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Deglobalizing the Solar Industry Would Cost the World At Least $15B by 2030
David Shultz
David Shultz reports on clean technology and electric vehicles, among other industries, for dot.LA. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, Outside, Nautilus and many other publications.
The United States is in quite the pickle when it comes to the solar industry.
On one hand, the Biden administration wants to reduce emissions and hit the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement by installing as much solar power as cheaply and as quickly as possible. On the other hand, the U.S. wants to be a leader in clean energy tech, foster new industries and create new jobs in the sector. To do so, however, the U.S. has to reduce reliance on foreign powers—especially ones with economic and political practices as questionable as China.
And therein lies the issue: China manufactures 78% of the world’s photovoltaic (PV) cells—the key component in solar panels. Switching that production to U.S. soil will cost money and time—two luxuries in short supply in the race against climate change. A new study, published today in Nature, attempts to quantify just how much money globalization has saved the industry to date, and how much it would cost to shift away from the model.
To get a handle on how much money a globalized PV market has saved the world economy so far, researchers began by creating a model that estimated how much China, Germany and the United States (the three leaders in PV tech) learned and benefited from each other between 2008 and 2020. So far, the team calculates that the United States saved $24 billion compared to if it had gradually begun a 10-year transition to domestic-only PV production starting in 2008. Meanwhile, Germany saved $7 billion and China saved $36 billion, for a combined total of $67 billion.
The researchers then used the same model to project forward to 2030. They evaluated two different scenarios. In the first, the three countries continue to ramp up PV production at a rate consistent with the previous decade, while also gradually transitioning away from the globalized PV market to a fully domestic one. The second scenario assumes an even more aggressive expansion of solar energy tech–one that would actually get us closer to the climate targets laid out in the Paris Agreement–but at the same gradual shift away from globalized supply chains. Both scenarios are compared against leaving the industry as is.
Compared to a fully globalized supply chain, in the first scenario 2030 PV prices would be about 20% higher for all three countries, with energy costs increasing from $262 to $320 per kW in the United States. In the second scenario, in which the solar industry grows even more rapidly, the cost of deglobalization increases by another 5% — from $221 per kW to $276 in the United States.
Between 2020 and 2030, the researchers estimate that deglobalizing the PV market would cost the world economy $15 billion under the conservative estimate and as much as $36 billion if we actually build as much solar as the International Energy Agency says we need. In other words, the more aggressively we build out solar energy, the more deglobalization will sting.
Gang He, an assistant professor of energy policy at Stony Brook University and one of the authors of the study, says it’s up to policy makers to decide if that cost is worth paying.
“If countries all want to harvest the domestic benefits, then it gets harder for countries to work together,” says He. “We don't have a solution for that. We just present evidence-based research to show that if we move in that direction, this is what will happen. And we need to find a way to address that.”
One idea is to try to accomplish the shift with a carrot rather than a stick. In other words, instead of blocking the flow of goods or information with tariffs and or quotas, governments could focus on incentivizing domestic purchasing, He says. Incentives and investing would build the U.S. domestic solar industry without artificially inflating the cost of buying Chinese panels and thus limiting how much renewable energy the country can install per dollar. The problem is the gains from the green energy revolution are often distributed unequally.
“We need to introduce policy to redistribute the welfare,” says He. “Maybe it's through redistribution of the revenue or taxes or other mechanisms. It's very complicated, we understand. But simply blocking the global supply chain may not be the answer. No matter what the geopolitics, we still need to find a way to work together. That's the clear message I hope to deliver.”
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David Shultz
David Shultz reports on clean technology and electric vehicles, among other industries, for dot.LA. His writing has appeared in The Atlantic, Outside, Nautilus and many other publications.
Momentum in Motion: IPOs, Partnerships, and Innovation
01:58 PM | December 13, 2024
🔦 Spotlight
Happy Friday, Los Angeles!
Last week, we dove into some of the major moves shaping LA’s tech scene, from ServiceTitan’s IPO ambitions to Anduril’s AI advancements. This week, the story continues with new milestones and updates that reveal how quickly the landscape is evolving. Here’s what’s happening now:
ServiceTitan’s IPO: A Fintech Spark
ServiceTitan’s initial public offering has proven to be a resounding success.The Glendale-based company priced its IPO at $71 per share, significantly above the anticipated range of $52 to $57. On its first trading day, shares opened at $101 and closed at $101.20, marking a 43% increase and valuing the company at nearly $9 billion. This impressive debut underscores ServiceTitan’s growing influence in the trades software space and signals a potential trend for other fintech leaders to watch closely. Read more about ServiceTitan's IPO success here.
Anduril Industries: Expanding the Horizon
We recently covered Anduril’s groundbreaking partnership with OpenAI, emphasizing the growing role of AI in defense. This week, Anduril continues to make headlines with new developments and collaborations that underscore its commitment to reshaping national security and autonomous technology:
- Partnership with Palantir:Anduril and Palantir are teaming up to accelerate AI capabilities in defense. Together, they aim to integrate Palantir’s advanced data analytics with Anduril’s autonomous systems, creating a platform capable of delivering actionable intelligence in real time. This partnership is expected to enhance battlefield decision-making, reduce operational risks, and maintain U.S. leadership in defense technologies. Read more about the partnership here.
- Dive XL Autonomous Submarine: Anduril’s Dive XL submarine is setting new standards for maritime autonomy. This long-endurance unmanned vehicle can operate in harsh underwater environments for extended periods, providing capabilities for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and reconnaissance. With its modular design, Dive XL supports a range of payloads, making it a versatile asset for maritime security. Learn more about Dive XL here.
- Archer VTOL Aircraft Partnership: Anduril’s collaboration with Archer Aviation is pushing the boundaries of autonomous flight technology. This partnership leverages Archer’s expertise in vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft to complement Anduril’s advanced defense systems. By integrating Anduril’s cutting-edge AI capabilities with Archer’s innovative designs, the companies aim to create next-generation solutions for tactical military operations. This partnership reflects a shared commitment to innovation and positions both companies as leaders in reshaping the future of aerial defense. Details about the partnership are available here.
Writers Guild Challenges AI in Hollywood
The Writers Guild of America (WGA) continues its efforts to address the growing influence of AI in entertainment. In recent negotiations, the Guild has pushed for clear boundaries on the use of generative AI in scriptwriting, emphasizing the need to protect writers’ rights and creative integrity. As the industry grapples with the implications of this technology, the WGA’s stance highlights an ongoing effort to balance innovation with fairness in Hollywood. Read more about the Guild’s actions here.
Our thoughts are with the residents of Malibu as they face wildfires fueled by Santa Ana winds, which have displaced many and disrupted communities, including Pepperdine University. For resources during emergencies, explore ourguide to the top tech apps for natural disasters, highlighting tools to support preparation and safety.
From tech breakthroughs to creative industry challenges, the region’s innovation engine shows no signs of slowing. As 2024 approaches, one thing is clear: the momentum isn’t slowing down.
✨ Featured Event ✨
2024 PledgeLA Catalyst Awards
Image Source: Instagram: PledgeLA
Catalyst Awards to Honor Inspiring Entrepreneurs and Emerging Managers in Venture Capital, Catalysts Improving Access to Capital Across Los Angeles
PRINCIPALS AND HOSTS: The Annenberg Foundation and PledgeLA, the initiative launched in 2018 by the Annenberg Foundation and the City of Los Angeles to promote equity and increase access to capital for L.A.-based startups and investors from underrepresented backgrounds.
WHEN: Wednesday, December 18, 2024 at 5:30 p.m. PST.
WHERE: Register to See Address Los Angeles, California
🤝 Venture Deals
LA Venture Funds
- Alpha Edison led a $27M Series A funding round, joined by Acre Venture Partners, ReMY, among others, for One Bio, a UC Davis spinoff based in California that is developing biotech solutions to bridge the dietary fiber gap, with plans to scale production and expand its product offerings. - learn more
- Gideon Strategic Partners participated in a $110M Series C funding round for Capstan Medical, a Santa Cruz-based company developing robotics technology for heart disease treatment, with the funds aimed at advancing clinical trials and preparing for commercialization. - learn more
- Alexandria Venture Investments participated in a $75M financing round to support the formation of nChroma Bio, a new biotechnology company created through the merger of Chroma Medicine and Nvelop Therapeutics, focused on advancing gene-editing therapies for genetic blood disorders. - learn more
- Riot Ventures led a $10.1M Seed funding round for Deterrence, a company developing automated solutions for energetics production, including explosives and propellants, with participation from Impatient Ventures and others, to scale its technology, improve manufacturing efficiency, and meet growing industry demands. - learn more
- Chapter One Ventures participated in a $12M Series A funding round for Hyperbolic, a San Francisco-based AI company specializing in predictive analytics for supply chain optimization, with plans to use the funds to enhance its technology platform and expand its team. - learn more
- Blue Bear Capital participated in a $35M Series C financing round for Raptor Maps, a Boston-based company that provides software solutions for solar asset management. The funds will be used to enhance their AI-driven platform, expand global operations, and support the growing needs of the renewable energy industry. - learn more
- Behind Genius Ventures and Night Ventures, among others, participated in a $3M Pre-Seed funding round for Moldco, a Boston-based company providing digital, evidence-based care, treatments, and lab testing to help individuals reclaim their health from mold toxicity, with plans to use the funds to expand operations nationwide in 2025. - learn more,
- Regeneration.VC co-led a €8M Series A funding round for Orbisk, a Netherlands-based company that develops AI-powered food waste monitoring systems for the hospitality industry, with plans to use the funds to expand internationally and enhance their technology platform - learn more
- Mucker Capital participated in a $17M Series A funding round for Ask Sage, an Arlington, VA-based company offering a generative AI platform for government and commercial sectors, with plans to use the funds to expand its AI capabilities, drive growth, and increase its workforce. - learn more
- Magnify Ventures participated in a $8M Series A funding round for MiSalud Health, digital health platform offering affordable, same-day bilingual telehealth consultations in Spanish and English to better serve Hispanic communities in the U.S. and Mexico. With a focus on improving access for Spanish-speaking individuals, the company aims to address the growing demand for culturally and linguistically appropriate healthcare solutions as the Hispanic population continues to expand rapidly in the U.S.. - learn more
LA Exits
- Elios Vision, a company specializing in innovative glaucoma treatment technologies, has been acquired by Bausch + Lomb to strengthen its portfolio in addressing the needs of glaucoma patients. The acquisition brings Elios Vision's cutting-edge solutions into Bausch + Lomb's comprehensive eye health offerings, expanding its capabilities to provide advanced care for this critical condition. - learn more
- OceanX, a provider of subscription-focused fulfillment and logistics solutions, has been acquired by Cart.com to enhance its end-to-end e-commerce platform and expand its capabilities in subscription management and order fulfillment. - learn more
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Salt AI’s $3M Bet, Snapchat’s Creator Cash, Rivian’s EV Tech, and ŌURA’s $200M Win
11:01 AM | December 20, 2024
🔦 Spotlight
Happy Friday, LA - let’s dive right in to this week’s highlights:
Salt AI, a forward-thinking AI startup based in Los Angeles, has secured a $3 million seed funding round led by Morpheus Ventures with participation from Struck Capital, among others, to tackle the complexity of managing workflows.Salt AI's blog details how its platform centralizes tools like CRM systems, project management software, and data trackers into one interface, eliminating inefficiencies and freeing up teams to focus on meaningful work. With new funding in hand, Salt plans to scale its platform and expand its reach, a move that underscores how AI can solve everyday business challenges.
Image Source: Salt AI - Aber Whitcomb
While Salt AI focuses on the workplace, Snapchat is doubling down on creators, with its latest updates introducing revenue-sharing opportunities and direct monetization features. The company’snewsroom update outlines how enhanced analytics will help creators better understand their audiences and sustain their work. The platform's latest updates introduce revenue-sharing opportunities and direct monetization features, along with analytics that give creators deeper insights into their audience. By making it easier for creators to grow and sustain their work, Snapchat positions itself as a key player in the creator economy, offering features that rival platforms like YouTube and TikTok.
Image Source: Snap
On the roads, Rivian is redefining what it means to drive an electric vehicle. The company’s latest software update includes advanced route planning, energy management tools, and customization options that make every trip more intuitive and efficient. Additionally, Rivian has introduced new entertainment features, including Google Cast, YouTube, and SiriusXM, as featured in Rivian’ssoftware spotlight, enhancing the in-cabin experience for drivers and passengers alike. This isn’t just about convenience; Rivian is showing how thoughtful software design can elevate the entire EV experience, blending practicality with sophistication.
Image Source: Rivian
ŌURA is making headlines with a fresh $200 million Series D funding round, with participation from Fidelity Management & Research Company and Dexcom, which now values the company at $2.55 billion. This investment, as reported byBusiness Wire, highlights the growing demand for wearable health technology and positions ŌURA as a leader in the space. With its sleek design and emphasis on actionable health insights, the funding will enable ŌURA to expand its reach and further integrate wearables into daily health management, strengthening its position in the competitive health tech market. With this funding, ŌURA aims to reach more users and expand its capabilities, further embedding wearables into daily health management.
Image Source: ŌURA
Stay tuned as Salt AI, Snapchat, Rivian, and ŌURA continue to evolve, offering us new ways to work, connect, and live better.
🤝 Venture Deals
LA Venture Funds
- Undeterred Capital participated in a $7M Seed funding round for Portal, a Watertown, Mass.-based biotech company specializing in advanced intracellular delivery technology to drive innovations in biological research and cellular therapeutics. - learn more
- Vamos Ventures participated in a $7.9M Series A funding round for Culina Health, a Hoboken, NJ-based company that provides personalized, science-based virtual nutrition care by connecting patients with registered dietitians, with plans to use the funds to expand its offerings for dietitians and patients, implement AI-driven tools to enhance care efficiency, and strengthen its leadership team through key hires. - learn more
- Humans Ventures participated in a $3.8M Seed funding round for Hamming.ai, a San Francisco-based company specializing in automated tools for testing and optimizing voice agents, with plans to expand its platform, enhance reliability and perform, and accelerate product development. - learn more
- Fifth Wall led, with participation from Starshot Capital and others, in a $9.5M Series A funding round for Mojave, a Sunnyvale, CA-based company developing energy-efficient commercial air conditioning technology. The funds will be used to accelerate the adoption of its innovative systems and reduce energy consumption in the cooling industry. - learn more
- ReMY Investors participated in a $17M Series B funding round for Scripta Insights, a company that leverages data analytics to help employers and healthy plans reduce prescription drug costs, with the funds aimed at expanding its platform and scaling operations. - learn more
- Mantis VC participated in a $16.5M funding round for Nuon, a company specializing in Bring Your Own Cloud (BYOC) solutions that streamline AI, data, and infrastructure software deployment. The funds will support product development, readiness for general availability in 2025, and efforts to expand customer acquisition. - learn more
- B Capital participated in a $102M Series C funding round for Precision, a company developing minimally invasive brain-computer interfaces to treat neurological disorders, with plans to use the funds to expand its team, advance clinical research, and refine its AI-powered brain implant for helping users with severe paralysis operate digital devices using their thoughts. - learn more
- The Games Fund led a $3M Seed funding round for Dark Passenger, a Poland-based game studio founded by veterans of The Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk 2077, to create an unannounced, innovative, first-person multiplayer PvPvE stealth-action game set in a distinctive universe inspired by feudal Japan and martial arts cinema. - learn more
LA Exits
- Calliope Networks, a generative AI company providing licensed media content like movies, TV shows, and news, has been acquired by Protege to strengthen its platform’s capabilities in advancing AI development. - learn more
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