inefficiencies and freeing up teams to focus on meaningful work. With new funding in hand, Salt plans to scale its platform and expand its reach, a move that underscores how AI can solve everyday business challenges.

    Image Source: Salt AI - Aber Whitcomb

    While Salt AI focuses on the workplace, Snapchat is doubling down on creators, with its latest updates introducing revenue-sharing opportunities and direct monetization features. The company’snewsroom update outlines how enhanced analytics will help creators better understand their audiences and sustain their work. The platform's latest updates introduce revenue-sharing opportunities and direct monetization features, along with analytics that give creators deeper insights into their audience. By making it easier for creators to grow and sustain their work, Snapchat positions itself as a key player in the creator economy, offering features that rival platforms like YouTube and TikTok.

    Image Source: Snap

    On the roads, Rivian is redefining what it means to drive an electric vehicle. The company’s latest software update includes advanced route planning, energy management tools, and customization options that make every trip more intuitive and efficient. Additionally, Rivian has introduced new entertainment features, including Google Cast, YouTube, and SiriusXM, as featured in Rivian’ssoftware spotlight, enhancing the in-cabin experience for drivers and passengers alike. This isn’t just about convenience; Rivian is showing how thoughtful software design can elevate the entire EV experience, blending practicality with sophistication.

    Image Source: Rivian

    ŌURA is making headlines with a fresh $200 million Series D funding round, with participation from Fidelity Management & Research Company and Dexcom, which now values the company at $2.55 billion. This investment, as reported byBusiness Wire, highlights the growing demand for wearable health technology and positions ŌURA as a leader in the space. With its sleek design and emphasis on actionable health insights, the funding will enable ŌURA to expand its reach and further integrate wearables into daily health management, strengthening its position in the competitive health tech market. With this funding, ŌURA aims to reach more users and expand its capabilities, further embedding wearables into daily health management.

    Image Source: ŌURA

    Stay tuned as Salt AI, Snapchat, Rivian, and ŌURA continue to evolve, offering us new ways to work, connect, and live better.

    🤝 Venture Deals

      LA Venture Funds
        • Undeterred Capital participated in a $7M Seed funding round for Portal, a Watertown, Mass.-based biotech company specializing in advanced intracellular delivery technology to drive innovations in biological research and cellular therapeutics. - learn more
        • Vamos Ventures participated in a $7.9M Series A funding round for Culina Health, a Hoboken, NJ-based company that provides personalized, science-based virtual nutrition care by connecting patients with registered dietitians, with plans to use the funds to expand its offerings for dietitians and patients, implement AI-driven tools to enhance care efficiency, and strengthen its leadership team through key hires. - learn more
        • Humans Ventures participated in a $3.8M Seed funding round for Hamming.ai, a San Francisco-based company specializing in automated tools for testing and optimizing voice agents, with plans to expand its platform, enhance reliability and perform, and accelerate product development. - learn more
        • Fifth Wall led, with participation from Starshot Capital and others, in a $9.5M Series A funding round for Mojave, a Sunnyvale, CA-based company developing energy-efficient commercial air conditioning technology. The funds will be used to accelerate the adoption of its innovative systems and reduce energy consumption in the cooling industry. - learn more
        • ReMY Investors participated in a $17M Series B funding round for Scripta Insights, a company that leverages data analytics to help employers and healthy plans reduce prescription drug costs, with the funds aimed at expanding its platform and scaling operations. - learn more
        • Mantis VC participated in a $16.5M funding round for Nuon, a company specializing in Bring Your Own Cloud (BYOC) solutions that streamline AI, data, and infrastructure software deployment. The funds will support product development, readiness for general availability in 2025, and efforts to expand customer acquisition. - learn more
        • B Capital participated in a $102M Series C funding round for Precision, a company developing minimally invasive brain-computer interfaces to treat neurological disorders, with plans to use the funds to expand its team, advance clinical research, and refine its AI-powered brain implant for helping users with severe paralysis operate digital devices using their thoughts. - learn more
        • The Games Fund led a $3M Seed funding round for Dark Passenger, a Poland-based game studio founded by veterans of The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077, to create an unannounced, innovative, first-person multiplayer PvPvE stealth-action game set in a distinctive universe inspired by feudal Japan and martial arts cinema. - learn more

            LA Exits

            • Calliope Networks, a generative AI company providing licensed media content like movies, TV shows, and news, has been acquired by Protege to strengthen its platform’s capabilities in advancing AI development. - learn more

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